Two basically new teams from top to bottom. At least BSU has some Frosh who played well in limited minutes, and appear to have soime solid bigs, Utah has bigs as well, but BSU should win that battle. They should win the backcourt, too. Only play here would be on the home team.
NM st @ NM -12 (-12.5) O 141.5
After a big win with NMst, it is tempting to be involved in this game. I know the personnel as well as you can this early. 81 possessions in UNCo game. NMSt got to the line 41 times, on 29 fouls committed by UNCo. McKines and Kabongo led the way, with solid efforts by Larouche (5-1 A/TO) and Sy. In short, this team played as I expected it to. They hit the boards, get to the line, and miss too much from there! When you look and see UNCo with 75, makes you think the D is suspect, but that is .95 efficiency at 81 possessions. This is NM first real game, but the return a bunch so last year's numbers are telling. These teams played B2B, a week apart, with NM winning both. @NMst in OT, and then they really controlled the game and slowed the tempo a bit in game 2 winning by 16 at home. Both games saw 140+ in regulation. NMst will have a hard time stopping NM consistently so they will have to try and outscore them. Not sure how interested I am in the side - but I would play over 140. KP has it at 142 in 67 possessions.
SJS @ USF, -11 (-12)
SJS has yet to score more than 52 pts. in 70 POSSESSIONS! If UC Irvine stopped em, a solid SF team should stifle them as well. I am alwasy leary of betting on a team after losing a bet on them. They are bound to play better soon - have a feeling it might be on Nov 22 against Holy Names ?!?
Plays
NM Over 141.5, 2u
BSU -7, 2u
SF -12, 1u
0
YTD: 7-2, +8.3u
Wednesday
Utah @ BSU -1(-6 WOW)
Two basically new teams from top to bottom. At least BSU has some Frosh who played well in limited minutes, and appear to have soime solid bigs, Utah has bigs as well, but BSU should win that battle. They should win the backcourt, too. Only play here would be on the home team.
NM st @ NM -12 (-12.5) O 141.5
After a big win with NMst, it is tempting to be involved in this game. I know the personnel as well as you can this early. 81 possessions in UNCo game. NMSt got to the line 41 times, on 29 fouls committed by UNCo. McKines and Kabongo led the way, with solid efforts by Larouche (5-1 A/TO) and Sy. In short, this team played as I expected it to. They hit the boards, get to the line, and miss too much from there! When you look and see UNCo with 75, makes you think the D is suspect, but that is .95 efficiency at 81 possessions. This is NM first real game, but the return a bunch so last year's numbers are telling. These teams played B2B, a week apart, with NM winning both. @NMst in OT, and then they really controlled the game and slowed the tempo a bit in game 2 winning by 16 at home. Both games saw 140+ in regulation. NMst will have a hard time stopping NM consistently so they will have to try and outscore them. Not sure how interested I am in the side - but I would play over 140. KP has it at 142 in 67 possessions.
SJS @ USF, -11 (-12)
SJS has yet to score more than 52 pts. in 70 POSSESSIONS! If UC Irvine stopped em, a solid SF team should stifle them as well. I am alwasy leary of betting on a team after losing a bet on them. They are bound to play better soon - have a feeling it might be on Nov 22 against Holy Names ?!?
Pittsburgh is overrated and Long Beach State has 4 seniors this year that need to make a statement for the NCAA tourney. Expect this game to be tight all the way down and I believe LBS can actually win, should be close enough to cover 14 points at least (buy the half point fellas).
Indiana (-4) @ Evansville
I bought the two points to make it -2 but I believe -3 would be fine. Don't be fooled by the OT win over Butler, it is a rebuilding year for Butler. Also, Tom Crean has a lot on the line and he has the better team in this matchup. I don't particularly like Indiana's team without Maurice Creek but the matchup here easily favors Indiana and is not purely name recognition. (By the way Butler should have won the game they blew it) Take Indiana.
Lean- Boise State over Utah (-6), Boise State is at home and the lineup Utah is trotting out couldn't beat D-II teams. I take the home team but I wish the line was lower, will buy points to make it -3 if I get a chance but line is on the move...
0
I like some good matchups tonight. Picks:
Long Beach State (+13.5)@ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is overrated and Long Beach State has 4 seniors this year that need to make a statement for the NCAA tourney. Expect this game to be tight all the way down and I believe LBS can actually win, should be close enough to cover 14 points at least (buy the half point fellas).
Indiana (-4) @ Evansville
I bought the two points to make it -2 but I believe -3 would be fine. Don't be fooled by the OT win over Butler, it is a rebuilding year for Butler. Also, Tom Crean has a lot on the line and he has the better team in this matchup. I don't particularly like Indiana's team without Maurice Creek but the matchup here easily favors Indiana and is not purely name recognition. (By the way Butler should have won the game they blew it) Take Indiana.
