Last updated: 12 March at 3 a.m. ET
To master the Oscars prediction markets, it’s a case of looking beyond the question of who will win. If you want to find real value, you need to identify pricing lags. By that, we mean moments in which the market has overreacted to breaking news, potentially overlooking the real mechanics of the Academy Awards.
The Golden Globe results are a textbook example. Following his win for Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price on Kalshi surged to 78¢, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s market for One Battle After Another also went into overdrive.
Wins of this kind typically do create massive momentum, but that can mean that favorites become overpriced. And as we saw on March 1 when the Actor Awards winners were announced, it can all change in a single day.
Key Takeaways:
- A Golden Globe isn’t always the best indicator of Oscars success
- Prediction markets can overreact to breaking news stories
- To find real value, it’s worth looking beyond the clear favorites
A Golden Globe win is definitely a powerful thing, but it’s not a perfect predictor of Oscar success. Unlike the Oscars, the Globes split acting and Best Picture into categories, and that can artificially inflate the perceived probability of a win. Precursors like the Actor Awards, however, are a far more reliable indicator of a nominees real chances of victory at the Academy Awards.
Here are three examples of picks that may not be overall favorites, but still have realistic potential.
Oscars prediction markets: Three of the best value picks available now
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Pick 1: Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor (Sinners) | 48¢
Chalamet had been the favorite in this market for months, but the price of a ‘Yes’ for Michael B. Jordan shot up following his win at the Actor Awards.
Talk of a clean sweep for Chalamet has now completely died down, after the star was upset by Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs and Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards. And considering the crossover in voters for the Actor Awards and Oscars, it's looking increasingly likely that the trophy could be destined for Jordan rather than Chalamet. Currently, he’s a steal at 48¢.
Pick 2: Teyana Taylor for Best Supporting Actress (One Battle After Another) | 26¢
The Supporting Actress market is now behind Amy Madigan (52¢), but Teyana Taylor had been the frontrunner until the Actor Awards.
Taylor won the Golden Globe for this performance, but the Best Supporting Actress Critics Choice award went to current favorite Madigan. The BAFTA, however, was awarded to Wunmi Mosaku, which gives some indication as to how close this market really is.
Traders are reacting to the correlation between Actor Award and Academy Award winners, but Taylor could still have a better chance than buyers realize. Currently, a ‘Yes’ for the One Battle After Another star comes at a relatively low price, considering her actual chance of winning.
Pick 3: Sentimental Value for Best Original Screenplay | 2¢
Sinners is the heavy favorite for Best Original Screenplay, now priced at 95¢ (95%). But Sentimental Value has real potential in this category, and it’s priced at just 2¢.
The Academy's writing branch often rewards films of this kind, and the movie’s low price is great value for a script that triumphed at the Golden Globes and Palm Springs.
If Sinners is viewed as a Directing win for Ryan Coogler, the Screenplay statue may well be destined for Sentimental Value.
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Expert: “One Battle After Another is perfectly positioned to take Best Picture”
One of the top precursor events that traders will be monitoring ahead of the Oscars is of course the BAFTAs.
Despite the fact that BAFTA winners are announced after Oscar winners are decided upon, and therefore a win or loss at the BAFTAs cannot have any real influence on the Oscars, any BAFTA surprises or upsets will shake things up on the Oscars prediction markets.
We caught up with PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt to get her thoughts on why the BAFTAs are so powerful in terms of affecting Oscars odds.
“If Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another wins the BAFTA it doesn’t affect votes for the Oscars and SAG’s but it will change the narrative,” Carratt said.
“The press will jump on headlines like, “Paul Thomas Anderson Thriller Dominates British Awards,” and overnight, betting odds are likely to spike, and the buzz builds.”
“It’s less about shifting votes and more about perception, about cementing a narrative, hardening opinions as we’ve seen in past years. Oppenheimer got that post awards glow previously, Everything Everywhere All at Once got similar hype.”
Discrepancies between the number of nominations received by top films is another important factor to consider. We’ve got to take into account the fact that One Battle After Another leads the BAFTA nominations, while Sinners got a record-breaking number of Oscar nominations.
“That’s a fascinating dynamic because it shows the difference between British awards momentum and Academy attention. Hamnet could snag a surprise win, but the headlines, the chatter, the conversation, it all keeps One Battle After Another front and centre.”
“Even if Leonardo DiCaprio doesn’t snag Best Actor, One Battle After Another is perfectly positioned to take Best Film, cementing that “must-watch, must-discuss” title.
Oscars prediction markets explained
Check out our
Oscars Prediction Markets FAQs
Prediction markets like Kalshi are peer-to-peer exchanges where prices reflect collective probability. When a nominee like Timothée Chalamet wins a Globe, traders rush to buy 'Yes' shares to capitalize on the momentum, pushing the price up to reflect a higher perceived chance of an Oscar win.
No. The Globes are a great booster, but they are voted on by journalists, not industry peers. Additionally, the Globes split many awards into Drama and Comedy categories. An Oscar winner must beat the top contenders from both groups, meaning a Globe winner's true probability is often lower than their 'Yes' price suggests.
A 'No' contract allows you to bet that a specific nominee will not win. If a favorite like Paul Thomas Anderson is trading at a high price (90¢), buying 'No' shares at 10¢ is a low-cost way to bet on an upset by any other director in the field, effectively shorting the favorite.
