As we approach the 98th Academy Awards this March, speculation as to who will be walking the red carpet is proving almost as volatile as the battle for Best Picture.
On the Kalshi Oscars prediction markets, traders are buying ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts on who will show up, a newly opened market that’s already seen massive swings in prices.
Key Takeaways:
- Margot Robbie currently offers the best risk-to-reward ratio for a likely attendee.
- Zendaya's attendance represents the most volatile coin flip opportunity for traders.
- Kylie Jenner is a low cost 'No' but don't forget partner Chalamet is poised for a clean sweep.
Prices are rising for Hollywood heavyweights, but there’s been considerable movement amongst influencers and musicians too.
Here’s the latest from the red carpet race, from Kylie Jenner’s staggering price to Taylor Swift’s current long-shot status.
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Who will attend the Oscars?
Kylie Jenner | 'Yes' 90¢
Kylie Jenner is currently the heaviest favorite on the board. Trading at 90¢, the market views her attendance as a near-lock. We’d happen to agree, considering her recent presence at high-profile awards and the fact that her partner, Timothée Chalamet, could well win his first Oscar on the night.
Hudson Williams | 'Yes' 72¢
Williams’ price has now risen over 70¢, signaling high confidence from traders that the rising actor will make his red carpet debut. Unless there’s a major press cycle disruption, we can expect that ‘Yes’ price to drift toward 80¢ as the ceremony draws closer.
Margot Robbie | 'Yes' 67¢
Margot Robbie is currently trading at just 67¢. Given her status as a perennial nominee and previous winner, this seems low. The 40¢ ‘No’ indicates some market skepticism, perhaps regarding filming schedules, but for traders looking for a solid entry, Robbie is good value at 67¢.
Zendaya | 'Yes' 66¢
At 66¢, the market is skeptical about Zendaya’s attendance. Her absence would be unusual, considering her status. She has attended regularly in recent years, but was absent last year due to filming commitments. If you think she’ll attend in March, this could be a great opportunity. It’s worth noting, though, that she and partner Tom Holland both skipped the Golden Globes this year.
Taylor Swift | 'Yes' 57¢
The market was unsure of a Swift appearance on opening, pricing her at just 20¢. Swift historically only attends the Oscars if she is nominated or supporting a partner. However, her price has since shot up past 50¢, and it's still rising. Taylor hasn’t got a nomination this year, so she’s a high risk ‘Yes’. However, if you think the Academy might persuade her for a ratings boost, she could be a good pick.
Red carpet picks: The latest movement
Three of the best value picks available now
Several A-listers are now priced as near locks to walk the red carpet in March. But the real potential in these markets lies nearer to the middle of the board. Look out for options where public perception might not be in line with reality. Here are three to consider right now.
Best Value Yes: Margot Robbie | ‘Yes’ 68¢
It is rare to get a 65% probability on a star of Robbie's caliber. Unless a specific conflict is announced, she is a high-probability attendee.
Best Value No: Kylie Jenner | ‘No’ 16¢
At 90¢, Jenner is priced for perfection. Any minor rumor of a skip will send the ‘No’ price soaring, and that’s what makes this a great strategic hedge.
The Wildcard: Zendaya | ‘Yes’ 66¢
This is the most active market for a reason. Taking the ‘Yes’ at this price is a bet on the Academy's need for star power.
Understanding Kalshi: How to Trade the Oscars
Unlike a traditional sportsbook where you bet against the house, Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that functions like a stock exchange. With Kalshi, you aren't just placing a wager, you’re trading event contracts with other people.
On Kalshi, every outcome is a Yes or No question (e.g., "Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress?").
- The Price is the Probability: Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢. If a Yes contract for Teyana Taylor is 72¢, the market believes she has a 72% chance of winning.
- The Payout: If your prediction is correct, every contract you own settles at $1.00. Your profit is the difference between the price you paid and $1.00.
- Trading in Real-Time: You don’t have to wait until Oscar night to collect. If you buy a contract at 30¢ and a major precursor win (like the Actor Awards) drives the price up to 70¢, you can sell your shares immediately to lock in a profit.
Oscars Prediction Market FAQs
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, making it one of the only fully legal platforms in the United States to trade on cultural and political events. Unlike offshore sportsbooks, your funds are held in regulated clearinghouses.
Buying a ‘No’ contract is essentially betting that an event won't happen. For example, if you buy a ‘No’ contract on a heavy favorite for 20¢ and they lose, your contract settles at $1.00, netting you an 80¢ profit per share. This is a popular strategy for hedging against overpriced favorites.
Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. When new information drops, like a BAFTA win or a viral red carpet rumor, traders rush to buy or sell, causing the price (and the implied probability) to shift instantly.
No. The maximum you can lose is the amount you paid for the contracts. There are no margin call or hidden debts. If your prediction is wrong, the contract simply settles to $0.
Once a market resolves (usually within 30 minutes of the Oscar ceremony ending), the funds are credited to your Kalshi account. You can withdraw your balance directly to your bank account via ACH, wire transfer or debit card.
