Last updated: 12 March at 7 a.m. ET
The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards have set the stage for a dramatic showdown in the Best Actress category.
Jessie Buckley is by far the favorite here. Her ‘Yes’ price has been climbing steadily since the start of the year, and given her success across all the main precursor events, it seems little now stands in her way.
“It’s [Buckley’s] year,” says PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt. “From a PR perspective, she’s the “sure thing.” Clean, credible, and exactly the kind of talent the press loves to champion. I’d fully expect her to take home the BAFTA for Best Actress, and the Oscar could very well follow.”
Traders on Kalshi may have chosen their frontrunner, but with two weeks to go the stakes remain high. Could there be value to be found amongst Buckley’s top contenders, for those prepared to bet on an upset?
Key Takeaways:
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the overwhelming favorite with a 95% implied probability.
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) had emerged as the primary dark horse following her Golden Globe win, but her price has dropped.
- Emma Stone (Bugonia) has gained little market traction despite having won twice.
Best Actress Market Movement: Buckley Surges Ahead
The Oscar nominations were announced on January 22, and the market quickly consolidated around Jessie Buckley for her role as Agnes Hathaway in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet. Buckley has been unbeatable this season, with back-to-back wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs and most recently, the Actor Awards.
Currently, a ‘Yes’ contract for Buckley on Kalshi is trading at 97¢. That’s even higher than her January peak of 91¢ in mid-January, and now firmly in near-lock territory. Traders are betting heavily on the narrative that Hamnet, which secured 11 BAFTA nominations, is this year’s big winner.
Emma Stone, who many thought would be a major threat for her role in Bugonia, has seen her price collapse to just 2¢. Despite her pedigree, the market doesn’t believe Stone is headed for a third Oscar win this year.
Best Actress: The Nominees
| Contender | Film | 'Yes' Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | 97¢ | ▲ |
| Rose Byrne | If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | 3¢ | ▼ |
| Emma Stone | Bugonia | 1¢ | ▬ |
| Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value | 1¢ | ▬ |
| Kate Hudson | Song Sung Blue | 1¢ | ▬ |
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | ‘Yes’ 97¢ | Chance: 97%
Buckley’s portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife has sent her 'Yes' price soaring. With Hamnet breaking records for female-directed films at the BAFTAs, she is the undoubted heavyweight in this category.
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | ‘Yes’ 3¢ | Chance: 3%
Byrne is the most likely candidate for an upset. Her win at the Golden Globes in the Comedy/Musical category proved she has a loyal base of support. At 4¢, she’s currently the strategic hedge for traders betting against a Buckley sweep.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | Chance: 1%
Critics praised her performance in the Yorgos Lanthimos sci-fi Bugonia, but the market hasn’t gotten behind Emma Stone this time. Traders are treating her as a long shot, with her 1¢ price reflecting doubt that the Academy would award Stone a third Best Actress trophy so soon after a second.
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Expert: “No denying that Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner, but awards seasons are never one-dimensional”
The momentum behind Jessie Buckley is now “undeniable,” says PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt.
“Jessie Buckley is the actress everyone’s talking about this awards season. From a PR perspective, she’s the “sure thing.” Clean, credible, and exactly the kind of talent the press loves to champion.”
“I’d fully expect her to take home the BAFTA for Best Actress, and the Oscar could very well follow. It’s her year.”
There’s still the potential for an upset in this market, though, and that means ‘Yes’ contracts for Buckley’s rivals offer great value at the moment. When asked about the actress most likely to give Buckley a run for her money, Carratt told us that Rose Byrne is the one the watch.
“The beauty of awards seasons is that surprises happen, and sometimes voters like to back something a little different, a little quirky, or a strong British contender.”
“Keep an eye on Australian actress Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. She’s had a late surge with critics, and history shows the Academy doesn’t shy away from underdogs when they strike the right chord.”
Sentimental Value has been hitting headlines recently too; the film’s chances of taking home multiple status are on the rise, and that could make it more likely that its leading actress, Renate Reinsve, takes the top prize at the Academy Awards.
“Renate Reinsve from Sentimental Value is another interesting contender. If voters are looking to shake things up, she could be the fresh, unexpected choice. From a media standpoint, these are the stories that get people talking, the “who knew?” moments that make headlines.”
