The 2026 Academy Awards have officially concluded, and the prediction markets have been settled. As expected, Buckley completed a historic sweep of the 2026 awards season, ending her run by picking up the Best Actress statue.
Buckley had been a lock for weeks before the 98th Academy Awards, with a succession of precursor wins cementing her position as the favorite in this race.
“It’s [Buckley’s] year,” said PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt ahead of the big night. “From a PR perspective, she’s the “sure thing.” Clean, credible, and exactly the kind of talent the press loves to champion. I’d fully expect her to take home the BAFTA for Best Actress, and the Oscar could very well follow.”
Traders on Kalshi chose their frontrunner early on, and were proved right. Those betting on an upset stood to win enormous sums, but ultimately it was the favorite Buckley that took the prize.
Key Takeaways:
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) was the overwhelming favorite with a 96% implied probability.
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) emerged as the primary dark horse following her Golden Globe win, but her price dropped shortly before the Oscars.
- Emma Stone (Bugonia) gained little market traction despite having won twice.
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Best Actress Odds 2027: It’s time for the early picks
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Jessie Buckley has just picked up her statue, but the focus is already shifting to the powerhouse performances this year has to bring.
For those looking to identify the next near-lock well ahead of the competition, the 99th Academy Awards cycle has already begun.
Kalshi has officially opened trading for the 2027 Best Actress market. And this early window is where the most significant value is found, as it allows traders to secure 'Yes' contracts on emerging festival favorites long before the precursor awards consolidate the field.
Whether you're betting on a veteran's return or a breakout star, the road to the 2027 Oscars starts now.
Best Actress Prices Ahead of the 2026 Oscars
| Nominee | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | 97% | 97¢ | 4¢ |
| Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | 3% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | <1% | 1¢ | - |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | <1% | 1¢ | - |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | <1% | 1¢ | - |
Probabilities and prices provided by Kalshi - accurate as of March 13
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The Oscar nominations were announced on January 22, and the market quickly consolidated around Jessie Buckley for her role as Agnes Hathaway in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet. Buckley was unbeatable throughout the season, with back-to-back wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs and most recently, the Actor Awards.
Shortly before the Oscar winners were announced, a ‘Yes’ contract for Buckley on Kalshi was trading at 96¢. Her prise rose even higher than her January peak of 91¢, and sat firmly in near-lock territory. Traders had been betting heavily on the narrative that Hamnet, which secured 11 BAFTA nominations, would be the year’s big winner.
Emma Stone, who many thought would be a major threat for her role in Bugonia, saw her price collapse to just 2¢. Despite her pedigree, the market never believed Stone was headed for a third Oscar win.
✅ Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | ‘Yes’ 96¢ | Chance: 96%
Buckley’s portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife sent her 'Yes' price soaring. With Hamnet breaking records for female-directed films at the BAFTAs, she was the undoubted heavyweight (and ultimate winner) in this category.
❌ Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | ‘Yes’ 3¢ | Chance: 3%
Byrne was the most likely candidate for an upset. Her surprise win at the Golden Globes in the Comedy/Musical category proved she has a loyal base of support. At 4¢, she had been a good strategic hedge for traders betting against a Buckley sweep.
❌ Emma Stone (Bugonia) | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | Chance: 1%
Critics praised Stone’s performance in the Yorgos Lanthimos sci-fi Bugonia, but the market never got behind her this time. Traders treated her as a long shot, with her 2¢ price reflecting doubt that the Academy would award her a third Best Actress trophy so soon after a second.
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2026 Best Actress Race: The Buckley Juggernaut
While the Best Actor race (won by Michael B. Jordan) was defined by a late-stage flip, the Best Actress category was a story of immovable dominance.
Entering the night, Buckley was trading at a staggering 96¢, reflecting a 96% implied probability. Unlike the volatility seen in previous years, the Hamnet narrative never wavered. Traders who bought in early at 80¢ or 91¢ saw a steady, albeit low-yield, climb to the finish line.
Some contrarian traders looked to Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) as a strategic hedge. At 4¢, Byrne was the lottery ticket option. But as the envelope was opened, the market proved that Buckley's trajectory was destined to take her all the way to a clean sweep.
Expert: “No denying that Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner, but awards seasons are never one-dimensional”
The momentum behind Jessie Buckley is now “undeniable,” says PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt.
“Jessie Buckley is the actress everyone’s talking about this awards season. From a PR perspective, she’s the “sure thing.” Clean, credible, and exactly the kind of talent the press loves to champion.”
“I’d fully expect her to take home the BAFTA for Best Actress, and the Oscar could very well follow. It’s her year.”
There’s still the potential for an upset in this market, though, and that means ‘Yes’ contracts for Buckley’s rivals offer great value at the moment. When asked about the actress most likely to give Buckley a run for her money, Carratt told us that Rose Byrne is the one the watch.
“The beauty of awards seasons is that surprises happen, and sometimes voters like to back something a little different, a little quirky, or a strong British contender.”
“Keep an eye on Australian actress Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. She’s had a late surge with critics, and history shows the Academy doesn’t shy away from underdogs when they strike the right chord.”
Sentimental Value has been hitting headlines recently too; the film’s chances of taking home multiple status are on the rise, and that could make it more likely that its leading actress, Renate Reinsve, takes the top prize at the Academy Awards.
“Renate Reinsve from Sentimental Value is another interesting contender. If voters are looking to shake things up, she could be the fresh, unexpected choice. From a media standpoint, these are the stories that get people talking, the “who knew?” moments that make headlines.”
