The road to the 99th Academy Awards is taking shape, and talk is of course beginning to center on the stars most likely to take the Best Actor and Best Actress statues.
Early prediction market probabilities show Julianne Moore and breakout contender Inde Navarrette as the most likely contenders, but we’re yet to see how many of the top titles will go down at the autumn festivals.
Best Actress Odds: Early Contenders for the 99th Academy Awards
At the moment, we’ve got established industry veterans and relative newcomers battling it out for traders’ attention. Nominations won’t be revealed until January, so there’s plenty of time for prices to move as critics’ reviews begin to pile in.
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Key Takeaways:
- The Frontrunner: Julianne Moore (The Debut) is top of the board at 33¢ ('Yes' implied 30% probability), following plenty of positive chatter around her leading role.
- Challenger Falls Behind: Inde Navarrette (Obsession) was right behind Moore last week, but her price has since dropped down to 20¢. Critics have been full of praise for her absolutely chilling performance, however.
- The Sleepers: Renate Reinsve (Fjord) and Sandra Hüller (Rose) both offer great risk-to-reward ratios at their current low prices.
Best Actress Odds: Current Market Leaders for the 2027 Oscars
Prediction markets tend to reward traders who act early, so if you want to get the best Oscars picks for the best possible prices, it’s best to make your decisions before films are released. That’s far from easy, but there’s plenty of information out there that can help us determine which stars are most likely to take the statue next.
Here’s a look at the current Kalshi board.
| Nominee / Film |  |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore (The Debut) | 33% | 33¢ | 70¢ |
| Inde Navarrette (Obsession) | 20% | 20¢ | 81¢ |
| Renate Reinsve (Fjord) | 13% | 13¢ | 90¢ |
| Sandra Hüller (Rose) | 13% | 13¢ | 90¢ |
| Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) | 12% | 12¢ | 91¢ |
| Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie) | 3% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning) | 2% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Penélope Cruz (The Invite) | 2% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Scarlett Johansson (Paper Tiger) | 2% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Dakota Johnson (Verity) | 1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Joan Collins (The Duchess and I) | 1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Kirsten Dunst (The Entertainment System Is Down) | 1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Natalie Portman (Photograph 51) | 1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Shailene Woodley (UNABOMBER) | 1% | 1¢ | -- |
Best Actress 2027: Early Market Leaders Gain Traction
Traders are focusing all of their attention on two names at the moment, but it could all change once we move into the fall campaign season.
The current market leaders are undoubtedly in with a great chance, but don’t overlook the longshots. They could have a higher realistic probability than the market is estimating right now. These are the favorites for best actress 2027.
Julianne Moore (The Debut) | 'Yes' 33¢
Julianne Moore’s 'Yes' contracts are now trading at 33¢. Starring in Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy The Debut, Moore delivers the kind of performance that we know the Academy loves.
The project itself is widely tipped for Oscars success, with co-star Paul Giamatti leading the board for Best Supporting Actor, too.
Moore has won Best Actress before. Twelve years ago, she took the statue for her portrayal of a linguistics professor facing Alzheimers in Still Alice. So, we know she’s got what it takes.
All that remains to be seen is whether The Debut can maintain its current momentum through the festival runs. If it does, these contracts will rise above the 50¢ mark before the end of the year.
Inde Navarrette (Obsession) | 'Yes' 20¢
In second place we have Inde Navarrette, whose 'Yes' price sits at 20¢ for her spooky role in Obsession, released in May.
There’s been much talk about Navarrette’s performance in this chilling psychological thriller. Those facial expressions in particular have got her plenty of praise on critical and viewer reviews alike.
However, titles like this have been known to come up against unpredictable voting patterns at the Oscars, so the 81¢ ‘No’ might be a better option at this stage. There's also the question of whether she might be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for the role, rather than Best Actress.
Best Actress 2027: Four Value Picks to Snap Up Before Fall
Act fact to take advantage of some of the best value picks before the Golden Globes and Actor Awards start to impact pricing. Here are four of the top Best Actress picks to consider at the moment.
Renate Reinsve (Fjord) | 'Yes' 13¢
At 11¢ per contract, Renate Reinsve has been nominated again, and she’s great value at this early stage. The Norwegian actress, who lost out to Jessie Buckley in March 2026, stars in Cristian Mungiu’s Cannes competitor Fjord.
The film is expected to do very well at fall festivals, and given the fact that the Academy has rewarded non-English language performances in major categories before, it’s definitely in with a chance. Reinsve’s current 11¢ price also leaves plenty of room for growth (and flip opportunities) in the coming months.