“There is no denying that Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner, but awards seasons are never one-dimensional. There’s room for intrigue, and that’s exactly what makes this year’s Best Actress race so compelling.”
Will it be a Clean Sweep for Jessie Buckley?
To join the ranks of Joaquin Phoenix and Daniel Day-Lewis and get a clean sweep at this year’s major televised awards ceremonies, Jessie Buckley needs to secure three more trophies. She’s already won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA. Here's how things currently stand.
| Award | Status | Film |
|---|---|---|
| Critics Choice | WON | Hamnet |
| Golden Globe | WON | Hamnet |
| BAFTA | WON | Hamnet |
| Actor Awards (SGA) | WON | Hamnet |
| Academy Award | Pending | Hamnet |
Best Supporting Actress
The Best Supporting Actress market is seeing some major movement on Kalshi boards. Teyana Taylor had been priced at 72¢ recently, but now has just a 27% implied probability. The catalyst for this movement was Wunmi Mosaku's surprise win at the BAFTAs. However, Amy Madigan is now in first place. Her 'Yes' price shot up after she was named Best Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards.
Amy Madigan (Weapons) | ‘Yes’ 50¢ | Chance 50% ▲ 5
Madigan’s Critics Choice win proved she had the support of industry veterans, but her ‘Yes’ price remains relatively low at around 17¢... until March 1. When Madigan was named Best Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards, her price shot up overnight to put her in frontrunner position. This is the first nomination in 40 years for Amy Madigan, and that too could well sway some voters when making their final decisions.
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | ‘Yes’ 26¢ | Chance 26% ▼ 4
One Battle After Another is one of the big success stories of this awards season, so it should come as no surprise that Teyana Taylor is amongst the favorites in this market. While Taylor did win a Golden Globe, she’s fallen behind Madigan since the Actor Awards.
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | ‘Yes’ 21¢ | Chance 21% ▲ 1
The Academy definitely likes Sinners. No other film in history has ever got so many nominations. Mosaku did not win at the Golden Globes but rebounded to score a surprise victory at the BAFTAs. She had just a 4% chance to win a few weeks ago but is now up to 22%.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | ‘Yes’ 3¢ | Chance 2% ▼ 1
Lilleaas has the backing of high-profile filmmakers (including PTA himself) and there’s clearly strong international support, given her BAFTA nomination. But with two actresses nominated for the same film, she does face the potential issue of vote splitting. At just 3¢, Lilleaas is good value, but risky.
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | Chance 1% ▼ 1
This is the first ever Oscar nod for Elle Fanning, and it certainly confirms the Academy's love for Sentimental Value. Traders aren’t currently expecting a win for Fanning, though, given the fact that she’s in direct competition with Lilleaas.
Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
Prediction sites like Kalshi function more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you are trading event contracts with other participants.
On prediction markets, every contract is binary and priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price represents the market's collective belief in the probability of a win. For example, if Jessie Buckley is trading at 89¢, the market sees an 89% chance of her taking home the Oscar.
If Buckley wins, the contract settles at $1.00, but you can also sell your position early to lock in profits as precursor events shift the odds.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Not necessarily. While an 91¢ price (91% probability) indicates a dominant frontrunner, prediction markets don't consider an event a lock until the price crosses the 95¢ threshold. In the Best Actress category, late-season surges, like the one we are seeing from Rose Byrne, can still cause significant price corrections before the final envelope is opened.
The market often tracks narrative momentum over past pedigree. With Buckley sweeping the early precursors and Hamnet positioned as the year's prestige heavyweight, traders are betting that the Academy is unlikely to award Stone a third trophy so soon after her 2024 win.
The BAFTAs are a massive market catalyst. If a lower-priced candidate like Reinsve (2¢) or Byrne (7¢) wins in London, Buckley’s price would likely plummet as traders hedge their positions. This creates a high-volatility environment where savvy traders can pick up ‘Yes’ contracts for the new favorite at a discount before the market stabilizes.
On Kalshi, the ‘No’ price is often where the smart money sits for long shots. For most traders, the value is found in finding a strategic no on a fading favorite rather than betting against the underdogs.
The Actor Awards (formerly SAG). Because the Screen Actors Guild shares the largest percentage of voters with the Academy's acting branch, the winner there almost always becomes the favorite. If Buckley wins the Actor Award, we can expect her Kalshi price to jump toward 95¢ immediately.