Lean- Boise State over Utah (-6), Boise State is at home and the lineup Utah is trotting out couldn't beat D-II teams. I take the home team but I wish the line was lower, will buy points to make it -3 if I get a chance but line is on the move...
BSU was money. But NMst played way better D than I thought they could in the PIT. And then SJS showed up for the first time this year. It's early and small units.
Selvig listed as OUT for MT. Think UNLV does its usual thing against little competition. Think
Nevada builds on a great 2h vs UNLV and demolishes poor 1% returning
Pacific. SDSU will keep USC in check, under 52. Only thing derails
that is tired legs. Early in season, tho. Denver is a HC play - they
are ridiculously tough at home. E Wash...well, my big sky guy (gonzo) said so.
0
Mavs - great calls on those two last night!
BSU was money. But NMst played way better D than I thought they could in the PIT. And then SJS showed up for the first time this year. It's early and small units.
Selvig listed as OUT for MT. Think UNLV does its usual thing against little competition. Think
Nevada builds on a great 2h vs UNLV and demolishes poor 1% returning
Pacific. SDSU will keep USC in check, under 52. Only thing derails
that is tired legs. Early in season, tho. Denver is a HC play - they
are ridiculously tough at home. E Wash...well, my big sky guy (gonzo) said so.
Hey Stevo - good to see you. Lets make some cash this season. But please dont burn money in my thread. A thumbs down is sufficient - its just a friggin loss.
Hey Stevo - good to see you. Lets make some cash this season. But please dont burn money in my thread. A thumbs down is sufficient - its just a friggin loss.
I have my tent pitched to play a UTEP ticket after that HUGE win vs. NM
in the pit. And I have done no research into UTEP yet.
Ok, UTEP is totally rebuilding - frankly the write-up in BP made me
nervous. Fascinated by what line we get. This may be a 1h play for me
as NMst might wake and roll in 2h. I will wait til it gets banged up.
And it was 10 when I woke.
Played 1h UTEP +5.5, 2u
Gonzaga v HA +12.5 in Canada. KP +11
Cashed with HA last time. Gonzaga hasn't quite played to potential in
the early going. Apparetnly people think they will start tonight. I
like this scrappy HA team, but I think the Zags will handle them easily -
will it in the end be by 13 or more? Nothing would support that yet so
I will pass.
Smiss @ CSU -6.5. KP -5
Looks like lines are being adjusted for CSU early season success. Smiss
returns its point guard, but that is it. Preseason says this is a
relatively even matchup. CSU ran out of gas in its last game vs the
bigger more well rested Stanford as I predicted. I would certainly lean
CSU here, but with CO on deck, I am gonna pass.
LBst@SDSU -3. KP -3. Wow what a gift. I know that SDSU had a last
second win vs USC, but LBst's win trumps that. Gonna be hard to NOT be
on the aztecs here.
And it even got better as this got bet to -2.
SDSU -2, 3u
WY @ WiscGB -6. KP -9
Paying a premium to take WY. You know how I like paying premiums! But
not in this case. GB is better than they have shown, get to play at
home. WY first road game. WY has been a nice early story, but they get
smoked here.
WiscGB -6, 2u
CS North @ BSU -13. KP -10
More paying premiums. I played the first half. BSU and CS North are
going in opposite directions, but in the end BSU isn't great, tho CS
north is awful. With LBst next for BSU, I played the 1h instead.
1h BSU -7, 2u
SJS @ Santa Clara -8.5. KP -8.
SJS is a no play as I lost 2 in a row on them.
0
Saturday
UTEP at NMst -8.5. KP -7
I have my tent pitched to play a UTEP ticket after that HUGE win vs. NM
in the pit. And I have done no research into UTEP yet.
Ok, UTEP is totally rebuilding - frankly the write-up in BP made me
nervous. Fascinated by what line we get. This may be a 1h play for me
as NMst might wake and roll in 2h. I will wait til it gets banged up.
And it was 10 when I woke.
Played 1h UTEP +5.5, 2u
Gonzaga v HA +12.5 in Canada. KP +11
Cashed with HA last time. Gonzaga hasn't quite played to potential in
the early going. Apparetnly people think they will start tonight. I
like this scrappy HA team, but I think the Zags will handle them easily -
will it in the end be by 13 or more? Nothing would support that yet so
I will pass.
Smiss @ CSU -6.5. KP -5
Looks like lines are being adjusted for CSU early season success. Smiss
returns its point guard, but that is it. Preseason says this is a
relatively even matchup. CSU ran out of gas in its last game vs the
bigger more well rested Stanford as I predicted. I would certainly lean
CSU here, but with CO on deck, I am gonna pass.