Sandra Hüller (Rose) | 'Yes' 13¢
Another name that’s well worth considering is Sandra Hüller, who could be nominated for Best Actress for her role in Rose.
The film was released back in February, and Hüller has been getting rave reviews for her performance as a woman who has posed as a man for her entire life.
Hüller has also been nominated for Best Actress before. In 2024, she got a nomination for Anatomy of a Fall, which is another reason why that current 10¢ price looks low.
Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) | 'Yes' 12¢
Priced at 12¢, Anne Hathaway is also nominated for her role in a film we can safely expect to take plenty of statues in March, Christopher Nolan’s action epic The Odyssey.
Major blockbusters like this do sometimes push acting contenders into supporting categories (see Robert Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor).
Given the film’s dominance at the box office, commentators have started to question whether Hathaway’s performance could win her the Best Actress prize. However, she’s also top of the odds for Best Supporting Actress, for Verity, and it’s worth noting that no one has ever won both at the same Oscars before.
Best Supporting Actress Odds 2027
It’s not all about Best Actress, of course. There’s also a market for Best Supporting Actress, and it’s generating almost as much interest as the lead category.
Hathaway is top of the board for her role in Verity, followed by Inde Navarrette (Obsession), with some traders backing Navarrette for Supporting Actress rather than Best Actress.
2027 Best Actress Betting Guide: Finding the Next Buckley
The 99th Academy Awards will be here before you know it, but if you’re still unsure about which actresses to back ahead of the ceremony, it’s worth taking a look back at what happened in March 2026, and what that can teach us for this Best Actress market.
Watch out for the prestige director premium
Keep an eye on any lead actress cast in upcoming projects by prestige directors, like Cristian Mungiu (Fjord) or Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey). The Zhao-Buckley partnership proved that a director of this calibre can act as a price floor, rarely letting a candidate drop below 50¢ once the festivals begin.
Identify the narrative early
Actors often win because they’re seen as showing the perfect performance at the right time. For 2027, look out for actresses with a due narrative (performers like Renate Reinsve or Sandra Hüller) who might still be priced as longshots (10¢–20¢) before the precursor awards begin.
Watch the ‘No’ contracts
If a favorite emerges next year with a price above 90¢, but without a SAG or BAFTA win, that is your signal to move. The 2026 markets showed that while Buckley held her ground, the ‘No’ side of the contract is often where the highest ROI sits when a frontrunner lacks a clean sweep.
Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
Prediction sites like Kalshi function more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you are trading event contracts with other participants.
On prediction markets, every contract is binary and priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price represents the market's collective belief in the probability of a win. For example, if Julianne Moore is trading at 89¢, the market sees an 89% chance of her taking home the Oscar.
If Moore wins, the contract settles at $1.00, but you can also sell your position early to lock in profits as precursor events shift the odds.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Far from it. While a 37¢ price (37% implied probability) puts Moore at the top of the board, prediction markets don't view a candidate as a prohibitive favorite until contract prices clear the 85¢–90¢ threshold. With Inde Navarrette trading right on her heels at 33¢ and the fall festival circuit still ahead, a 37% share simply reflects an early lead in a very open race.
Prediction markets price category placement and narrative fit over pure star power. While The Odyssey will have massive box-office visibility, traders are factoring in two things: giant action epics rarely win lead acting trophies, and Hathaway holds a much stronger position in the Best Supporting Actress market for Verity, where she currently leads at 51¢.
Festival debuts and precursor wins act as immediate market catalysts. If a lower-priced dark horse like Reinsve (11¢) or Sandra Hüller (10¢) captures major critical honors, the prices for frontrunners like Moore and Navarrette will contract as capital redistributes. Savvy traders use these precursor swings to pick up discounted 'Yes' contracts before the broader market catches up.
For 1¢ long shots, buying a 'No' contract at 99¢ requires risking 99¢ just to lock in a 1¢ profit. For most traders, that isn't a high-value entry point. Instead, the smartest use of 'No' contracts is fading overhyped frontrunners, like taking 'No' on a 33¢ candidate at 70¢ if you believe their film will face stiff resistance from traditional Academy voters.
In the late summer and fall, the Venice and Telluride film festival premieres trigger the first massive repricing wave. Moving into early 2027, the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) carry the heaviest weight. Because the Screen Actors Guild shares substantial voter overlap with the Academy's acting branch, whoever takes home that trophy almost always sees their Kalshi price surge past 85¢ overnight.
