To master the Oscars prediction markets, it’s a case of looking beyond the question of who will win. If you want to find real value, you need to identify pricing lags. By that, we mean moments in which the market has overreacted to breaking news, potentially overlooking the real mechanics of the Academy Awards.
The recent Golden Globe results are a textbook example. Following his win for Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet’s price on Kalshi surged to 78¢, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s market for One Battle After Another also went into overdrive. Wins of this kind create massive momentum, but that can mean that favorites become overpriced.
Key Takeaways:
- A Golden Globe isn’t always the best indicator of Oscars success
- Prediction markets can overreact to breaking news stories
- To find real value, it’s worth looking beyond the clear favorites
A Golden Globe win is definitely a powerful thing, but it’s not a perfect predictor of Oscar success. Unlike the Oscars, the Globes split acting and Best Picture into categories, and that can artificially inflate the perceived probability of a win.
Here are three examples of picks that may not be overall favorites, but still have realistic potential.
Oscars Prediction Markets: Three of the Best Value Picks Available Now
Pick 1: Wagner Moura for Best Actor (The Secret Agent)
While Chalamet is the favorite, Moura’s price has dropped significantly despite his Golden Globe win in the Drama category.
The split between Drama and Comedy at the Globes can complicate the Oscar market. Chalamet won Comedy, but Moura won in the prestigious Drama category. Given Moura’s current ‘yes’ price, buyers could well see massive payouts on a candidate who has already proven he can win a major award.
Pick 2: Amy Madigan for Best Supporting Actress (Weapons)
The Supporting Actress market has consolidated around Teyana Taylor (66¢), but Amy Madigan’s recent Critics Choice win could mean she has a better chance than buyers realize.
Taylor’s high price is driven by her film’s Best Picture momentum, but Madigan’s current stated chance of winning (18%) lags behind her actual winning potential.
Pick 3: Sentimental Value for Best Original Screenplay
Sinners is the favorite for Best Original Screenplay, now priced at 83¢ (83%). But Sentimental Value has real potential in this category, and it’s priced at just 7¢.
The Academy's writing branch often rewards films of this kind, and the movie’s low price is great value for a script that triumphed at the Golden Globes and Palm Springs.
If Sinners is viewed as a Directing win for Ryan Coogler, the Screenplay statue may well be destined for Sentimental Value.
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Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
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FAQs
Why did the prices of Golden Globe winners spike so quickly?
Prediction markets like Kalshi are peer-to-peer exchanges where prices reflect collective probability. When a nominee like Timothée Chalamet wins a Globe, traders rush to buy Yes shares to capitalize on the momentum. And that pushes the price up to reflect a higher perceived chance of an Oscar win.
Is a Golden Globe win a guarantee of an Oscar victory?
No. The Globes are a great booster, but they are voted on by journalists, not industry peers. Additionally, the Globes split many awards into Drama and Comedy categories. An Oscar winner must beat the top contenders from both groups, meaning a Globe winner's true probability is often lower than their price suggests.
What is a "Strategic No" and how does it work?
A 'No' contract allows you to bet that a specific nominee will not win. If a favorite like Paul Thomas Anderson is trading at a high price (90¢), buying No at 10¢ is a low-cost way to bet on an upset by any other director in the field.
