UC Davis at SDSU. Kp says -18. B2B2B for both teams here. SDSU started slow before beating Bryant by 12, then shellacked SUU 70-37. Getting Franklin back helped. SDSU is only 8 deep this year. UC Davis, who lost to both Bryant and SUU, seems a bit deeper, with 9 players logging DD last game. When trying to cap these tourney games, I always look for who will have fresh legs, and who relies on the jumpshot. UC Davis attempted 55 FG, 29 from behind the arc with similar numbers from game 1. Conclusion: a jumpshooting team. SDSU profile has not changed much: rebound, and easy putbacks. SDSU players only logged 20+ minutes each, whereas UC Davis starters logged 21, 24, 28, 33, 34. SDSU is also at home where they drew 11k+ yesterday. Is there cause for concern - sure. So far SDSU has been awful from the FT line, and if you want to cover 20, you normally need to hit FT's, and be focused. And with Baylor on Tuesday, I couldn't recommend a play here. Might take a look at the under.
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MWC
Sunday
UC Davis at SDSU. Kp says -18. B2B2B for both teams here. SDSU started slow before beating Bryant by 12, then shellacked SUU 70-37. Getting Franklin back helped. SDSU is only 8 deep this year. UC Davis, who lost to both Bryant and SUU, seems a bit deeper, with 9 players logging DD last game. When trying to cap these tourney games, I always look for who will have fresh legs, and who relies on the jumpshot. UC Davis attempted 55 FG, 29 from behind the arc with similar numbers from game 1. Conclusion: a jumpshooting team. SDSU profile has not changed much: rebound, and easy putbacks. SDSU players only logged 20+ minutes each, whereas UC Davis starters logged 21, 24, 28, 33, 34. SDSU is also at home where they drew 11k+ yesterday. Is there cause for concern - sure. So far SDSU has been awful from the FT line, and if you want to cover 20, you normally need to hit FT's, and be focused. And with Baylor on Tuesday, I couldn't recommend a play here. Might take a look at the under.
Glad I stayed away. SDSU led by 20 for most of the 2h and then failed to cover at the end, and neither team played any D. Getting to the card later today as that pesky work thing is getting in the way right now with deadlines.
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Glad I stayed away. SDSU led by 20 for most of the 2h and then failed to cover at the end, and neither team played any D. Getting to the card later today as that pesky work thing is getting in the way right now with deadlines.
Hey thanks for the info on the cappers for the differerent conf. the info is greatly appreciated and now makes your thread a must read daily, have a good season and lets get the money.
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Hey thanks for the info on the cappers for the differerent conf. the info is greatly appreciated and now makes your thread a must read daily, have a good season and lets get the money.
SMU @ CSU. KP -4. SMU returns just 2 starters, but seems to have more depth this year. Still, they were a foul prone team, and CSU thrived off that last game, while shooting poorly. Might be a good matchup for the Rams. Waiting on some infor before pulling the trigger.
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MWC Monday
Nev @ UNLV. KP -13. See WAC post.
SMU @ CSU. KP -4. SMU returns just 2 starters, but seems to have more depth this year. Still, they were a foul prone team, and CSU thrived off that last game, while shooting poorly. Might be a good matchup for the Rams. Waiting on some infor before pulling the trigger.
HA actually returns a bunch, and CS north very little. The BR and BP projections have these teams going in opposite directions. Considering travel, it will be tough on CSN. HA shot well last yera and seems poised to improve in other areas with some quality bigs. They should dominate the offensive glass, and if they avoid turning it over a ton, should win by DD. When line is released, I will be on HA
Nevada @ UNLV -13
Most value was lost when Nevada shat themselves in the first game. They are better than that, but this is not the time to get healthy as they face a potential top 10 defense in UNLV. UNLV is the only play here until Nevada proves their shooting struggles will not continue. In fact, an under is in order here. Might UNLV get to 80. Sure, but they might hold Nevada to 60 or under. If they do, I ike my chances with the under 143.5. The frenetic pace (68 possessions) does worry me, so this will be a small play
Fresno @ Stanford -12 (-15)
Stanford should be able to out-athlete Fresno, and dominate the offensive glass. Fresno won an ugly game against Illinois State, and if they struggled to score there, Stanford will pose a big challenge. However, with the line getting away from me, and early games with the backdoor possibility, I will sit this one out.
