The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards have solidified a clear favorite in the Best Director category. Competition in some of the acting markets remains strong, but the ‘Yes’ price for Paul Thomas Anderson in this market suggests the director may have finally found the project that will secure his long-awaited first Oscar.
The price for a ‘Yes’ contract on Anderson has now surged to dominant levels, leaving industry veterans like Ryan Coogler and Chloé Zhao lagging far behind. But this is the Oscars, and nothing is ever certain until that envelope is opened.
Key Takeaways:
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the runaway favorite with an 85% implied probability.
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners) remains the main alternative, though he currently sits in strategic no territory.
- Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) is struggling to find market momentum despite her film’s success in other categories.
The next major market catalyst will be the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards on February 8. If Paul Thomas Anderson takes the main prize, his odds for the Oscar will rise even further. Historically, the DGA Award has been an almost perfect barometer, with only eight instances of the winner going on to miss out on the Academy Award.
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Best Director Market Movement: PTA Pulls Away
This category began the season as a three-way heat, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has now fully captured the momentum of the market.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘Yes’ price climbed to a high of 91¢ in the wake of the the Golden Globes. And while its since dropped to 85¢, it remains by far the most expensive ‘Yes’ in the market.
Traders appear to be banking on the overdue narrative, with many industry commentators suggesting that this could be the year that Paul Thomas Anderson gets the Oscar he’s waited so long for.
The price of a ‘Yes’ for Ryan Coogler has also been rising recently, though. Coogler currently sits at 13%. Its still far from the implied probability of a win for Paul Thomas Anderson, but market movement suggests that some believe Coogler could pull off an upset.
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | Chance 85%
Anderson’s 85¢ price tag indicates that traders see him as a near-lock. His recent win at the Golden Globes has only reinforced the idea that this will be the year that he finally takes the podium.
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | Chance 13%
Coogler is currently the most expensive hedge on the board. At 13¢, he represents excellent value for those betting on a last minute shift toward genre-bending filmmaking, though he will likely need a DGA win to move that price much higher.
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) | Chance 4%
Despite the massive success of Hamnet in the Best Actress and Screenplay categories, Zhao’s directorial price has remained fairly stagnant at around 4¢. Traders now appear to be splitting the film's success, and expecting awards for acting and writing rather than directing in this case.
The Path to the Podium: DGA and Beyond
If Paul Thomas Anderson is to maintain his 85¢ standing, he must navigate the final precursor events. Historically, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) winner has a nearly 90% correlation with the eventual Oscar winner, so this is the one to watch as we head towards this year’s Academy Awards. Here’s how things stand at the moment:
| Award Ceremony | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Globes | ✅ WON | Paul Thomas Anderson |
| DGA Awards | ⏳ Pending | Nominated |
| BAFTA | ⏳ Pending | Nominated |
| Academy Awards | ⏳ Pending | Nominated |
If Anderson triumphs at the DGA, we fully expect his Kalshi price to move toward 95¢, effectively ending the race before the Oscars even begin.
How Oscars Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house as you would at a sportsbook, you’re trading event contracts with others.
Each price represents a probability, so an 85¢ ‘Yes’ contract means the market believes there is an 85% chance of a win. To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, read our complete guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Is an 85% probability a lock for Paul Thomas Anderson? While 85% is a commanding lead, it is not a certainty. In prediction markets, locks are generally considered prices above 92¢. A surprise upset at the DGA Awards could still cause the price to drop 30-40¢ in a single evening.
Why is Chloé Zhao only at 4¢ if Hamnet is a Best Picture favorite? The Academy frequently splits the top honors. So, if the market believes Jessie Buckley is a lock for Best Actress and the film is a favorite for Screenplay, voters will often look to reward another film’s director in the director category.
What happens if there is a tie? The tie contract is currently trading at 1¢. While Oscar ties are incredibly rare (the last one in a major category was 2012 for Sound Editing), the market still allows traders to hedge against this statistical anomaly at a very low cost.
