The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards have set the stage for a dramatic showdown in the Best Actress category.
The Best Actor race now feels like something of a runaway train for Timothée Chalamet, and it’s not dissimilar in the Best Actress market. Jessie Buckley is by far the favorite here. Her ‘Yes’ price has been climbing steadily since the start of the year, and it seems little now stands in her way.
Traders on Kalshi may have chosen their frontrunner, but with two more important precursor events to go the stakes remain high. And that means there’s still value to be found amongst Buckley’s top contenders, for those prepared to bet on an upset.
Key Takeaways:
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the overwhelming favorite with an 89% implied probability.
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) could be a dark horse, given her Golden Globe win.
- Emma Stone (Bugonia) has gained little market traction despite having won twice.
Best Actress Market Movement: Buckley Surges Ahead
The Oscar nominations were announced on January 22, but by that time the market had already consolidated around Jessie Buckley for her role as Agnes Hathaway in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet. Buckley has been nearly unbeatable this season, with back-to-back wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
Currently, a ‘Yes’ contract for Buckley on Kalshi is trading at 89¢. That’s down slightly from a peak of 91¢ in mid-January, but it’s still firmly in near-lock territory. Traders are betting heavily on the narrative that Hamnet, which secured 11 BAFTA nominations, is this year’s big winner.
Emma Stone, who many thought would be a major threat for her role in Bugonia, has seen her price collapse to just 3¢. Despite her proven winning ability, the market doesn’t believe Stone is headed for a third Oscar win this year.
Best Actress: The Nominees
| Contender | Film | 'Yes' Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | 89¢ | ▬ |
| Rose Byrne | If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | 7¢ | ▼ |
| Emma Stone | Bugonia | 3¢ | ▲ |
| Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value | 2¢ | ▬ |
| Kate Hudson | Song Sung Blue | 2¢ | ▬ |
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | ‘Yes’ 89¢ | Chance: 89%
Buckley’s portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife has sent her 'Yes' price soaring. With Hamnet breaking records for female-directed films at the BAFTAs, she is the undoubted heavyweight in this category.
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | ‘Yes’ 7¢ | Chance: 5%
Byrne is the most likely candidate for an upset. Her win at the Golden Globes in the Comedy/Musical category proved she has a loyal base of support. At 7¢, she’s currently the strategic hedge for traders betting against a Buckley sweep.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) | ‘Yes’ 3¢ | Chance: 3%
Critics praised her performance in the Yorgos Lanthimos sci-fi Bugonia, but the market hasn’t got behind Emma Stone this time. Traders are treating her as a long shot, with her 3¢ price reflecting doubt that the Academy would award Stone a third Best Actress trophy so soon after a second.
Will it be a Clean Sweep for Jessie Buckley?
To join the ranks of Joaquin Phoenix and Daniel Day-Lewis and get a clean sweep at this year’s major televised awards ceremonies, Jessie Buckley needs to secure three more trophies. She’s already won the Critics Choice and Golden Globe, so all eyes are now on the two remaining precursor events: the Actor Awards (SAG) and the BAFTAs. Here's how things currently stand.
| Award | Status | Film |
|---|---|---|
| Critics Choice | WON | Hamnet |
| Golden Globe | WON | Hamnet |
| Actor Awards (SAG) | Pending | Hamnet |
| BAFTA | Pending | Hamnet |
| Academy Award | Pending | Hamnet |
Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
Prediction markets like Kalshi function more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you are trading event contracts with other participants.
On prediction markets, every contract is binary and priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price represents the market's collective belief in the probability of a win. For example, if Jessie Buckley is trading at 89¢, the market sees an 89% chance of her taking home the Oscar.
If Buckley wins, the contract settles at $1.00, but you can also sell your position early to lock in profits as precursor events shift the odds.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Not necessarily. While an 89¢ price (89% probability) indicates a dominant frontrunner, prediction markets don't consider an event a lock until the price crosses the 95¢ threshold. In the Best Actress category, late-season surges, like the one we are seeing from Rose Byrne, can still cause significant price corrections before the final envelope is opened.
The market often tracks narrative momentum over past pedigree. With Buckley sweeping the early precursors and Hamnet positioned as the year's prestige heavyweight, traders are betting that the Academy is unlikely to award Stone a third trophy so soon after her 2024 win.
The BAFTAs are a massive market catalyst. If a lower-priced candidate like Reinsve (2¢) or Byrne (7¢) wins in London, Buckley’s price would likely plummet as traders hedge their positions. This creates a high-volatility environment where savvy traders can pick up ‘Yes’ contracts for the new favorite at a discount before the market stabilizes.
On Kalshi, the ‘No’ price is often where the smart money sits for long shots. For most traders, the value is found in finding a strategic no on a fading favorite rather than betting against the underdogs.
The Actor Awards (formerly SAG). Because the Screen Actors Guild shares the largest percentage of voters with the Academy's acting branch, the winner there almost always becomes the favorite. If Buckley wins the Actor Award, we can expect her Kalshi price to jump toward 95¢ immediately.
