But I did play another out of conference 5u. Feels a bit like chasing,
but it is the right play. If these circumstances, teams, styles, match
up like this, and like they did yesterday, I just gotta play it and let
the chips fall where they may.
Vandy -7, 5u
It is back to -7.5 now, tho this morning it was a t -8.5 when I went to
play it - then it crashed to -7. I searched as much as I could but
could find nothing save some foot soreness for Jenkins. Ezeli is still
out, and I like Cunningham for Orst, but this is a bad matchup. And
fits right into my wheelhouse. What Vandy does, Orst has trouble
defending, and what Orst does Vandy defenses quite well. With Or st
coming off a huge win vs TX, and the tourney on the line, Im gonna roll
with the dores, who are also on my list of play ON teams.
0
Im passing on both.
But I did play another out of conference 5u. Feels a bit like chasing,
but it is the right play. If these circumstances, teams, styles, match
up like this, and like they did yesterday, I just gotta play it and let
the chips fall where they may.
Vandy -7, 5u
It is back to -7.5 now, tho this morning it was a t -8.5 when I went to
play it - then it crashed to -7. I searched as much as I could but
could find nothing save some foot soreness for Jenkins. Ezeli is still
out, and I like Cunningham for Orst, but this is a bad matchup. And
fits right into my wheelhouse. What Vandy does, Orst has trouble
defending, and what Orst does Vandy defenses quite well. With Or st
coming off a huge win vs TX, and the tourney on the line, Im gonna roll
with the dores, who are also on my list of play ON teams.
Line movement in both my plays was a warning. Ignored at my own peril. Onge game ended with the lead extending, and one came down to a final shot - wish I could have reversed that...
YTD 18-9, +7.2u
Boise State +10, 3u
Hawaii -7, 2u
0
Line movement in both my plays was a warning. Ignored at my own peril. Onge game ended with the lead extending, and one came down to a final shot - wish I could have reversed that...
KP -10. BSU rolling. LBst off big win, then OT loss. I might look to grab the pts here. First away game for BSU, tho. BSU has been thrasing people by shooting a bunch of three's and at a great clip. Despite LBst good start, they are allowing 39% from behind the arc. I normally don't like to bet ON teams that rely on 3's - hard to cap. But this certainly looks like BSU will score. and LBst should score as well in an up tempo game. I lean Over (kp has it at 148), and BSU. If BSU hits a decent clip from 3, they should cover.
SDak@ WY
KP -4. Lined?
Cal Poly@UNLV
KP -13. Might be dipping into the well one too many times, but a 1h play seems logical. UNLV should be able to run when they force turnovers, even though Cal Poly is complete gridlock. And this game should set up UNLV nicely to face USC next who plays a similarly gridlock style.
Ewash@ HA.
KP-5. Ewash has played OR and the Zags close - holding 2h leads. They heave up a ton of threes' - ranked #1 there. Unfortunately for Ewash, HA is ranked 37th only allowing 24% from behind the arc so far - under 33% last year so this is not totally a function of sample size. Stylistically, and being home makes me lean HA pretty hard, only thing holding me back for committing is if the net effect of playing those teams close gives Ewash something to build on.
Line opens at -7. Gotta pay an extra bucket to play HA. Sign me up.
KP -5.
ManH @ CSU
KP -8. Prolly a mistake going against the Rams at home in a winnable game but TXSA had the lead in the second half late. Passing was probably the best bet there. Now on B2B, this guard heavy team goes back out there vs. Manhattan. Co on deck for CSU but a full week away. And I couldn't have been more off on the FSU/Manhattan game last night, as both teams ran - 75 possessions, and scored at will. Dangerous to lay pts with guard heavy teams on B2B. I faded CSU in this spot last time and won, but I can't count on Manhattan, Pass.
Tuesday leans:
BSU + 10 1h UNLV -8? HA -7
Wednesday
SDSU @ AZ. KP -6
KP -6. I have AZ as a team to fade. SDSU will finally get some rest. They have to be feeling good about themselves in the early going. Looking to grab the pts here.
