CFL week 12

 CFL 33-18 ATS, 2-2 for the week.

NCAA 16-18 ATS, 3-6 for the sweek

Indigo lines 

1)  Montreal  +2'  45'

2)  Hamilton -10  42

3)  Winnipeg -10  44

4)  Calgary    -4  43 

The Roughriders have double revenge....but right now the Stampeders are a runaway freight train.

Leans Stampeders, Argos, Lions

Trevor Harris traded to the Alouettes.....I thought they were fine with Shilz.  I doubt he makes the Alouettes better.

Comment section of the CFL.ca page says that Arbuckle is being shopped.  Edmonton should trade for him or Ottawa.

NFL....

1)  Week 7 home non-divisional favorites with the lesser scoring margin...28-21 ATS........49ers, Dolphins

2)  Week 7 home divisional favorites with the greater scoring margin........32-41 ATS.......VERSUS Ravens

3)  Week 7 teams that have the stronger next week line...247-161 ATS, as:

    a)  home favorites........96-69 ATS......Bucs, Cardinals, 49ers

    b)  away favorites........59-49 ATS......Panthers, Chiefs

    c)  away dogs..............71-38 ATS......Broncos, Bengals, Falcons

    d)  home dogs.............11-8 ATS........Seahawks

NFL

Plays:

1)  49ers -4

Adding:

2)  Eagles +3

Hurts has his detractors, but I am not one of them....he just wills his team to come along with him, and besides that he scores a ton of touchdowns and  he covers spreads...I'd take a street fighter type over pretty boy quarterbacks like Cousins, Darnold and Carr every day of the week.

3)  Bengals +6'

Still not a believer in the Ravens this season.  Having Edwards out and replaced with team cancer Laveon Bell is a net loss of 6 points per game right there.

4)  Seahawks +3'

The Sea Birds fall into a 48-23 ATS angle, (40-34 straight up) where a home non-divisional dog with the lesser average per game scoring margin who will have the stronger line their next game before November covers at a high rate. 

Seahawks have a huge amount of pride and the biggest home field advantage in the NFL.  Saints better have their chin straps buckled for this one. 

Jameis for Geno Smith is an equal trade, and being at home negates poor quarterback play for the Seahawks.

Seahawks get the Jaguars next, and the Saints?...they get the champs.

1)  49ers -4

NFL

An away dog who lost their first four games of the season (Lions, Jaguars) off a home loss before December....87-45 ATS (+2.6)

Sum(L@team and season and week<5)=4 and AD and 9<month<12 and p:HL

If that team is still winless....49-24 ATS.....Lions

CFL

Calculated lines, I will be using the last 6 games and taking out the highest and lowest points scored and allowed and then average the four remaining results.  Again we look to fade out calculations because, things rarely stay the same and Vegas knows best.

Giving one point for home field.  We play when there is a difference of >3 points to our calculations.

Toronto      22.5- 24

Montreal    24.25-23..............calculated line Montreal -4  50.5

Indicated play....Toronto 

Ottawa     15.25-27.5

Hamilton   22.5-19...............calculated line Hamilton -16.75   41.25

No plays

Sask          18.75-23

Calgary      24.25-18.75.........calculated line Calgary -10.75   41.75

Indicated play     Roughriders

BC           21.25-23

Winnipeg  29.75-10.5.......calculated line Bombers -22  41.5

Indicated play Lions

NFL

Adding:

5)  Broncos +3'.....falls into a 50-20 ATS angle.

___________________________________

4)  Bengals +6'

3)  Eagles +3

2)  Seahawks +5

1)  49ers -4

Deleting Bengals +6'

Plays:

4)  Broncos +3'

3)  Eagles +3

2)  Seahawks +5

1)  49ers -4

SF is a must for me too.  Indy was only +2.5 AT Miami.  Miami sucks and the 49ers are decent enough.  Line is only -1 point difference. 

Neglected to count BYU as a loss in last week's abysmal NCAA picks.

Updated year to date record....

College football 16-19 ATS

NFL 24-15 ATS

CFL 33-18 ATS

__________________________

Cumulative total 73-52 ATS....58.4%

The HF's are actually an even stronger 96-59.  The HF's and AD's avg margin of 4.4 looks very strong.

Thanks for posting this and good luck..

Adding:

5)  WFT +9'

In the first half of the season home non-divisional favorites of more than 6 points that will be underdogs their next game have been 95-143 ATS

If their opponent's winning percentage is below 50% this moves to 49-91 ATS.

If their losing opponent is off a home loss this has been 18-40 ATS.

Packers play at Arizona next week.

HF and n:D and line<-6 and division!=o:division and month<11 and oA(W)<.5 and op:HDL

Just checked out the superbook contest standings presently sitting at 19-10-1....there are 118 contestants ahead of me, so a 4-1 week moved me up over 100 spots.

Expanding on our VERSUS Green Bay play.....if we exclude that our play against team should be favored by more than 6 points AND we add on to our query that our play AGAINST home favorite is off an away win......

8-34 ATS

HF and 8<month<11 and HF and n:D and oA(W)<.5 and op:HDL and p:AW

First next week's lines have come out and I listed teams that qualify on thread #3....the Bengals do NOT qualify, but instead the Browns qualify as they are scheduled to be 4.5 point favorites and the Broncos will be 3 point favorites.

Also, the Packers are listed as 3 point favorites rather than away dogs as expected, so our 8-34 ATS angle versus the Packers is now no longer valid.

However the Packers still fall into numerous other go-against angles....

