Week 2 Indigo lines, discussion

Week 2 early Indigo lines....expect now that with online betting in Canada that we see some bookmaker lines out by Tuesday.

Argos         -3'  51       Alouettes

Redblacks  +4 43        Bombers

Tiger Cats  -4  47        Stamps

Elks        +7   49        Riders

The team I liked the most, that I thought had the biggest upside laid the biggest egg week 1.  It turns out that BC is the team that I thought Edmonton would be.  The Elks look like a lost cause this year, though as I mentioned previously, organizations with an abysmal team with a very good coach often become very good at covering, but not necessarily winnng, in the second half of their first season.  Would not consider playing Edmonton again  until around week 10 or so, and we'll see where things stand with them.

And BC?  It ls looking likely that they have the next superstar in the CFL, and a guy that could save the CFL.  Why the CFL has not had a game changer Canadian born quarterback is  a mystery to me....I mean, Canada produces superstar ice hockey guys all the time, so why not  quarterbacks?  This SHOULD open the floodgates for Canada and native-born quarterbacks good enough to start in the CFL and that along with  the eventual coalescing with another American league, it is what is needed for it to survive.  They should scrap the requirement of so many Canadians on the field, as Canada now produces enough quality players that a requirement should no longer be necessary as long as a salary cap is in place.  With  polling done that shows the CFL is not attracting younger fans, drastic action is needed, and the scrapping of three down football to eventually playing four down football will be a part of  Canadian football's  future.  

Canada and Australia are very similar in population and its dynamics.....they have one sport that is the kingpin in each country that has dominated the landscape for the past 50+ years.  (Actually, Australia has rugby league AND AFL with each sport dominating their own locales.)  Other sports have made headway, and about 20 years ago, Australia started sending talented basketball players to America's universities, and now some are playing in the NBA, and the Australian Olympic basketball team routinely finishes in the top four in the Olympics.  Basketball has been popular enough that it sells out in the pro Australian NBL.  However, AFL games attract 80,000 fans to games and their NBL games attract 5,000....they will never hit the level of their AFL, similar to how it is in Canada with ice hockey and football.  One thing that will drive the sport of basketball in Australia is now there will be a formation of a super Asian league featuring teams from Hong Kong, China, Korea, the Philippines, New Zealand and Australia....Australia is one super transcendent star that would play in his home country to bring that sport to the next level.

As for now in Canada, a Steve Nash type superstar looks like he has already arrived, and BC road games could be sell-outs if Rourke shows he is not just a one-game-wonder.  He has the perfect coach and system to make that a reality as Campbell has always been a great offensive mind.  I know I will be tuning in for the Lions' games this season to watch what this kid will do. 

I suppose I would piss off the traditionalists, but my next step if they appointed me in charge of Canadian football would be to adopt American football rules and then integrate the college game of Canada into the American university system, perhaps into division II to start with so that teams would routinely play each other across the border.  As it is now, you can't have the biggest, most powerful city in your country and your league drawing only 10,000 fans at your games while NHL's ice hockey sells out at every city in Canada over a 40 game home schedule.....it means you are doing something wrong if that is the best you can do.

If they are not gonna hire me, lol, Canada should assemble a 7 person think tank of the most powerful, successful business people in Canada to see what they would do to make the CFL a viable enterprise.

Indigo,

The idea of switching to American rules would turn off many CFL fans.  It would become a poor substitute for the NFL.

The Canadian game evolved separately and is actually far more preferred by most knowledgeable football fans here.  It is far more dynamic and less predictable because of the three downs, motion, punting rules,  time clock, size of the field, etc.   What it can’t compete with is the hype surrounding the NFL. For the mainstream, less knowledgeable football fan, that simply wants what is perceived as “world class”, the CFL cannot compete, particularly in a city like Toronto.  Most people there wouldn’t know a post pattern from a post office yet they would not be caught being a CFL fan because of their perception of it being provincial.  

However, to switch rules would be to lose a lot of the CFL fans and the perception problem would remain in any event.  It will and should always be a uniquely Canadian game with a strong following in markets that are intelligent enough to appreciate it for what it is.   If they try and change it they will ruin it and lose the character, charm and terrific excitement that it has.

Thanks for your response.  Evidently, something dynamic will need to change with the CFL upon listening to someone deeply involved with the game in Canada.  If they keep the status quo, the days of the CFL may be numbered.

