Week 2 Indigo lines, discussion

Having a Groundhog Day moment Hoody?...lol.

Ha Ha Ha I don't know why it does that.

Using your Alouettes query =18-4 ATS

line>0 and line<4 and A and week<6 and on:D and onn:D

one of the 4 losses came in week 6 when that dog was 0-5 SU, technically one can omit that game this week =18-3 ATS

gimmethedog has this, forewarned

Thanks Spottie,...nice one!

Here's some more support for the Argonauts.

Week two teams off a week one bye playing a team that played in week one 1-4 ATS (-15.8)

game number=1 and week=2 and o:game number=2

I have the Argos as dogs next game at BC and then at home to the Bombers.  Teams that are home favorites that will be dogs their next two games have been 38-91 ATS (-6.3) and 57-71 straight up (-1.6)

HF and n:D and nn:D and nn:playoffs=0

This moves to 18-55 ATS  (-9.0) and 28-45 straight up (-4.2) in divisional games

"Here's some support for the Argonauts"....is obviously incorrect...meant to say support for the Alouettes.

I am on the Celtics -3' game six.

Plays:

1)  Celtics -3'

2)  Ottawa +6, -120

3)  Toronto +3

4)  Toronto Over 47'

5)  Calgary +2

Last year, about 3/4 of the time when there was a difference between the opening betting line and Indigo's,  public betting moved the line towards mine.  We'll keep an eye on this, this year.....out of the four side betting lines this week, only Calgary's line that opened at +2.5 has moved away from my line of +4, to +1....the others all moved towards mine...it's something to consider that if the bookmaker's line varies from Indigo openers to wait for the public to move the opening line towards mine.

Is it predictive?....week 1 Indigo openers were not very good, with the Ottawa line moving waaaay away as did Edmonton's.

And what if it doesn't move that towards mine?....that is something yet to be determined......Calgary and its related line move  is making me nervous.....the angles support Calgary pretty strongly, but the public is all over the Stamps.

Plays:

1)  Celtics -3'

2)  Ottawa +6, -120

3)  Toronto +3  ==== Alouettes

4)  Toronto Over 47'

5)  Calgary +2

Are your crystal balls giving you misguided info?

I would like to Winnipeg win again.  Keep the notion that they are once again elite.  They still are good but they will have more struggles this season.  Interesting game. Your +6 is nice.

Ja, brain cramp, sorry to the 10s of thousands that are following....keeping me honest, that's good.

1)  Celtics -3'

2)  Ottawa +6, -120

3)  Alouettes +3, -105

4)  Toronto Over 47'

5)  Calgary +2

6)  Ottawa UNDER 44

ha ha ha 

Ok, I wish to do something never before done here, and perhaps never done in the history of the world.....I am going to make a future line for the games next week.  This is an exercise to see how our perceptions will change after one previous game.  Perhaps this will be indicative of a pattern as we go through the season.  Most of us would accept that we base a lot of our thinking based on what has happened most recently, or recency bias.  Inherently savvy bettors would probably guess that going AGAINST recent results would be more profitable from a betting perspective.  However, I have never spent a season putting this down and actually seeing if this would be profitable, or perhaps the opposite is true.

I'll still put out my lines for these as I normally do for week 3 after week two's games are completed and then compare.

I am not be making a line based on what I think Vegas (or Ontario) will make the line at, but what my perception of what the real relative strength of the teams are.  And of course I expect there to be some huge differences of what these lines are and what they actually are for next games....then it will be up to me, and you to figure out if that type of thing is signifcant.

Next week Indigo lines

Home                   Away

Montreal +2' 45    Saskatchewan

Winnipeg -3' 43    Hamilton

Calgary   -10 52   Edmonton

BC           -2' 50   Toronto

For this week, a team that is an away dog that will be a favorite of over 7 points next week (Stamps this week) has been 37-25 ATS, however if that away dog has more wins than their this week's opponent, this drops to 10-12 ATS, so nothing particularly enticing there.

Keep in mind in the CFL that away dogs with the lesser wins than their present opponent have covered 56% of the time, whereas teams with  greater wins (Riders this week) have covered only slightly above 50% of the time.  Away dogs with equal wins (Montreal this week) have covered 57% of the time.

Consider for the CFL to take the lesser team as away dogs or at least contemplate using it as a filter to get off a play.

next week, won't know for sure until after this wk.

Sas -2 to -3

Win -6 to -7.5

Cal -13

BC  -3.5 

I'm going to try this in your thread, for Cal 0-10    TY

For you puckheads out there.....Colorado wins game one in overtime in a pretty incredible game....this is gonna be a LONG series as the champs showed their mettle in coming back from a two goal deficit.  I had the Avs, so I am momentary pleased that the gambling gods shined down on me.

So, how have NHL playoff teams done as away dogs when losing game one of their series in overtime?

The answer is......... (drum roll) pretty dang good.

They've been 19-14 straight up (with an average line of +149.9, 5.19 o/u) for a return on investment of 45.5%...average score was 2.58-2.45...these teams have been 11-17-5 o/u, with those betting periods seeing the OVER in the second period go 21-13 OVER.  Those away dogs on the puckline have gone 26-7.

However, when there is more than one day's rest involved as it is in this case, the away dog has been 2-4 (-28.33% ROI) and 4-1-1 OVER (+1.33)....those teams on the puckline (+1.5) have been 4-2.  The first and  second periods both have been high scoring, each going 4-2 OVER.

