tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and AD and division!=o:division and week<12 and tA(W)
We are playing UNDER on an away non-divisional dog that has lost its last two road games in week <12 with the lesser winning percentage off a home win.......going with this year's trend of the East playing UNDERs in non-divisional games on the road...good fortune.
Play:
5) Alouettes UNDER 45
Using this angle...
.
tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and AD and division!=o:division and week<12 and tA(W)
We are playing UNDER on an away non-divisional dog that has lost its last two road games in week <12 with the lesser winning percentage off a home win.......going with this year's trend of the East playing UNDERs in non-divisional games on the road...good fortune.
tA(ou margin)>0 and AD and week<6 and division!=o:division and division
A non-divisional away dog in weeks 1-5 that has a average positive o/u margin on the season so far......this has gone 16-28 o/u.
It is looking like the linemaker has drawn his line in the sand and has said "you are not beating me with UNDERs this season!", as the average past total in this situation has been 53 and obviously we are 8 points below that in this game. If you run the query you'll see that the average covering margin is around 2 points/game to the UNDER, which equates to an average of 51 points scored between the two teams, so we are playing this pick with trepidation.
The expected scoring binge with the rule changes made this season in the CFL may have started after a three week delay. I will be inclined to believe that the linemaker has over-compensated after last season's epic overall CFL offensive meltdown if this game goes OVER today.
Here is another angle supporting the UNDER.
tA(ou margin)>0 and AD and week<6 and division!=o:division and division
A non-divisional away dog in weeks 1-5 that has a average positive o/u margin on the season so far......this has gone 16-28 o/u.
It is looking like the linemaker has drawn his line in the sand and has said "you are not beating me with UNDERs this season!", as the average past total in this situation has been 53 and obviously we are 8 points below that in this game. If you run the query you'll see that the average covering margin is around 2 points/game to the UNDER, which equates to an average of 51 points scored between the two teams, so we are playing this pick with trepidation.
The expected scoring binge with the rule changes made this season in the CFL may have started after a three week delay. I will be inclined to believe that the linemaker has over-compensated after last season's epic overall CFL offensive meltdown if this game goes OVER today.
I had 1st half under 22 and that kickoff TD sucked. It's always the unders that I get screwed on. Hopefully under 45 still wins. I'm going to add more 2nd half under 23.
I had 1st half under 22 and that kickoff TD sucked. It's always the unders that I get screwed on. Hopefully under 45 still wins. I'm going to add more 2nd half under 23.
Tough game, I am not going to play the last game. I'll be off UNDERs for the time being until we start seeing totals in the 50s. All the best going forward guys...the CFL can be a landmine sometimes.
4-2 for the week......I am 17-9 ATS in the KOC CFL contest, and 14-14 ATS on this thread...should have gone with my first impressions, obviously.
So far this since the start of week 3, cfl.ca experts are 1-3 ATS, with their play on the Bombers remaining this week.
Plays:
1) Riders UNDER 45 loser
2) Elks UNDER 46' loser
3) Elks +7 winner
4) BC -2' winner, winner
5) BC OVER winner
We're gonna see some outlandish lines when the West meets the East for awhile now into the future, as there is going to be a cascade of money on West Division teams when they play the East for the foreseeable future as well as money on OVERs. Doubtful that we will be bucking that trend, as in stock market investing they say......
"Never try to catch a falling knife", (or don't get in the way of a trend).
Indigo week 5
Edmonton +4 Calgary 49
Saskatchewan -9 Ottawa 50
British Columbia -2' Winnipeg 50
The scoring average in the CFL has been the home team winning 27-24 for many years, until covid canceled one season and then last year scoring bottomed out to 43 points/game.....this season so far we are at 50 points/game, including the first three games of week 4, so we're almost back to where it was. You would think that sportsbooks would be privy to this information, but if one isn't aware of it by now, the CFL and the linemaking that goes into it is always full of surprises.
Tough game, I am not going to play the last game. I'll be off UNDERs for the time being until we start seeing totals in the 50s. All the best going forward guys...the CFL can be a landmine sometimes.
4-2 for the week......I am 17-9 ATS in the KOC CFL contest, and 14-14 ATS on this thread...should have gone with my first impressions, obviously.
So far this since the start of week 3, cfl.ca experts are 1-3 ATS, with their play on the Bombers remaining this week.
Plays:
1) Riders UNDER 45 loser
2) Elks UNDER 46' loser
3) Elks +7 winner
4) BC -2' winner, winner
5) BC OVER winner
We're gonna see some outlandish lines when the West meets the East for awhile now into the future, as there is going to be a cascade of money on West Division teams when they play the East for the foreseeable future as well as money on OVERs. Doubtful that we will be bucking that trend, as in stock market investing they say......
"Never try to catch a falling knife", (or don't get in the way of a trend).
Indigo week 5
Edmonton +4 Calgary 49
Saskatchewan -9 Ottawa 50
British Columbia -2' Winnipeg 50
The scoring average in the CFL has been the home team winning 27-24 for many years, until covid canceled one season and then last year scoring bottomed out to 43 points/game.....this season so far we are at 50 points/game, including the first three games of week 4, so we're almost back to where it was. You would think that sportsbooks would be privy to this information, but if one isn't aware of it by now, the CFL and the linemaking that goes into it is always full of surprises.
Unbeaten non-divisional away favorites.....7-20 ATS, 4-15 ATS (-4.6) if that team played in at least two playoff games the season prior,...this moves to 1-5 ATS, 2-4 straight up if the game is in week 4 or greater.....Bombers
AF and division!=o:division and tpS(playoffs)>1 and week>3
Home non-divisional dogs off an away loss versus an opponent off a home win before week 5.......5-2 ATS (+9.0), 5-2 straight up (+4.8), 5-2 o/u (+14.9)......Argos
HD and division!=o:division and oA(margin)-tA(margin)-line>0 and p:AL and op:HW and week<5
Unbeaten non-divisional away favorites.....7-20 ATS, 4-15 ATS (-4.6) if that team played in at least two playoff games the season prior,...this moves to 1-5 ATS, 2-4 straight up if the game is in week 4 or greater.....Bombers
AF and division!=o:division and tpS(playoffs)>1 and week>3
Home non-divisional dogs off an away loss versus an opponent off a home win before week 5.......5-2 ATS (+9.0), 5-2 straight up (+4.8), 5-2 o/u (+14.9)......Argos
HD and division!=o:division and oA(margin)-tA(margin)-line>0 and p:AL and op:HW and week<5
Not surprising that predominant POV is OVERs after what transpired in the earlier games this week....average public betting percentage is around 60% to the OVER in the CFL betting.
Eastern Division teams are 9 games under 500.....after covering two week 1 games as away underdogs, East teams have gone 1-8-1 ATS since.
Top 20 KOC contest picks so far
Toronto 6 Winnipeg 8
OVER 10 UNDER 5
Not surprising that predominant POV is OVERs after what transpired in the earlier games this week....average public betting percentage is around 60% to the OVER in the CFL betting.
Eastern Division teams are 9 games under 500.....after covering two week 1 games as away underdogs, East teams have gone 1-8-1 ATS since.
I can blindly play overs and probably win. So unfortunate that half the cappers here are good writers but the result never matches what the writing is.
@Indigo999
I can blindly play overs and probably win. So unfortunate that half the cappers here are good writers but the result never matches what the writing is.
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