Out of all the sports leagues in north america, (besides the new USFL, XFL) the most likely to go bankrupt is the CFL.  I would not have initially thought that there was much wrong with the CFL, however the interview with the CEO of the corporation that owns the Maple Leafs, Argonauts and the soccer team there was telling....he is pessimistic on the future viability of the league with the CFL's inability to attract a young audience of new fans.  They were the only sports league out of all  leagues that asked their government for a bailout during covd.  Regardlesss of the beauty and strategy of the game, the bottom line is that they are not putting enough bums on seats, especially in the most important city related to the success of the league. 

Gymnastics, synchronized swimming and figure skating are beautiful sports but they are not viable long-term sports where people will support it enough for a franchise to make money at it.

McDonalds, Dominos Pizza and Coca Cola are terrible products, however their corporations are among the most wealthy in the world and shareholders flock to invest in them....what they have in common is that they are the best marketers in the world.  Somehow, the CFL must learn to better market their product and they must get a new generation involved with the sport.  

I got the new lines from covers....we'll know soon enough if they bear some semblance to reality when the bookmakers release their lines.

Covers' opening lines on left and mine on right.

Toronto           -2.5   46.5              -3.5   51

Ottawa           +7.5   43.5              +4    43

Tiger Cats       -2.5   45.5               -4    47

Edomonton     +5.5   46                +7   46.5

Lean Redblacks + and Argos/Alouettes OVER.

Angles that fit week two....

1)  43-112 ATS.....play versus a favorite that will be a dog their next two games.....VERSUS Argos

2)  Play ON a dog who will favored their next two game.....Stampeders

3)  34-14 ATS.......Away dogs games number 1-4, play ON a dog that had a positive margin their last six games the prior season.....Aloettes, Stampeders 

4)  Teams that won 4 or 5 games out of their last 6 regular season games the previous season that are away dogs in game numbers 1-4.......30-7 ATS..... Stampeders

continued.....these are all Spottie angles researched from last season.. 

a)  108-44 ATS.....non-Saturday dogs week < 10  that will either be favored next game or their present opponent will be dogs  with less than or equal wins to their present opponent....Alouettes

b) 88-45 ATS........Non-Sunday/Monday away divisional dogs with a total of <=53 and week<18.....Alouettes

c)  19-8 ATS.......Any dog that has won less than 4 games the previous season after week 1 and less than week 7..........Elks, Redblacks

d)  19-10 ATS......any dog week 2 whose opponent is off a loss.......Stampeders

e)  28-13 ATS, 22-18 straight up.....non-divisional home dogs before week 6......Redblacks

Plays:

1)  Alouettes +3, -105

2)  Redblacks +6, -120

3)  Alouettes OVER 47'

The CFL had covid...no season and then a disrupted season took the steam and interest out of the league. I would not give up on the league just yet. The lions did an excellent job of promoting the game here in Vancouver and look at the results Over 30K fans for the first time in who knows how long. From the opening concert to the in game experience to the FH blow out all made the lions the talk of the town.

Having a winner on the field also helps...its only been one week don't over react. I like you had the green riders heavy favs this week -8, I think the Elks bounce back. That line is low. I have small road favs at -4 or less  as 36-28-24 41% ats

  GL

Yes, perhaps the covid thing was the main issue, and the product on the field last year was not too good.

I quite like the CFL,  I would rank these sports from top to bottom as the most likely sport I would attend.

1)  NHL

2)  NFL

3)  CFL

4)  NBA

5)  Rugby 

20) MLB

50) Soccer

90) Cricket

91) Curling

92) Chess

93) Ice fishing

However, it is not me that is voting with their wallet, it is the Canadian populace.  And it is the CEO of the Toronto sports corporation (whatever the correct name for them is) that is sounding the alarm.  With multiple franchises in a myriad of sports he is in position to know if a league and a franchise is in trouble.

I love the cfl i been watching it for 40 years so they better not be going to 4 down football If so they can kiss football in canada good buy... GL indigo crush your book

Hey Powerz, can you clarify what you meant in this paragraph?

"I like you had the green riders heavy favs this week -8, I think the Elks bounce back. That line is low. I have small road favs at -4 or less  as 36-28-24 41% ats."

You mean  my Edmonton line was higher than you think the true relative strengths of the teams are?

I had a girlfriend once that was 36-28-24, but we broke up.  What was the record that you meant to say for small road favorites that has been 41%?

Thanks for chiming in...of course I am not Canadian and I don't have my pulse to the ground in Canada. Discussion is warranted....I am meaning no criticism of the game.  

I would say first that an outside group should make an evaluation to see if this CEO's assertion that the league is, in fact in trouble, yes or no.  