“There is no denying that Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner, but awards seasons are never one-dimensional. There’s room for intrigue, and that’s exactly what makes this year’s Best Actress race so compelling.”
A Clean Sweep for Jessie Buckley
Jessie Buckley had already won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, Actor Award (SAG) and BAFTA for her role in Hamnet. She needed just one more award to complete the clean sweep that dominated the headlines in the run-up to the Oscars.
| Award | Status | Film |
|---|---|---|
| Critics Choice | WON | Hamnet |
| Golden Globe | WON | Hamnet |
| Actor Awards (SAG) | WON | Hamnet |
| BAFTA | WON | Hamnet |
| Academy Award | WON | Hamnet |
2027 Best Actress Betting Guide: Finding the Next Buckley
With the 98th Oscars in the books, we can start thinking about the 2027 (99th Academy Awards) landscape. Here are a few tips on how to play the Best Actress market next year.
Watch out for the prestige director premium
Keep an eye on any lead actress cast in upcoming projects by Chloé Zhao or Yorgos Lanthimos. The Zhao-Buckley partnership proved that a prestige director can act as a price floor, rarely letting a candidate drop below 50¢ once the festivals begin.
Identify the narrative early
Actors often win because they’re seen as showing the perfect performance at the right time. For 2027, look out for actresses with a due narrative (performers like Florence Pugh or Saoirse Ronan) who might be priced relatively low (20¢–30¢) before the precursor awards begin.
Watch the ‘No’ contracts
If a favorite emerges next year with a price above 90¢, but without a SAG or BAFTA win, that is your signal to move. The 2026 markets showed that while Buckley held her ground, the ‘No’ side of the contract is often where the highest ROI sits when a frontrunner lacks a clean sweep.
Best Supporting Actress Prices Ahead of the Oscars
| Nominee | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Madigan (Weapons) | 46% | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | 28% | 29¢ | 72¢ |
| Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | 19% | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | 4% | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | <1% | 1¢ | - |
Probabilities and prices provided by Kalshi - accurate as of March 13
The Best Supporting Actress market saw some major movement on Kalshi boards before the 2026 Oscars.
Teyana Taylor had been priced at 72¢ weeks before, but later had just a 27% implied probability. The catalyst for this movement was Wunmi Mosaku's surprise win at the BAFTAs. However, Amy Madigan rose to first place ahead of her win. Her 'Yes' price shot up after she was named Best Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards.
✅ Amy Madigan (Weapons) | ‘Yes’ 46¢ | Chance 46% ▲ 1
Madigan’s Critics Choice win proved she had the support of industry veterans, but her ‘Yes’ price remained relatively low at around 17¢... until March 1. When Madigan was named Best Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards, her price shot up overnight to put her in frontrunner position. This was the first nomination in 40 years for Amy Madigan, and ultimately it proved successful.
❌ Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | ‘Yes’ 29¢ | Chance 29% ▼ 4
One Battle After Another is one of the big success stories of this awards season, so Teyana Taylor was of course amongst the favorites in this market. While Taylor did win a Golden Globe, she fell behind Madigan after the Actor Awards.
❌ Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | ‘Yes’ 19¢ | Chance 19% ▼ 2
The Academy definitely likes Sinners. No other film in history has ever got so many nominations. Mosaku did not win at the Golden Globes but rebounded to score a surprise victory at the BAFTAs. She had just a 4% chance to win a few weeks before the Oscars, but that later rose to 19%.
❌ Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | ‘Yes’ 4¢ | Chance 4% ▲ 2
Lilleaas had the backing of high-profile filmmakers (including PTA himself) and there was clearly strong international support, given her BAFTA nomination. But with two actresses nominated for the same film, she faced the potential issue of vote splitting. At just 3¢, Lilleaas was always a risky option.
❌ Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | Chance 1% ▼ 1
This was the first ever Oscar nod for Elle Fanning, and it certainly confirmed the Academy's love for Sentimental Value. Traders weren't currently expecting a win for Fanning, though, given the fact that she was in direct competition with Lilleaas.
Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
Prediction sites like Kalshi function more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you are trading event contracts with other participants.
On prediction markets, every contract is binary and priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price represents the market's collective belief in the probability of a win. For example, if Jessie Buckley is trading at 89¢, the market sees an 89% chance of her taking home the Oscar.
If Buckley wins, the contract settles at $1.00, but you can also sell your position early to lock in profits as precursor events shift the odds.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Not necessarily. While an 91¢ price (91% probability) indicates a dominant frontrunner, prediction markets don't consider an event a lock until the price crosses the 95¢ threshold. In the Best Actress category, late-season surges, like the one we are seeing from Rose Byrne, can still cause significant price corrections before the final envelope is opened.
The market often tracks narrative momentum over past pedigree. With Buckley sweeping the early precursors and Hamnet positioned as the year's prestige heavyweight, traders are betting that the Academy is unlikely to award Stone a third trophy so soon after her 2024 win.
The BAFTAs are a massive market catalyst. If a lower-priced candidate like Reinsve (2¢) or Byrne (7¢) wins in London, Buckley’s price would likely plummet as traders hedge their positions. This creates a high-volatility environment where savvy traders can pick up ‘Yes’ contracts for the new favorite at a discount before the market stabilizes.
On Kalshi, the ‘No’ price is often where the smart money sits for long shots. For most traders, the value is found in finding a strategic no on a fading favorite rather than betting against the underdogs.
The Actor Awards (formerly SAG). Because the Screen Actors Guild shares the largest percentage of voters with the Academy's acting branch, the winner there almost always becomes the favorite. If Buckley wins the Actor Award, we can expect her Kalshi price to jump toward 95¢ immediately.
