Indigo lines week 2

3-3 ATS YTD.

Lions and Eskimos are clones of each other...neither can run the ball or stop the run, which is a poor combination for covering the spread as a favorite.

In fact, home regular season favorites that are outrushed are 52-193 ATS, covering 21.1% of their games.  Away favorites that are outrushed cover 25% of the time.

Ottawa looked awesome and won despite their new quarterback throwing 4 passes to the other team.  My past thread detailed how Grey Cup winners and Grey Cup losers average cover an average of 45% of the time their next season.  I wouldn't rule out Ottawa as being a threat this year, their coaching is superior.

Stamps are probably better than they looked, but tons of new defensive guys and a new coordinator, I see them as a 10 or 11 win team this season with a below 500 covering record.

Bombers were a methodical machine against the Lions...they gave up a special teams touchdown and looked bad on a couple of other Lions' returns,...that is the only weakness that I saw.  Teams that run the ball cover, so perhaps the last two years of very good performance ATS will continue for Winnipeg.

Riders gave up a return touchdown and missed two kicks, which cost me a winning weekend.  They outyarded  the Tiger Cats by over 100 yards.  Their defense was outstanding.  They have got to play their third string quarterback, but I would expect they'll play the two inferior quarterbacks ahead of him for 8 games or  and THEN, perhaps the lightbulb will turn on,.......or maybe it never will.  Coaches don't like to take flyers on quarterbacks, because if it doesn't work, it makes them look really bad...much easier to play the inbumbent because if THAT doesn't work, the can say they've gone with the percentage play.

Tiger Cats won, so credit to them, but they looked disappointing.....they should win the division with the Grey Cup runner up hex looming for the Redblacks, but they didn't look anywhere near the echelon that the Redblacks are.

The Als?....their defense will continue to be a problem, though of course they were playing against a very good passing Eskimos' offense.  Can Pipkin keep himself on the field?  He exposes himself to some very big hits, and I'd say "no", and that he'll have an injury marred short career in the CFL.  Their offense will not be embarrassing this year, and you could tell that they weren't afraid to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field this year, so there's that.

Indigo lines..

Ottawa      -3     Saskatchewan     52

Edmonton  -5     British Columbia  54'

Toronto    +3'     Hamilton            54

Trends:

Teams losing their first game have been 13-6 ATS as away dogs game 2......Riders, Lions

Home dogs in game 1 have been 2-5 ATS if the line is greater than 3 points......Argos

Away non-division teams off an away loss have been 13-5 ATS in game number 1,2 or 3.....Riders

I will be on the Argo's.  I hope that line is not more than +3.  I think more than +3 mean this game wont be as close, so that makes sense to me.

Eskimos are horrendous at home  laying <-4.5 since 20150901  4-18 ATS last week included

Love your lines

Who do you like Freddie?

Nice feedback guys....lines are out, my lines in brackets

1)  Redblacks -5    (-3)    Riders       46   (52)

2)  Eskimos    -4   (-5)     Lions        55   (54)

3)  Argonauts +2' (3')      Tiger Cats 52  (54)

Home Divisional dogs of <=3 have been 7-3 ATS in game numbers 1, 2 or 3.

6 point disparty in my total and Vegas' in Rider game.

Teams have been 12-4 ATS (6-1 Western division teams) off away loss and now away non-divisional dogs in games 2, 3 or 4.  Riders

Teams have been 4-7 ATS as home non-divisional favorites off an away dog upset when the line >6 points.....versus Redblacks

How many pt's is Zach worth , at 45 or 46 there saying the score is 25-20 , 26-20 ,at -5 for Ott. I had 51 for an ov-un. If Ott plays like last week there's 30 pt's and I wasn't really counting on Zach. Good pickings I still like the ov Indigo

You Canadian guys, fill me in on the important injury issues.  Is Zach out?....could be addition by subtraction if they let the 3rd string guy play...he throws it down the field so big plays, and of course he'll throw a couple to the wrong team, which leads to more scoring,...similar to what happened in the Calgary/Ottawa game.

If Fajardo plays which is more likely, he'll  throw 3 yard out patterns  there might be 10 points scored the whole game and the UNDER would be favored

I want to know who's qbing for the Sasquatches before I have a play.

Ottawa -5 Sask is even hurting more this year

Bc +4 Rielly needs to prove something to Edmonton

Toronto +2.5 they have to many weapons but not crazy with their qbs. I think Mazoli might have lost his mojo like Bo

I like your plays Freddie. 

Sorry to post my picks Indigo it wouldn't let me post my own thread, thanks spottie

Fajardo confirmed starter for Riders in Ottawa

total<46 and HF and week<13 and line>-13

Fajardo is a total waste of space, the Canadian  is so much better.  The coach is gonna be the last one to know, unfortunately.

Can't play the Sasquatches or play the total in that game.

Play:

1) Lions +4

Away divisional dogs that lost at home the week before have been 15-6 ATS, the first four games of the season.....Lions

2)   Lions/Eskimos OVER 55'

3)  Argos +3'

Well we are opposites on the total but I am already on the Argo's and I might play BC later in the week 

Best Wishes as always 

Sure, Spot, opposite point of views are what makes a market, game twos tend to play OVER in this situation.

"Home dogs in game 1 have been 2-5 ATS if the line is greater than 3 points......Argos", was INCORRECT.  I run this stats through a database, and I don't know if it it was me asleep at the wheel or the database that was not operating correctly.

Here is a breakdown of home dogs game number 1:

12-2 ATS (+8.75) overall and 9-4-1 straight up (+4.86)

line>3     8-1 ATS (+11.50) and 5-3-1 straight up (+4.86)

divisional home dogs game 1    6-2 ATS (+6.44) and 5-3 straght up (+3.00)

divisional home dogs >3   3-1 ATS (+9.12) and 2-2 straight up.

good much better

https://www.cfl.ca/2019/06/19/riders-start-fajardo-harker-will-play

Changed my mind....

4)  Riders +4'

5)  Riders OVER 44'

I think there's a likelihood of one of two things that happen....the Riders outrush the Redblacks and/or they have the turnover advantage.

Teams as away dogs that outrush their opponent regular season games cover 78.6% of the time and win straight up 61.5% of the time.

Teams as away dogs that have the turnover advantage regular season games cover 78.4% of the time and win straight up 62.1% of the time.

If they do both they cover 95.3% of the time, and win 85.8% of the time.

Home favorites have been 88-126 ATS when their previous game's line was >2.5

If they won that game with the line>2.5 those home favorites have been 27-54 ATS and  17-30 ATS in non divisional games, 4-9 in games 2 or 3.