Last updated: March 12 at 2 a.m. ET
Paul Thomas Anderson has spent years as the Academy's bridesmaid, having received 11 nominations without a win. But his dominant sweep of early precursors like the Golden Globes, DGA Awards and the BAFTAs suggests that it’s finally his year.
One Battle After Another has seen its win probability reach near-total market saturation. The film’s triumph in London, where it took home six awards including Best Film and Best Director, has caused buyers on Kalshi to treat the Oscars as a mere formality.
Meanwhile, Marty Supreme, once the high-flying challenger, suffered the most losses (11) without a single win on February 22. And that, together with an upset for Chalamet at the Actor Awards, has sent shockwaves through prediction markets like Kalshi, with traders quickly adjusting their positions.
Key Takeaways:
- BAFTA and Actor Award upsets have caused huge price changes in the best actor and best supporting actor markets.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is now the most locked-in winner on the board after the BAFTAs.
- Timothée Chalamet’s price has plummeted following losses to Robert Aramayo and Michael B. Jordan.
- Jessie Buckley remains a dominant force, having cemented her lead with a BAFTA win.
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Oscars Prediction Markets: Who is Rising... and Who is Falling?
We’ve seen a sudden shift in market sentiment over the past few days, with BAFTA sweeps and Actor Award upsets creating brand new narratives ahead of the Oscars in a few weeks’ time.
While certain frontrunners have seen their prices surge toward a near-certain 90¢ following trophy-filled nights, others have seen their values plummet after high-profile upsets.
It means that now’s the perfect time to buy the dip. Sudden changes in narratives due to unexpected upsets and shock results at precursor events inevitably result in certain stars’ prices falling much further than their realistic winning potential. And therein lies the opportunity for traders looking for value picks.
Let’s take a look at the latest Oscar odds and check out the biggest movers of recent days.
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Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor (One Battle After Another) | Chance 68% | ▼ 6
In the wake of surprise BAFTA and Actor Award wins, Sean Penn has overtaken the season's previous frontrunner, Stellan Skarsgård.
Penn’s victory in London revitalized the sweep narrative for PTA’s thriller, and led to his ‘Yes’ price jumping from 17¢ to 53¢. Following the Actor Awards, it rose again to 77¢. It has since dropped back to 68¢, but Penn remains the favorite here. Skarsgård’s price, on the other hand, fell from 66¢ to 27¢, and then down to 20¢.
Amy Madigan for Best Supporting Actress (Weapons) | Chance 52% | ▲ 9
The best supporting actress market is also proving to be volatile. Amy Madigan currently commands the highest ‘Yes’ price, following her Actor Awards win.
Madigan overtook Teyana Taylor to become the new favorite, but Wunmi Mosaku was the name on everyone's lips following her win at the BAFTAs. We’ve seen some serious late-stage momentum in this market; don’t count anyone out.
Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor (Marty Supreme) | Chance 41% | ▼ 15
Chalamet had been the favorite to win the Oscar, but his perceived invincibility took a real hit following losses at the BAFTA and Actor Awards.
Marty Supreme went 0-for-11 at the BAFTAs, and Chalamet’s loss to Aramayo gave the first indication that this race was going to be tighter than the Golden Globes initially indicated. In the past few weeks, Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price fell from 70¢ right down to 31¢, but it's now rising again.
Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor (Sinners) | Chance 48% | ▲ 12
Michael B. Jordan closed the gap in a market that once heavily favored Timothée Chalamet. It was Jordan who took the Best Actor prize at the Actor Awards on 1 March, despite Chalamet being the favorite going into the ceremony.
Given the similarities between Actor Awards voters and those of the Academy Awards, markets have reacted swiftly, sending Jordan’s ‘Yes’ price through the roof. He's now the favorite, but Chalamet's catching up.
Jessie Buckley for Best Actress (Hamnet) | Chance 97% | ▲ 2
Buckley is now the heaviest favorite of the entire ceremony. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare earned her the BAFTA for Leading Actress, making her the first Irish performer to ever win that prize. Having cleared every hurdle so far, and most recently taking the win at the Actor Awards, Buckley is sitting at a dominant 97¢.
Ryan Coogler for Best Director (Sinners) | Chance 8% | ▼ 1
Despite Sinners making history with 13 BAFTA nominations and a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, Coogler lost the BAFTAs top directing prize to Paul Thomas Anderson. While the film did win for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, the Best Director momentum has shifted entirely away from Coogler.
Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director (One Battle After Another) | Chance 92% | ▲ 1
The overdue narrative has turned into a coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson. The Director’s price has now risen above 90¢, effectively pricing out any other contender as a statistical longshot.
PTA took home Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs, sending his prize soaring. He’s since been named at the 78th Annual Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards, as well as the Critics Choice Awards, keeping his ‘Yes’ price sky-high.
Current frontrunners: Price movement to date
How many Oscars will Sinners win?
Sinners broke records when this year’s Oscar nominations were announced, receiving the most nods for a single title in history. But will those nominations translate to wins?
In this Kalshi prediction market, you can trade contracts on the specific number of awards the title will take home on the night. With contracts for every possible outcome from zero to sixteen wins, the market provides a real-time, financialized look at how the film is expected to fare.
Currently, sentiment is heavily concentrated on Sinners winning three or four Oscars, priced at 22¢ and 26¢ respectively, suggesting the market doesn’t expect the film to sweep the awards ceremony in the same way as it did the nominations.
While Sinners received a historic number of Oscar nods, the rock bottom ‘Yes’ prices for double-digit wins (ranging from 1¢ to 2¢) indicate some serious skepticism about its true winning potential.
Oscar prediction markets explained
Finding the best value picks is just the first step in a successful Oscars prediction market trading strategy.
To navigate the volatile weeks leading up to the 98th Academy Awards, you need to understand the mechanics behind the movement, from why a Golden Globe win can create what’s known as a pricing trap, to how the preferential ballot system can make upsets more likely.
Check out our Complete Guide to Oscars Prediction Markets for a masterclass in reading the markets, choosing the best value picks and knowing when a ‘no’ could be your best option.
FAQs
Markets hate a shutout, so Chalamet’s BAFTA loss to a non-nominee had an immediate impact on his price. When Marty Supreme tied the record for the most BAFTA losses ever, it signaled to traders that the film might lack the across-the-board support needed to sweep the major Oscar categories.
Robert Aramayo is the first Best Actor BAFTA winner in 25 years to win without an Oscar nomination (due to the Oscars' earlier eligibility/nomination window). While he can't win the Oscar if he isn't on the ballot, his win has siphoned confidence away from Chalamet, causing the ‘Yes’ price for the frontrunner to dip.
Success in the top category usually creates a halo effect. You can see this in the technical markets. Because the film swept Editing and Cinematography at the BAFTAs, those Kalshi markets have moved to nearly 85¢-90¢ for a ‘Yes’ win at the Oscars.
A snub by the Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG awards) can quickly result in ‘yes’ prices plummeting, because the acting branch is the largest voting bloc in the Academy. 'Sentimental Value' was recently shut out of the Ensemble category, and its price fell as traders pivoted toward films like 'One Battle After Another.'
The Academy’s shortlists in technical and international categories act as the first major liquidity event, instantly wiping out any ‘Yes’ contracts for films that didn't make the cut. This gives us what’s known as a price floor. Once a film like ‘Frankenstein’ is confirmed for Makeup and Hairstyling, its price rarely drops again until the final nominations are announced.