CO @ AF
KP-1. "Big 12 opponents made half of their two-point attempts in 2011 and the cast of characters on the front line doesn’t change a whole lot this season." AS AF is traditionally #1 in 2 pt efficiency, seems like a bad matchup for an offensive oriented CO team.
Leans: SDSU +6??? AF -1???
Thursday
Sclara@ NM
KP -9. FTA/FGA numbers point to NM. But where is the rebounding? UC SB scorched this team, and NM should do the same, but something has not been right. Maye a solid win vs ASU will set them in the right direction.
CMU @NMst
KP -8. CMU can play a bit of defense, but you gotta score to keep up with NMst. NMst has played better D this year than even I expected, and their offense is rolling. If they could just hit better than 64% from the stripe and cut down on TO, this could be a NCAA team.
Leans: NM -9?? NMst -8??
Friday
BYU v. Nev (neutral)
KP +6. I don't feel like I have a good read on either of these teams - based on what I have seen thius far, I would lean the over.
0
Tuesday
BSU @ LBst
KP -10. BSU rolling. LBst off big win, then OT loss. I might look to grab the pts here. First away game for BSU, tho. BSU has been thrasing people by shooting a bunch of three's and at a great clip. Despite LBst good start, they are allowing 39% from behind the arc. I normally don't like to bet ON teams that rely on 3's - hard to cap. But this certainly looks like BSU will score. and LBst should score as well in an up tempo game. I lean Over (kp has it at 148), and BSU. If BSU hits a decent clip from 3, they should cover.
SDak@ WY
KP -4. Lined?
Cal Poly@UNLV
KP -13. Might be dipping into the well one too many times, but a 1h play seems logical. UNLV should be able to run when they force turnovers, even though Cal Poly is complete gridlock. And this game should set up UNLV nicely to face USC next who plays a similarly gridlock style.
Ewash@ HA.
KP-5. Ewash has played OR and the Zags close - holding 2h leads. They heave up a ton of threes' - ranked #1 there. Unfortunately for Ewash, HA is ranked 37th only allowing 24% from behind the arc so far - under 33% last year so this is not totally a function of sample size. Stylistically, and being home makes me lean HA pretty hard, only thing holding me back for committing is if the net effect of playing those teams close gives Ewash something to build on.
Line opens at -7. Gotta pay an extra bucket to play HA. Sign me up.
KP -5.
ManH @ CSU
KP -8. Prolly a mistake going against the Rams at home in a winnable game but TXSA had the lead in the second half late. Passing was probably the best bet there. Now on B2B, this guard heavy team goes back out there vs. Manhattan. Co on deck for CSU but a full week away. And I couldn't have been more off on the FSU/Manhattan game last night, as both teams ran - 75 possessions, and scored at will. Dangerous to lay pts with guard heavy teams on B2B. I faded CSU in this spot last time and won, but I can't count on Manhattan, Pass.
Tuesday leans:
BSU + 10 1h UNLV -8? HA -7
Wednesday
SDSU @ AZ. KP -6
KP -6. I have AZ as a team to fade. SDSU will finally get some rest. They have to be feeling good about themselves in the early going. Looking to grab the pts here.
CO @ AF
KP-1. "Big 12 opponents made half of their two-point attempts in 2011 and the cast of characters on the front line doesn’t change a whole lot this season." AS AF is traditionally #1 in 2 pt efficiency, seems like a bad matchup for an offensive oriented CO team.
Leans: SDSU +6??? AF -1???
Thursday
Sclara@ NM
KP -9. FTA/FGA numbers point to NM. But where is the rebounding? UC SB scorched this team, and NM should do the same, but something has not been right. Maye a solid win vs ASU will set them in the right direction.
CMU @NMst
KP -8. CMU can play a bit of defense, but you gotta score to keep up with NMst. NMst has played better D this year than even I expected, and their offense is rolling. If they could just hit better than 64% from the stripe and cut down on TO, this could be a NCAA team.
Leans: NM -9?? NMst -8??
Friday
BYU v. Nev (neutral)
KP +6. I don't feel like I have a good read on either of these teams - based on what I have seen thius far, I would lean the over.
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