Last updated: 12 March at 3 a.m. ET
As we approach the 98th Academy Awards later this month, speculation as to who will be walking the red carpet is proving almost as volatile as the battle for Best Picture.
On the Kalshi Oscars prediction markets, traders are buying ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts on who will show up, a newly opened market that’s already seen massive swings in prices.
Key Takeaways:
- Margot Robbie currently offers the best risk-to-reward ratio for a likely attendee.
- Zendaya's attendance represents the most volatile coin flip opportunity for traders.
- Kylie Jenner is a low cost 'No' but don't forget partner Chalamet is poised for a clean sweep.
Prices are rising for Hollywood heavyweights, but there’s been considerable movement amongst influencers and musicians too.
Here’s the latest from the red carpet race, from Kylie Jenner’s staggering price to Taylor Swift’s current long-shot status.
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Who will attend the Oscars?
Kylie Jenner | 'Yes' 94¢
Kylie Jenner is currently the heaviest favorite on the board. Trading at 94¢, the market views her attendance as a lock. We’d happen to agree, considering her recent presence at high-profile awards and the fact that her partner, Timothée Chalamet, may win his first Oscar on the night.
Hudson Williams | 'Yes' 96¢
Williams’ price rose had been sitting above 70¢, signaling high confidence from traders that the rising actor will make his red carpet debut, but it then dropped right back down to 31¢. That turned out to be a great opportunity for traders, as his price later drifted back over 60¢ and has since risen right up to 96¢ as the ceremony draws closer.
Margot Robbie | 'Yes' 30¢
Margot Robbie is currently trading at 30¢. Given her status as a perennial nominee and previous winner, this seems low. The 76¢ ‘No’ indicates plenty of market skepticism, perhaps regarding filming schedules, but for traders looking for a solid entry, Robbie is good value at this price.
Zendaya | 'Yes' 74¢
The market had initially been skeptical about Zendaya’s attendance, but her price has risen steadily in recent days. Her absence would be unusual, considering her status. She has attended regularly in recent years, but was absent last year due to filming commitments. It’s worth noting, though, that she and partner Tom Holland both skipped the Golden Globes this year.
Taylor Swift | 'Yes' 6¢
Swift historically only attends the Oscars if she is nominated or supporting a partner. However, last month her price shot up past 50¢, and kept rising. Last week, it was down to 10¢, and its since dropped further to the current price of 6¢. Taylor hasn’t got a nomination this year, so she’s still a relatively high risk ‘Yes’. However, if you think the Academy might persuade her for a ratings boost, she could be a good pick at this price.
Red carpet picks: The latest movement
Three of the best value picks available now
Several A-listers are now priced as near locks to walk the red carpet in March. But the real potential in these markets lies nearer to the middle of the board. Look out for options where public perception might not be in line with reality. Here are three to consider right now.
Best Value Yes: Connor Storie | ‘Yes’ 16¢
A price like this on a breakout star of Storie's caliber is rare. Unless a specific conflict is announced, he is a high-probability attendee.
Best Value No: Kevin Hart | ‘No’ 87¢
Kevin Hart does attend awards ceremonies relatively frequently, but he has no nominations this time and hasn't been listed amongst the announced presenters.
The Wildcard: Kylie Jenner | ‘No’ 6¢
The likelihood is that Jenner will attend with her partner Chalamet. However, she might opt to skip the ceremony and join him at the after party instead. If she does, there's huge profit to be made on this one.
Understanding Kalshi: How to Trade the Oscars
Unlike a traditional sportsbook where you bet against the house, Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that functions like a stock exchange. With Kalshi, you aren't just placing a wager, you’re trading event contracts with other people.
On Kalshi, every outcome is a Yes or No question (e.g., "Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress?").
- The Price is the Probability: Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢. If a Yes contract for Teyana Taylor is 72¢, the market believes she has a 72% chance of winning.
- The Payout: If your prediction is correct, every contract you own settles at $1.00. Your profit is the difference between the price you paid and $1.00.
- Trading in Real-Time: You don’t have to wait until Oscar night to collect. If you buy a contract at 30¢ and a major precursor win (like the Actor Awards) drives the price up to 70¢, you can sell your shares immediately to lock in a profit.
Oscars Prediction Market FAQs
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, making it one of the only fully legal platforms in the United States to trade on cultural and political events. Unlike offshore sportsbooks, your funds are held in regulated clearinghouses.
Buying a ‘No’ contract is essentially betting that an event won't happen. For example, if you buy a ‘No’ contract on a heavy favorite for 20¢ and they lose, your contract settles at $1.00, netting you an 80¢ profit per share. This is a popular strategy for hedging against overpriced favorites.
Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. When new information drops, like a BAFTA win or a viral red carpet rumor, traders rush to buy or sell, causing the price (and the implied probability) to shift instantly.
No. The maximum you can lose is the amount you paid for the contracts. There are no margin call or hidden debts. If your prediction is wrong, the contract simply settles to $0.
Once a market resolves (usually within 30 minutes of the Oscar ceremony ending), the funds are credited to your Kalshi account. You can withdraw your balance directly to your bank account via ACH, wire transfer or debit card.