If it is, then avenues of making the league stronger should be explored, and sometimes that takes people outside of the business who are experts in business success to make it happen.  Perhaps it is totally about marketing as I've mentioned....that would be the best case scenario.  If I were involved I would poll 10,000 random Canadians to see what their views of the game are, and why or why not they would attend a game.  They are your possible clients and if they don't like something, you should know about it.  It'd be interesting to hear what they think about the plethora of americans playing in the CFL to see if that is an issue.  And, there'd be nothing sacred, it'd be my view that having Canadians play quarterback would make the league more popular.

Adding:

4)  Ottawa/Winnipeg UNDER 44

___________________________

3)  Ottawa +6, -120

2)  Montreal +3, -105

1)  Toronto/Montreal OVER 47'

How much is a CFL ticket?

@Indigo999

 You had the Green riders -7 I had them -8 the line opened -3.

That is the record for a small road fav on my chart 36 wins-28 non covers-24 Su losses 41% ats

So, you are considering the Elks, despite the discrepancy between your   power ratings and the line?

All the best to you if you decide to play  the Elks,...I will be passing on that game.

Hey Indy,

Gambrinus has added CFL to the “Gimmethedog” database mate so check it out. All your old parameters should be working there. 

Will be in Canada for Canadian Day and hoping to see the Elks and Stamps play at McMahons on 25 June 

Ok, thanks for the update....have a great time, eh?

I am posting these angles, though I am not here to convince you.  It is up to decide what may be relevant and what isn't.  The whole concept of "the past can help predict the future" is controversial.  I am a believer in that, but I am happy that most or many will not believe so, because if everyone believed it to be so, the betting advantage would be gone.  There is a whole other way of handicapping that is predicated on the bettor  assigning a betting line to each game and betting on differences between their line and the bookmakers'....Hoody's method is this type of betting.  And Hoody has done very well with it.  It is necessary that one has a more accurate line than what the linemaker puts out.  If you ask Hoody in this forum how he did last year, I'm sure he'd tell you....LOL.

Most bettors would do neither of these.  Just as there are many ways to make a living, there are many ways to handicap.  This is my way that I believe in, perhaps 10% of handicappers will do something similar.  Do what YOU resonate with and hopefully it will work for you.  I LOVE to research, so it is not work for me.

Looking at and using gimmethedog.com, technical handicappers are thankful for a database that can research similar situations to what is transpiring in the forthcoming games.

1)  Before week 8 home divisional dogs have been 21-29 ATS, and 14-12 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....Elks

2)  Before week 8 home non-divisional dogs have been 34-22 ATS, and 17-13 if they missed the playoffs last season...Redblacks

3)  Home dogs playing the same opponent as they did last game have been 14-15 ATS, 9-7 SUATS if they missed the playoffs last season...Redblacks

4)  Week 2 home dogs have been 7-7 SUATS, 6-4 ATS if this is a non-divisional game, 1-3  ATS in a divisional game....Elks, Redblacks

5)  Week 2 away dogs whose present opponent is off a loss 7-3 SUATS....Stamps

6)  Week 2 away teams off a loss of less than 7 points......8-0 ATS, 7-1 straight up.....Alouettes

7)  Week 2 home dogs off a loss of less than 7 points 3-0 SUATS....Redblacks

8)  Week 2 home favorites that played in at least 2  playoff games last season have been 2-8 ATS....Tiger Cats

9)  Week 2 away favorites that played in at least 2 playoff games last season have been 5-3 ATS, 3-3 in non-divisional games.....Bombers

10) Week 2 non-divisional home favorites that won less than or equal regular season games last season 2-8 ATS, 4-6 SU....Tiger Cats

11)  Away dogs that will be a favorite their next game or their present opponent will be a dog have been 267-167-7, 61.5%....this has been 76-38 ATS before week 5....Stamps, Alouettes

Adding:

5)  Stampeders +110

_______________________

4)  Redblacks +6, -120

3)  Alouettes +3, -105

2)  Alouettes OVER 47'

1)  Redblacks UNDER 44

I do miss killersports and forgetting the p: all the time LOL.

I do like to see what others come up with for a line.

What I don't like is when my line and the books line are off by 3 or 4 pts or even more and then the line moves up or down to what I had.

I do miss killersports and forgetting the p: all the time LOL.

I do like to see what others come up with for a line.

What I don't like is when my line and the books line are off by 3 or 4 pts or even more and then the line moves up or down to what I had.

I do miss killersports and forgetting the p: all the time LOL.

I do like to see what others come up with for a line.

What I don't like is when my line and the books line are off by 3 or 4 pts or even more and then the line moves up or down to what I had.

I do miss killersports and forgetting the p: all the time LOL.

I do like to see what others come up with for a line.

What I don't like is when my line and the books line are off by 3 or 4 pts or even more and then the line moves up or down to what I had.