Paul Thomas Anderson has spent years as the Academy's bridesmaid, having received 11 Academy Award nominations without a win so far. But this could well be his year.
One Battle After Another has seen its win probability skyrocket in recent weeks. The film’s triumph at the Golden Globes sent its chance % soaring on Kalshi, as buyers scrabbled to put their money on it ahead of the January nominations. Similarly, Marty Supreme is generating enormous interest, with many now expecting Timothée Chalamet to take the coveted Best Actor prize.
Key Takeaways:
- Timothée Chalamet’s price has soared since his win at the Golden Globes
- Markets tip Jessie Buckley for a Best Actress win
- An Oscar win feels well overdue for Paul Thomas Anderson
Oscars Prediction Markets: Who is Rising... and Who is Falling?
The price of favorites like Chalamet and Anderson may have gone through the roof in the wake of the Golden Globes results, but their awards have also sent prices tumbling on a few previous frontrunners. And when dips like these happen we often find the best value opportunities on Kalshi.
Here are six big names whose prices have shifted significantly in recent days. They could well be the ones to watch as we race towards the nominations announcement on 22 January.
Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor (Marty Supreme)
Chance 78% | ▲ 13
Chalamet now has full control of the Best Actor market, having usurped the force that is Leonardo DiCaprio. Chalamet now has a Golden Globe for his portrayal of ping-pong sensation Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme, and commentators fully expect him to take home a statue too.
- Market Movement: Chalamet’s price jumped from 62¢ to 78¢ following his win at the Golden Globes.
- The Challenger: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is one to watch. His price has plummeted recently, despite his surprise Globe win in the Drama category. Moura is now one of our best value picks.
Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor (One Battle After Another)
Chance 16% | ▼ 2
DiCaprio, once the de facto frontrunner, has seen his price drop significantly as a result of the rising popularity of Marty Supreme.
Despite a powerful performance in the Paul Thomas Anderson epic, the market is reacting to a perceived lack of new narrative for Leo, who already has a statue, compared to the possibility of a first-time win for Chalamet.
- Market Movement: DiCaprio’s price has drifted significantly, falling from a high of 75¢ in September, to a current 16¢ as traders pivot toward the Golden Globe winner.
- The Opportunity: Leonardo DiCaprio is now a value option. If Chalamet isn’t named at the upcoming Actor Awards, Leo’s price is expected to rebound to the 40¢+ range.
Wagner Moura for Best Actor (The Secret Agent)
Chance 4% | ▼ 3
In one of the more confusing moves of recent days, Wagner Moura’s price actually fell immediately after his Golden Globe win for Best Actor (Drama). It’s a result of the split-category effect in action. Moura didn’t go up against Chalamet at the Globes, so traders are still skeptical of his ability to beat him at the Oscars.
- Market Movement: Despite holding a fresh trophy, Moura’s price dropped from 20¢ at the start of this year to 4¢ as the market consolidated around Chalamet and DiCaprio.
- Movement to Watch: Moura is currently the definition of a value pick. If he secures a BAFTA or Actor Awards nomination in the coming weeks, things could change very swiftly indeed.
Jessie Buckley for Best Actress (Hamnet)
Chance 89% | ▲ 3
Buckley is currently the heaviest favorite of the entire ceremony. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare has dominated the critics' awards and now the betting markets.
- Market Movement: Currently sitting at a dominant 89¢ (89% implied probability).
- Market Sentiment: The 'No' side of this market on Kalshi has almost entirely dried up. Bettors can’t see a viable path for an upset from either Rose Byrne or Emma Stone.
Ryan Coogler for Best Director (Sinners)
Chance 4% | ▼ 12
Earlier in the season, Coogler was viewed as a real challenger to Paul Thomas Anderson. But Sinners was largely overlooked in the major categories at the Golden Globes, despite receiving plenty of nominations. And that meant a drop in the price of a ‘yes’ for its director Ryan Coogler.
- Market Movement: Coogler’s probability has plummeted to a mere 4% (4¢), effectively pricing him out of the race in the eyes of the majority.
- Market Sentiment: Traders are currently treating Best Director as a coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson. While Coogler is still unlikely to win, his current rock-bottom price might be an overreaction to the Golden Globes results.
Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director (One Battle After Another)
Chance 90% | ▲ 7
Victory at the Golden Globes, combined with the narrative that this is a prize that's long overdue, are fueling the rising price of Paul Thomas Anderson. After 11 career nominations without a win, he's now priced as an almost certain winner.
- Market Movement: Kalshi currently gives Anderson a 90% chance of winning, effectively making him the most locked-in pick of the market.
- Movement to Watch: Ryan Coogler (Sinners) remains a viable second choice. His price has fallen to 4¢ as a result of momentum behind Paul Thomas Anderson.
Current frontrunners: Price movement to date
Oscar prediction markets explained
Finding the best value picks is just the first step in a successful Oscars prediction market trading strategy.
To navigate the volatile weeks leading up to the 98th Academy Awards, you need to understand the mechanics behind the movement, from why a Golden Globe win can create what’s known as a pricing trap, to how the preferential ballot system can make upsets more likely.
Check out our Complete Guide to Oscars Prediction Markets for a masterclass in reading the markets, choosing the best value picks and knowing when a ‘no’ could be your best option.
FAQs
Why did Wagner Moura’s Golden Globe win cause a price spike and dip?
Moura’s Best Actor (Drama) win for The Secret Agent initially sent his price rocketing, but it soon settled as the market factored in the Golden Globes' history of idiosyncratic voting.
To win an Oscar, Moura still needs to beat Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), so that initial spike can be seen as little more than a sell the news moment for experienced traders.
Does an Actor Awards kill a nominee’s value?
A snub by the Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG awards) can quickly result in ‘yes’ prices plummeting, because the acting branch is the largest voting bloc in the Academy.
Sentimental Value was recently shut out of the Ensemble category, and its price fell as traders pivoted toward films like One Battle After Another.
How do the December shortlists function as a market floor?
The Academy’s shortlists in technical and international categories act as the first major liquidity event, instantly wiping out any 'Yes' contracts for films that didn't make the cut.
This gives us what’s known as a price floor. Once a film like Frankenstein is confirmed for Makeup and Hairstyling, its price rarely drops again until the final nominations are announced.