HF and month<11 and week<11 and no:wins>t:wins and op:HDL and p:W and oA(W)<.5

25-42 ATS

HF and month<11 and week<11 and no:wins>t:wins and op:HDL and p:AW and oA(W)<.5

14-28 ATS

HF and week<11 and n:day=Thursday

32-77 ATS

Looking likely that the future line of Green Bay being favored by 3 points over Arizona next week was posted incorrectly by betregal, as Sagarin has Arizona as the top-rating team in the league and has them as 2.5 points better than Green Bay without home field advantage and Massey has them as being  4.5 points the better team. 

Another sports book that has future lines posted has Arizona as 3 point favorites.

The 8-34 ATS angle playing against Green Bay  is still valid.

Trevor Harris will improve Montreal.  I am not sure WTF is/was going on with him in Edmonton but that is behind him now.  He is a good QB and will improve the Al's.  Time will tell if I am right. 

There has to be some sort of shift in power or regression.  This is a possible move that will leap Montreal into the Next Calgary or Winnipeg.  Bold statement but this is what I feel could happen.  I saw him before and he has potential.  Montreal with new owners, could be a bright future ahead. 

No disrespect, just something I feel. 

Best wishes this week 

Well, then we'll see about Harris....I could very well be wrong, but I think back to the time he was rolling in Ottawa and they let him walk in order to play Davis.  Montreal still has very mediocre receivers, but I like their coach and perhaps Harris will be their missing link for that team. 

However, there is something about him that has gotten two different franchises to dump him as their starting qb which makes you wonder not only at his performance as a quarterback but also his ability to elevate his team.

I don't see what is going through the collective minds of Edmonton...the quarterbacks they are playing are not starting quarterback material.  I put that on the GM, and I put the scheme that the Edmonton  is running on the coach, it is looking likely that one or both will not last long.

Onto more NFL.

Derek Henry is a top 5 all-time NFL running back....the guy is like a superhero.

And teams that produce more rushing attempts than  their opponent in any certain game cover 75.5% of the time.

rushes>o:rushes and playoffs=0

If those teams are dogs they cover 83% of the time covering by over 9 points/game, and if the line is less than 7 they cover 83.1% of the time.  Home dogs in this situation cover 81.3% of the time, and finally home non-divisional dogs cover 82.4% of the time, covering by an average of 9.4 points per game if they out-rush attempt their opponent.

If those running home dogs won last game as a home dog this moves to 16-3 ATS, winning straight up 15 out of the 19 instances.

Now I ask you,

"What are the chances that the Titans out-rush attempt the Chiefs on Sunday?"

I'd say 80% at least....if we multiply the chances of them out-rushing their opponent (80% or .8) by the chance that they cover (around 80% or .8) that still gives us around a 64% covering rate, right?

We'll take 64% every day of the week.

Now, the analytics people say that the best predictor of winning in the NFL is producing the better yards per pass attempt result, so I put that in my query to see if that negated the covering rate of our running dog because it is quite likely with the Titan's troubles in the secondary that the Chiefs produce a better yards per pass attempt stat for the game. 

It didn't change the result much.

The dog covered 80.6% of the time if they out-rush attempted but their opponent  out-passing yards-per-attempted them at 229-55 ATS.

Play:

6)  Titans +5'

NFL plays:

1)  WFT +9'

2)  Eagles +3

3)  49ers -4

4)  Seahawks +5

5)  Titans +5'

Superbook contest plays/lines.

1)  WFT +8'

2)  Eagles +3

3)  Seahawks +4'

4)  49ers -4

5)  Titans +5'.....home dogs that score over 21 points in that specified game have been 765-211-18 ATS (+8.4), 78.4%,.....if they outrush attempt their opponent AND score more than 21 points this moves to 539-53 ATS, (+13.2), 91% cover rate and 494-104 straight up (+9.23), 82.6%.

HD and points>21 and playoffs=0 and rushes>o:rushes

Mister Bookmaker has put out CFL lines......his on left, Indigo's on right.

Alouettes  +1  48'           +2' 45

Tiger Cats -15 42'           -10 42

Bombers  -11' 42           -10 44

Stamps     -1' 44             -4 43

Stamps still not getting much respect....right now they are playing as well as the Bombers and they just picked up ball hawk Tre Robertson.

Plays:

1)  Argos -1

2)  Lions +11'

3)  Alouettes/Argos UNDER 48'

Heavy lean to Stamps....we'll see where the line moves to over the next few days.

NFL

Before week 11, an away dog whose opponent's next week line is at least 10 points weaker than their present line....396-223 ATS (+4), 64%.

Cardinals' line next week versus the Packers is -3 and they are -17/-18ish right now, so the Texans qualify in this situation.

This moves to 72-35 ATS if our away dog lost last week as an away dog, and has been 44-19 ATS, 69.8% if the game is a non-divisional affair...

AD and week<11 and on:line-o:line>10 and p:ADL and division!=o:division

Texans

Mister Bookmaker has put out CFL lines......his on left, Indigo's on right, staff writers' picks on far right.

Alouettes  +1  48'           +2' 45               Alouettes 50%

Tiger Cats -15 42'           -10 42               Tiger Cats 100%

Bombers  -11' 42           -10 44                Bombers 100%

Stamps     -1' 44             -4 43                Stamps 50%

Plays:

1)  Argos -1

2)  Lions +11'

3)  Alouettes/Argos UNDER 48'

Adding:

4)  Stamps -120

_____________________

1)  Argos -1

2)  Lions +11'

3)  Argos/Als UNDER 48'