LBst@SDSU -3. KP -3. Wow what a gift. I know that SDSU had a last
second win vs USC, but LBst's win trumps that. Gonna be hard to NOT be
on the aztecs here.
And it even got better as this got bet to -2.
SDSU -2, 3u
WY @ WiscGB -6. KP -9
Paying a premium to take WY. You know how I like paying premiums! But
not in this case. GB is better than they have shown, get to play at
home. WY first road game. WY has been a nice early story, but they get
smoked here.
WiscGB -6, 2u
CS North @ BSU -13. KP -10
More paying premiums. I played the first half. BSU and CS North are
going in opposite directions, but in the end BSU isn't great, tho CS
north is awful. With LBst next for BSU, I played the 1h instead.
My
largest play of the year. Awful matchup for PSU. USF gets to the line
as their primary method of scoring. PSU is a foul waiting to happen. I
have a big FADE on PSU at the start as they lost Battle and everyone
else - only returning 13 pts a game. All that combines to equal 5UNITS.
0
Just one big play
USF -2, 5u
USF -2, 5u
My
largest play of the year. Awful matchup for PSU. USF gets to the line
as their primary method of scoring. PSU is a foul waiting to happen. I
have a big FADE on PSU at the start as they lost Battle and everyone
else - only returning 13 pts a game. All that combines to equal 5UNITS.
Lost USF when Gilchrist got hurt. Impossible to cap that.
Monday
TX SA @ CSU -5
KP -3. TX SA returns most everything. Beaten UTEP, Oral Roberts, and lost in OT to Ok st. This was a team that made the tourney last year. This is in CO, so that seems to be the reason for the line love. CSU shot really well for 2.5 games, but has begun its recession to the mean in the 2h vs Stanford, and in a bad loss at home to smiss. When I saw this I was thinking that CSU looked overpriced, and therefore pretty good, but after looking into the game, I lean the opposite way. Waiting on Gonzo to comment.
Manhattan v. Fresno - 4.5 neutral
KP -2. Two new coaches. Manhattan returns a lot from a bad team, with a few guys who did not play last year due to injury. FSU returns under half its minutes. Both teams have played poor offense and passable D so far this year. Both forcing a good amount of TO so far. Might have to finally fund my 5 dimes to get the O/U. KP has it at 124. at 64 possessions, with the offesnive efficiency we have seen so far, this goes way under in a 55-53 type game.
0
YTD 18-7, +15u
Lost USF when Gilchrist got hurt. Impossible to cap that.
Monday
TX SA @ CSU -5
KP -3. TX SA returns most everything. Beaten UTEP, Oral Roberts, and lost in OT to Ok st. This was a team that made the tourney last year. This is in CO, so that seems to be the reason for the line love. CSU shot really well for 2.5 games, but has begun its recession to the mean in the 2h vs Stanford, and in a bad loss at home to smiss. When I saw this I was thinking that CSU looked overpriced, and therefore pretty good, but after looking into the game, I lean the opposite way. Waiting on Gonzo to comment.
Manhattan v. Fresno - 4.5 neutral
KP -2. Two new coaches. Manhattan returns a lot from a bad team, with a few guys who did not play last year due to injury. FSU returns under half its minutes. Both teams have played poor offense and passable D so far this year. Both forcing a good amount of TO so far. Might have to finally fund my 5 dimes to get the O/U. KP has it at 124. at 64 possessions, with the offesnive efficiency we have seen so far, this goes way under in a 55-53 type game.
I am having a hard time getting a good read on this Rams team. They have a bunch of pretty good guards, but nothing in the middle. Paul Horning was doing a petty good job inside, but was out last game and will still be out for this game. And one of their best defenders, Dwight Smith is also out. CSU just don't play defense. They are pretty good on offense, but there is no effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Roadrunners are very experienced and can also put up pts. They are pretty bad on defense and a terrible rebounding team, so match-up wise, pretty even. The experience goes to the road team and home court to the Rams (not much of an advantage-Moby will be 80% full). I think I like the pts and maybe an Over play?
0
I am having a hard time getting a good read on this Rams team. They have a bunch of pretty good guards, but nothing in the middle. Paul Horning was doing a petty good job inside, but was out last game and will still be out for this game. And one of their best defenders, Dwight Smith is also out. CSU just don't play defense. They are pretty good on offense, but there is no effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Roadrunners are very experienced and can also put up pts. They are pretty bad on defense and a terrible rebounding team, so match-up wise, pretty even. The experience goes to the road team and home court to the Rams (not much of an advantage-Moby will be 80% full). I think I like the pts and maybe an Over play?
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Good Work bud!
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