2023 Italian Grand Prix 2023 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mad Max Chases History in Monza

Looking to make history with a 10th straight race win, Max Verstappen is once again a heavy favorite to win this weekend as the F1 grid heads to Monza for the Italian Grand Prix. Read more in our full breakdown below.

Last Updated: Sep 2, 2023 1:53 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Verstappen Red Bull Formula 1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Max Verstappen has done it: after securing a win last week, Verstappen now has tied the record for the longest race win streak in Formula One history at nine. With a win this Sunday at the Italian Grand Prix he can become the long record holder, surpassing Sebastian Vettel - the previous lone record holder. 

Can Verstappen continue on his streak and cement his place in Formula 1 history, or willCarlos Saniz' P1 finish in Saturday's qualifiers give him a real shot at winning?

We break it all down in our full F1 odds preview and in our free picks and predictions for the 2023 Italian Grand Prix on Sunday, August 3rd.

Italian Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver Team DraftKings FanDuel Caesars bet365
Max Verstappen Red Bull -550 -440 <<-400<> -500
Sergio Perez Red Bull +2,200 +2,200 +900 +2,000
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +4,000 +5,500 +1,400 +5,000
Lando Norris McLaren +8,000 +11,000 +1,800 +10,000
Oscar Piastri McLaren +3,000 +11,000 +3,300 +10,000
George Russell Mercedes +3,500 +4,500 +3,300 +4,000
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +900 +1,100 +3,300 +1,000
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +700 +650 +4,000 +600
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin +15,000 +14,000 +2,500 +15,000
Alex Albon Williams +6,500 +6,500 +12,500 +6,600

Odds as of September 2, 2022

Italian Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying picks

Max Verstappen will head into Sunday's race in pursuit of Formula One history as he attempts to become the lone record holder of the longest race win streak. Saturday's qualifying results potentially brought some intrigue to that pursuit after Ferrari's Carlos Sainz secured pole position, with his teammate Charles LeClerc taking third behind Verstappen. 

Can Ferrari spoil Verstappen's fun or will Verstappen once again take home the win and extend his win streak to a historic 10 straight races?

Continue reading for free Formula One picks and predictions for the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday, September 3rd.

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-440 at FanDuel)

Despite not taking home pole position in Saturday's qualifying round, Verstappen's odds to win Sunday's race have actually gotten just a smidge shorter ahead of the main event.

As we noted in the pre-qualifying analysis, Verstappen's history in the Italian Grand Prix leans towards being one of his weaker tracks in terms of historical performance. He did take home the win last year, but prior to that, he retired in back-to-back years and had never placed better than fifth in his other five appearances at the track.

But despite all of that plus being sandwiched on the grid by Ferrari teammates, Verstappen's form this season is unignorable. Winning nine straight races in a row — and 11 on the year — isn't something one can attribute to anything but sheer dominant talent.

Expect Max to take home the win and write his name in the history books.

Best bet: Lewis Hamilton to finish in the Top 6 (-225 at Unibet)

We have backed this prop in prior races as Hamilton has been underpriced at tracks that he has posted extensively great results on.

This is one of those tracks. He hasn't won the Italian Grand Prix in four years but Hamilton has taken fifth (2022), seventh (2020), and third (2019) while retiring in one of those races. Prior to that stretch, he accumulated five wins in the seven years prior (taking second in one of the two he didn't win).

Hamilton also has taken home the fastest lap in four of the last eight Italian Grand Prix, which is another prop to sprinkle some lunch money on given the long odds (+1,900 at FanDuel).

Italian Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

Starting position Driver
1 Carlos Sainz
2 Max Verstappen
3 Charles Leclerc
4 George Russell
5 Sergio Perez
6 Alexander Albon
7 Oscar Piastri
8 Lewis Hamilton
9 Lando Norris
10 Fernando Alonso
11 Yuki Tsunoda
12 Liam Lawson
13 Nico Hulkenberg
14 Valtteri Bottas
15 Logan Sargeant
16 Zhou Guanyu
17 Pierre Gasly
18 Esteban Ocan
19 Kevin Magnussen
20 Lance Stroll

Italian Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-450)

Verstappen's domination is unlike anything we've seen in the sport in quite some time.

His ninth straight win last week tied the F1 record for consecutive victories (Sebastian Vettel) and he's a heavy favorite to break that record in Monza this week. 

He's also the defending champion here in Italy, winning this race for the first time a season ago.

Sergio Perez (+1,100)

Despite a bit of a mid-season slump, Verstappen's running mate Sergio Perez appears to be rounding back into form. 

He's finished third, second, and fourth in his last three races and is next in line on the odds board should something weird happen to his teammate. 

Lewis Hamilton (+1,200)

After a slow start to the season, Lewis Hamilton is up to fourth in the Drivers' Standings and sits just 12 points back of Fernando Alonso for the third spot. 

He may not have the car to win it in 2023 but he does have an insane track record in Monza, winning here five times between 2012 and 2018. 

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Italian Grand Prix opening odds reaction

Max Verstappen to win -380

These are the same odds Verstappen had heading into the race weekend, and like last weekend, these are noticeably shorter odds that he had in any of the races prior. As we speculated last week, this is likely an anticipatory measure by the books to help combat against an increase in public interest and action on Verstappen given his pursuit of history.

Unlike last week's Dutch Grand Prix, there isn't as strong of a case for the shorter odds when it comes to past performance. He did win last year's Italian Grand Prix, but did retire in both of the years prior and had finished 8th, 5th, 10th, 7th, and 12th in his other appearances on the track.

Even more so than the Dutch Grand Prix, there is essentially no value in the number.

Lean: Stay away for now, wait for potentially shorter odds if he doesn't take pole in qualifying

Max Verstappen fastest lap +1,400

Speaking of unwarranted odds, Verstappen (expectedly) has the shortest odds to take home the fastest lap for Sunday's race but it is almost entirely unwarranted. First and foremost, despite his dominance and separation from the rest of the grid, Mad Max has secured the fastest lap just five times in his eleven wins this season.

On top of that, in his eight races at this grand prix Verstappen has never once taken home the fastest lap. That includes last year's race during which he climbed from seventh to first to win the race, but still did not record the fastest lap in the process.

Lean: Stay away entirely

Lewis Hamilton fastest lap +1,400

Within that same span, Lewis Hamilton has taken home fastest lap in four of those eight races. Granted, he hasn't taken it in two years now and he isn't quite the same driver he once was during his dominant run.

But at +1,400, Hamilton is worth the stab. He has a level of familiarity here that warrants him being better than fourth in odds on this prop and especially with the next shortest being +750.

Lean: Bet now given that he may have a solid qualifying run

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Previous Italian Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 Daniel Ricciardo McLaren
2020 Pierre Gasly AlphaTauri
2019 Charles Leclerc Ferrari
2018 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2017 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2016 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2015 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2014 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2013 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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