Posted:
#76
BOL KP
0
2011-2012 College Basketball Season
Posted:
#81
Hey Guys, thanks so much for the support - no plays for today (although it is funny that these three games will probably be some of the most well-researched and thought out games some people will bet all season long!).
My focus is on Friday and I'll try to chime in as early as possible. Please understand that my style of handicapping is very "stats-based" so, in theory, my methods and modalities should get better as the season goes along (as they have done the last two years).
In my personal life, I subscribe to the "theory of opposites." In a nutshell, this theory states that you should see what "everyone" (i.e. most people) are doing and do the opposite and you will be successful. Everyone eats fast food, so I rarely do. Most people don't workout, so I exercise daily, so on and so forth, so in that vein . . .
Most people ask the question, "which teams are going to be good this season" so I do the opposite and say "which teams are going to be bad this season."
More importantly, I ask "which teams that people think will be bad, might be better than expected" (think St. Peter's from last season). Also, "which teams that people expect to be good (or atleast average to decent) will be worse than expected" (think Houston from last season).
I am going to be forming options on teams based on the information out there and betting accordingly. As everyone who is studying the MAAC knows, Iona and Fairfield should be top of the contenders for the league title, but I'm spending the majority of my time studying Canisius and Manhattan etc. and forming opinions on those teams. Here is a clip from Manhattan's new head coach about how the practices are going so far: espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/id/7129235/new-manhattan-college-coach-steve-masiello-shaking-jaspers-up
Two things I forgot to mention in the original post:
First, get the lines AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, if you plan on betting college hoops all season, you need to get the lines early before they adjust, that will literally be the difference between a winning or losing season. Inevitably, people will come into a thread late and ask "The line has moved, should I still play it" my threads are only about the line I GET and if you are asking about if you should take a "worse line" than I say absolutely not. Also, because these games are so unattractive, its hard to predict which way the lines and totals will go, if you can get a better line GET IT AND DONT OVER THINK IT. No one is setting a "trap" on Marist vs. Rider.
Secondly, I bet football for fun (i.e. watch the games, cuss at the tv, jump around when my team does well and probably be lucky to break even - but its a fun hobby for me to do as I love to watch football), but I bet basketball for profit (in other words, I suggest NOT watching the games we will be betting on as they might bring about a nervous breakdown). Also, some of these bets will lose SPECTACULARLY early on, please don't make the mistake of believing that is some sort of "double dishonor." If I had the choice, I would want ALL my losing bets to be by double digits!
Thanks for the support, we are all in this together.
My focus is on Friday and I'll try to chime in as early as possible. Please understand that my style of handicapping is very "stats-based" so, in theory, my methods and modalities should get better as the season goes along (as they have done the last two years).
In my personal life, I subscribe to the "theory of opposites." In a nutshell, this theory states that you should see what "everyone" (i.e. most people) are doing and do the opposite and you will be successful. Everyone eats fast food, so I rarely do. Most people don't workout, so I exercise daily, so on and so forth, so in that vein . . .
Most people ask the question, "which teams are going to be good this season" so I do the opposite and say "which teams are going to be bad this season."
More importantly, I ask "which teams that people think will be bad, might be better than expected" (think St. Peter's from last season). Also, "which teams that people expect to be good (or atleast average to decent) will be worse than expected" (think Houston from last season).
I am going to be forming options on teams based on the information out there and betting accordingly. As everyone who is studying the MAAC knows, Iona and Fairfield should be top of the contenders for the league title, but I'm spending the majority of my time studying Canisius and Manhattan etc. and forming opinions on those teams. Here is a clip from Manhattan's new head coach about how the practices are going so far: espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/id/7129235/new-manhattan-college-coach-steve-masiello-shaking-jaspers-up
Two things I forgot to mention in the original post:
First, get the lines AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, if you plan on betting college hoops all season, you need to get the lines early before they adjust, that will literally be the difference between a winning or losing season. Inevitably, people will come into a thread late and ask "The line has moved, should I still play it" my threads are only about the line I GET and if you are asking about if you should take a "worse line" than I say absolutely not. Also, because these games are so unattractive, its hard to predict which way the lines and totals will go, if you can get a better line GET IT AND DONT OVER THINK IT. No one is setting a "trap" on Marist vs. Rider.
Secondly, I bet football for fun (i.e. watch the games, cuss at the tv, jump around when my team does well and probably be lucky to break even - but its a fun hobby for me to do as I love to watch football), but I bet basketball for profit (in other words, I suggest NOT watching the games we will be betting on as they might bring about a nervous breakdown). Also, some of these bets will lose SPECTACULARLY early on, please don't make the mistake of believing that is some sort of "double dishonor." If I had the choice, I would want ALL my losing bets to be by double digits!
Thanks for the support, we are all in this together.
0
Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Thanks for the support, we are all in this together.
Thanks for the support, we are all in this together.
Outstanding philosophy, Professor!I'll be tail'n ya, for sure!
I've been doing well with bets in NCAAF, NFL and NHL -- hit-and-run bets, here and there, doubling up whenever I can, so it's been a good season, so far.
Thank you very much for being here and sharing your philosophy and picks.
NCAAF players play harder and are more motivated than NBA, right? I hate betting NBA, as those guys just don't seem to have much fire... so if the NBA season does not happen at all, I won't miss a frikk'n bit. Spoiled jackasses, they are.
0
Posted:
#86
I cant watch the games you put us on,it will drive a crazy person nuts,lol.
Good to see you back KP,hope you dont lose your first game,all the new guys will be saying how you suck and fade this guy and so on,so heres to a good start and year,
and yes I tail this guy blindly on his picks,for the new boys and Girls.
Good to see you back KP,hope you dont lose your first game,all the new guys will be saying how you suck and fade this guy and so on,so heres to a good start and year,
and yes I tail this guy blindly on his picks,for the new boys and Girls.
0
Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
hope you dont lose your first game,all the new guys will be saying how you suck and fade this guy and so on
hope you dont lose your first game,all the new guys will be saying how you suck and fade this guy and so on
I think even as a new guy on this forum, I am smart enough to know that one (or even 10) plays don't mean anything about the quality of the capper :)
It's all about long-term ROI of course, and if experienced Covers-posters tell that this guy is good, I believe that :)
0
Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
He usually wins,but its a new year,plus no NBA,should have some added degenerates in the College forum this year,
He usually wins,but its a new year,plus no NBA,should have some added degenerates in the College forum this year,
Ah well, if people like you tell that this man knows his business and knows what he is talking about, I trust that we should be in for a winning season 
0
Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by DAAKING:
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under.
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under. Because if you are good you have a pick every day?
0
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by DAAKING:
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under.
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under. Loser
0
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by DAAKING:
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under.
if you have no pick and your that good, that just means your not willing to risk you rep on the beginnig season of College basketball. As a true NCAA basketball capper you would have done your due diligence and already been prepared for the fist week. VALPO+ pts and the under. Are you kidding? Did you read anything KP said? He is a great capper and only plays spots where he sees a true advantage. He is also focused on two specific conferences.
You should know that someone who does NOT pick plays every night is almost always 10 times the handicapper that someone who has to be every game will be.
Glad to have you back KineP. I'll try to contribute as much as I can to your threads this year!
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