And, for those that wish to check this out for themselves on gimmethedog......here you go.............

AD and p:overtime>0 and playoffs=1 and p:ADL and ppo:team!=o:team and po:team=o:team and p:playoffs=1

I lean to the LIghtning to win at least one of the next two games, right now in series game two the Lightning are at +134.

Weather forecasts suggest lower scoring for 3 games.  Ottawa's risk of thunderstorms with wind 27-57 km/h.  Hamilton's sunny with wind 28-42 km/h.  Edmonton's rainy with wind 23-35 km/h.  Besides, trends tend to favor total unders in past meetings.

Thanks for the heads up 3P!

Betting percentages KOC.....I've discussed this before....it's very difficult to know from other sites what the betting population is on.  With the KOC contest you know, and there is zero motivation to manipulate the data.  I think it is the most accurate description of what the public is thinking.

Game 1  Toronto 69%     OVER 57%

Game 2 Ottawa 62%      UNDER 59%.....the public is on OVERs 75% of the time in the CFL, so this is highly unusual we find this high of a percentage on an UNDER.

Game 3 Hamilton 48%   OVER 59%......this whole game and the line seems fishy to me....makes me feel uneasy being involved in this game.....I bought out....I may decide to play the UNDER, not sure yet.

Game 4 Edmonton 25% OVER 57%.....the home opener for the Elks, they'll bring the effort, for sure, but they're gonna have to show me something first before I open my wallet to back them in the future.

Plays:

1)  Celtics -3'

2)  Alouettes +3, -105

3)  Alouettes OVER 47'

4)  Redblacks +6, -120.....from what I read on forums, most everyone is thinking that the Bombers will have a difficult time this year.....well the LIghtning, another two time defending champ, kind of cruised through the regular season before turning it up a notch in the playoffs.  I see the same for the WBB.

5)  Redblacks UNDER 44.....public is auto betting OVERs after reading Spottie's posts on the likelihood of OVERs this year in the CFL.  I respect his POV, though in the case of this game, I think defense dominates and for the season I don't see a big drop off in the Bombers' defense, (I don't think they will be historically good as they were last season) but in their O.

6)  Calgary +2 CANCELLED,....bought out of this game....leaning UNDER.

Though usually I like to fade the public in betting in general, the public tends to win in both the CFL and in the NHL...perhaps the general public betting IQ in Canada is on a higher plane than the rest of the world.  And, the fact that single game betting in Canada is now legal probably saved CFL betting this season as previously vegas treated CFL betting as "too hard" putting out lines at the very last second.

I have copied and pasted from an earlier post on this thread....

Here's some more support for the Argonauts........this is incorrect, it should read....here is a trend favoring in the Alouettes.

Week two teams off a week one bye playing a team that played in week one 1-4 ATS (-15.8)

This is the second post where I have mixed up the Als and the Argos....the angles this week STRONGLY favor the Alouettes.  I have a lot of respect for Dinwiddie, the coach of the Argos, and they made some very nice additions in the off-season.

However the Argonauts last season finished at the top of the division despite having a negative average scoring margin, which is a strong sign for regression the following season.  I am not sold on Bethel-Thompson as a guy that can get you consistent play at the quarterback position.  He and Vernon Adams along with their teams will be entities that we'd look to back as underdogs, but not as favorites.

The shank gives the Argos the win, fortunately the Argos' kicker was worse than the Alouettes'.  Harris looked pretty good and MBT looks like a turnover machine once again.  I expect the Argos turnover ratio to be very bad this season, and Toronto will get the message and go looking for a new quarterback next season. 

Perhaps scoring will pick up later in the season.

1)  Celtics -3' loss

2)  Alouettes +3 win

3)  Alouettes OVER 47' loss

4)  Redblacks +6, -120

5)  Redblacks UNDER 44

Adding:

6)  Hamilton UNDER 45

5)  Ottawa UNDER 44

4)  Ottawa +6, -120

______________________________

3)  Toronto OVER 47'....loser

2)  Alouettes +3..........winner

1)  Celtics -3'..............loser 

@Indigo999

RE: RIDERS V ELKS

I was just noting how we had the line close to what it is now than where it opened. Historically the Riders are not as good away from Mosaic and the Elks should be better this week after getting trounced in the first half of last week...Keep an eye on that closing line

Contemplating trying a middle in the Pegger/Redblack game....my book has the Redblacks at +1.5 or -125....we'll see if it gets closer to pik by game time.....Ottawa has 62% of the betting action against the defending champs,.......another odd game with no semblance to reality of the relative strengths of the two teams.

Normally I throw out the idea of "value", and side with the market when there is an underdog....on a neutral field I'd make the Bombers a 6.5 point favorite, so this line "should" be +3.5/4.  However 62% of the market against the defending champs is just a weird development.  I would much rather go against defending champs when there's a chance of  them being complacent, when the banner is being hung and everyone is patting them on the back, than when they're off a game where they  barely won and everyone is assuming they'll have a tough time, on the road.

We'll see what eventuates in the next few hours and whether I am totally over-thinking this one....LOL.

Ok, went for it.

Plays:

1)  Bombers -115

2)  Redblacks +6 -120

3)  Bombers UNDER 44

4)  Calgary UNDER 45

________________________

5)  Celtics -3' loss

6)  Alouettes +3 win

7)  Alouettes OVER 47' loss

If Hamilton becomes a pik or a dog, I'll be on them.