Paul Thomas Anderson has spent years as the Academy's bridesmaid, having received 11 nominations without a win. But his dominant sweep of early precursors like the Golden Globes, DGA Awards and the BAFTAs suggests that it’s finally his year.
One Battle After Another has seen its win probability reach near-total market saturation. The film’s triumph in London, where it took home six awards including Best Film and Best Director, has caused buyers on Kalshi to treat the Oscars as a mere formality.
Meanwhile, Marty Supreme, once the high-flying challenger, suffered the most losses (11) without a single win on February 22. And that, together with the Best Actor upset, sent shockwaves through prediction markets like Kalshi, as traders quickly adjusted their positions.
Key Takeaways:
- BAFTA upsets have caused huge price changes in the best supporting actor and actress markets.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is now the most locked-in winner on the board after the BAFTAs.
- Timothée Chalamet’s price has dipped following a shock loss to Robert Aramayo in London.
- Jessie Buckley remains a dominant force, having cemented her lead with a BAFTA win.
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Oscars Prediction Markets: Who is Rising... and Who is Falling?
We’ve seen a real shift in market sentiment over the past few days, with BAFTA sweeps and upsets creating brand new narratives ahead of the Oscars in a few weeks’ time.
While certain frontrunners have seen their prices surge toward a near-certain 90¢ following a trophy-filled night in London, others have seen their values plummet after high-profile upsets.
It means that now’s the perfect time to buy the dip. Sudden changes in narratives due to unexpected upsets and shock results at precursor events inevitably result in certain stars’ prices falling much further than their realistic winning potential. And therein lies the opportunity for traders looking for the best value opportunities on Kalshi.
Let’s take a look at the biggest movers of recent days. They could well be the ones to watch as we race towards the 98th Academy Awards.
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Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor (One Battle After Another) | Chance 53% | ▲ 36
In the wake of a surprise BAFTA win, Sean Penn has suddenly overtaken the season's previous frontrunner, Stellan Skarsgård. Penn’s victory in London also revitalized the sweep narrative for PTA’s thriller, and led to his ‘Yes’ price jumping from 17¢ to 53¢. Skarsgård’s price, on the other hand, fell from 66¢ to 27¢.
Wunmi Mosaku for Best Supporting Actress (Sinners) | Chance 26% | ▲ 11
The best supporting actress market is also proving to be volatile. Teyana Taylor remains the favorite, but Wunmi Mosaku is the name on everyone's lips following the BAFTAs. Her BAFTA win has led to some serious late-stage momentum, with a ‘Yes’ price for the actress rising from just 3¢ to 26¢. Teyana Taylor retains the lead at 52¢, but her price plummeted 20¢ this week.
Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor (Marty Supreme) | Chance 70% | ▼ 8
Timothée Chalamet remains the favorite to win the Oscar, but his perceived invincibility took a hit in London. Marty Supreme went 0-for-11 at the BAFTAs, and Chalamet’s loss to Aramayo suggests the race might be tighter than the Golden Globes indicated. As a result, Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price fell from 78¢ to 70¢.
Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor (One Battle After Another) | Chance 10% | ▼ 5
DiCaprio’s film was the big winner of the night, but Leo himself was overlooked for the acting prize in favor of Robert Aramayo. Despite being in the Best Picture frontrunner, the market is signaling that DiCaprio’s turn as Bob Ferguson may not be the role that earns him a second statue.
Jessie Buckley for Best Actress (Hamnet) | Chance 91% | ▲ 3
Buckley is now the heaviest favorite of the entire ceremony. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare earned her the BAFTA for Leading Actress, making her the first Irish performer to ever win that prize. Having cleared every hurdle so far, Buckley is sitting at a dominant 91¢.
Ryan Coogler for Best Director (Sinners) | Chance 6% | ▼ 5
Despite Sinners making history with 13 BAFTA nominations and a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, Coogler lost the BAFTAs top directing prize to Paul Thomas Anderson. While the film did win for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, the Best Director momentum has shifted entirely away from Coogler.
Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director (One Battle After Another) | Chance 92% | ▲ 2
The overdue narrative has turned into a coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson. The Director’s price has now risen above 90¢, effectively pricing out any other contender as a statistical longshot. PTA took home Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs, sending his prize soaring.
Current frontrunners: Price movement to date
Oscar prediction markets explained
Finding the best value picks is just the first step in a successful Oscars prediction market trading strategy.
To navigate the volatile weeks leading up to the 98th Academy Awards, you need to understand the mechanics behind the movement, from why a Golden Globe win can create what’s known as a pricing trap, to how the preferential ballot system can make upsets more likely.
Check out our Complete Guide to Oscars Prediction Markets for a masterclass in reading the markets, choosing the best value picks and knowing when a ‘no’ could be your best option.
FAQs
Markets hate a shutout, so Chalamet’s BAFTA loss to a non-nominee had an immediate impact on his price. When Marty Supreme tied the record for the most BAFTA losses ever, it signaled to traders that the film might lack the across-the-board support needed to sweep the major Oscar categories.
Robert Aramayo is the first Best Actor BAFTA winner in 25 years to win without an Oscar nomination (due to the Oscars' earlier eligibility/nomination window). While he can't win the Oscar if he isn't on the ballot, his win has siphoned confidence away from Chalamet, causing the ‘Yes’ price for the frontrunner to dip.
Success in the top category usually creates a halo effect. You can see this in the technical markets. Because the film swept Editing and Cinematography at the BAFTAs, those Kalshi markets have moved to nearly 85¢-90¢ for a ‘Yes’ win at the Oscars.
A snub by the Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG awards) can quickly result in ‘yes’ prices plummeting, because the acting branch is the largest voting bloc in the Academy. 'Sentimental Value' was recently shut out of the Ensemble category, and its price fell as traders pivoted toward films like 'One Battle After Another.'
The Academy’s shortlists in technical and international categories act as the first major liquidity event, instantly wiping out any ‘Yes’ contracts for films that didn't make the cut. This gives us what’s known as a price floor. Once a film like ‘Frankenstein’ is confirmed for Makeup and Hairstyling, its price rarely drops again until the final nominations are announced.