UCIrv @ SJSU -8 (-6)
Lean Over, but not sure if it will be offered to me. Lean the fav here as well. We are getting an extra possession because SJS got demoished by a solid Cal Poly squad, shooting an abysmal 28%, and 3-14 from beyond the arc. The did get to the line 32 times though - I love that shit. BP projects UC Irvine as worst in Big West, with an 108 defensive efficiency. Sounds like the time to get healthy for the Spartans. DD win.
Plays:
UNLV Under 143.5, 1u
SJSU -6, 3u
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WAC Monday
CSNorth @ HA -10
HA actually returns a bunch, and CS north very little. The BR and BP projections have these teams going in opposite directions. Considering travel, it will be tough on CSN. HA shot well last yera and seems poised to improve in other areas with some quality bigs. They should dominate the offensive glass, and if they avoid turning it over a ton, should win by DD. When line is released, I will be on HA
Nevada @ UNLV -13
Most value was lost when Nevada shat themselves in the first game. They are better than that, but this is not the time to get healthy as they face a potential top 10 defense in UNLV. UNLV is the only play here until Nevada proves their shooting struggles will not continue. In fact, an under is in order here. Might UNLV get to 80. Sure, but they might hold Nevada to 60 or under. If they do, I ike my chances with the under 143.5. The frenetic pace (68 possessions) does worry me, so this will be a small play
Fresno @ Stanford -12 (-15)
Stanford should be able to out-athlete Fresno, and dominate the offensive glass. Fresno won an ugly game against Illinois State, and if they struggled to score there, Stanford will pose a big challenge. However, with the line getting away from me, and early games with the backdoor possibility, I will sit this one out.
UCIrv @ SJSU -8 (-6)
Lean Over, but not sure if it will be offered to me. Lean the fav here as well. We are getting an extra possession because SJS got demoished by a solid Cal Poly squad, shooting an abysmal 28%, and 3-14 from beyond the arc. The did get to the line 32 times though - I love that shit. BP projects UC Irvine as worst in Big West, with an 108 defensive efficiency. Sounds like the time to get healthy for the Spartans. DD win.
Ouch - glad I only played 1u on that Under then. Good luck with the Rams OVER. Might tail.
You were spot on with Bryant over SDSU the other day.
CSU game has dropped 8 points from the open at Pinnacle (132). I only have it at 126, but that coupled with the original oddsmakers number of 132 I had to play it.
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Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:
Ouch - glad I only played 1u on that Under then. Good luck with the Rams OVER. Might tail.
You were spot on with Bryant over SDSU the other day.
CSU game has dropped 8 points from the open at Pinnacle (132). I only have it at 126, but that coupled with the original oddsmakers number of 132 I had to play it.
This is almost strictly a situational play as evidenced by half being on
the first half. Feel that it might take Utah State a few minutes to
get into this game in a letdown spot.
No play on SMU at Fresno, tho I lean Fresno based off how they played last night.
MWC:
Stanford -8, 1u
Too much size on B2B for guard heavy CSU. Those jumpers should fall short by the end.
Wyoming -6.5, 1u
Not a 2u as I didn't get a good line. The line is begging me to take
UNCo. So I do the opposite. There is some talent, inside, on this WY
team, if they can stay on the court and get minutes, and not get
injured (Waddel, Muofeke and transfer Leonard Washington). UNCo is a 3
pt shooting team.
And I ML those three: 1u to win 2u.
Disclaimer: These plays are more situation than breaking down basketball talent. buyer beware.
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YTD 4-2, +2.3u
TUESDAY PLAYS
WAC:
Weber St -3, 1u
Weber ST 1h -1.5, 1u
This is almost strictly a situational play as evidenced by half being on
the first half. Feel that it might take Utah State a few minutes to
get into this game in a letdown spot.
No play on SMU at Fresno, tho I lean Fresno based off how they played last night.
MWC:
Stanford -8, 1u
Too much size on B2B for guard heavy CSU. Those jumpers should fall short by the end.
Wyoming -6.5, 1u
Not a 2u as I didn't get a good line. The line is begging me to take
UNCo. So I do the opposite. There is some talent, inside, on this WY
team, if they can stay on the court and get minutes, and not get
injured (Waddel, Muofeke and transfer Leonard Washington). UNCo is a 3
pt shooting team.
And I ML those three: 1u to win 2u.
Disclaimer: These plays are more situation than breaking down basketball talent. buyer beware.
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