Hollywood is gearing up for the biggest night on the calendar: the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, 15 March. And while the air might be thick with anticipation and talk of who’s wearing what, there could also be a certain silent dread on the minds of many.
Yes, you guessed it, we’re talking about the famous Oscar curse.
The Oscar curse has been feared for decades now, but is it a real phenomenon or just a statistical anomaly, amplified by the glare of the spotlight?
We spoke to PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt to get her thoughts on the existence of an awards season hex.
Key Takeaways:
- The Oscar curse is a perceived trend where a Best Picture win leads to a slump for its creators, as the pressure to top a masterpiece often results in a failing follow-up project.
- One Battle After Another is currently the runaway favorite on prediction markets like Kalshi. Having already secured major wins at the DGA and BAFTAs, PTA now faces the highest Oscar curse risk.
- Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic Sinners made history with a record-breaking 16 nominations, yet prediction markets give it only a 14% chance to win Best Picture. If it pulls off the upset, Coogler too could face the curse.
Let's dive into the data and see what this year's top contenders might be facing.
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What exactly is the Oscar Curse?
The Oscar Curse isn't a literal hex. It’s more of a perceived trend where Best Picture winners, or their directors and producers, struggle to replicate that same level of success with their next project.
The pressure to follow up a universally acclaimed, Academy Award-winning film is immense, often leading to subsequent projects that, while good, simply can't live up to expectations. In the past, this so-called curse has been said to manifest as:
- Box Office Disappointment: A highly anticipated follow-up that underperforms commercially.
- Critical Backlash: A film that receives significantly less positive reviews than its Oscar-winning predecessor.
- Creative Burnout: Directors or producers taking extended breaks or struggling to find their next passion project.
This Year’s Danger Zone: Who could be in the hot seat?
According to the latest Kalshi Oscars prediction markets, where almost 11 million dollars have already been traded on the outcome, the 2026 Best Picture race has a clear hierarchy. These filmmakers are currently the most at risk of the post-win spotlight.
One Battle After Another | Paul Thomas Anderson | 77% Chance
Paul Thomas Anderson’s $175 million political thriller is the runaway favorite as we race towards the 98th Academy Awards. After decades of being nominated but ultimately overlooked, PTA is finally on the verge of the big win. But with such high stakes and a massive budget, that could mean the pressure on his next project is astronomical.
Sinners | Ryan Coogler | 14% Chance
Ryan Coogler’s vampire blues musical has made history with a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations. Even if it doesn't take the top prize, its cultural impact is already so massive that Coogler’s follow-up is likely to be held to a nearly impossible standard.
Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | 6% Chance
Chloé Zhao has won before, for Nomadland, which suggests a possible immunity to the Oscar curse for this Director. Now, Hamnet has now emerged as the emotional contender of this awards season. A second Best Picture win in five years would cement Zhao in the history books, but could it also double the curse pressure for her next move?
Best Actor: Is Timothée Chalamet about to fall foul of the Oscar curse?
In the Best Actor race, the Oscar Curse is more of a momentum trap. As entertainment expert Lynn Carratt notes, winning every precursor can sometimes lead to a "nail-biting wait," where a late-season loss creates a deflated narrative right as Oscar ballots are due. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing with Marty Supreme and Timothée Chalamet right now.
Timothée Chalamet’s campaign had been viewed as a coronation, with talk turning to his chances of a clean sweep until the BAFTAs ended it all.
On February 22, Marty Supreme matched an all-time record by going 0-for-11. And prediction markets reacted immediately, leading to Chalamet’s ‘yes’ price tumbling by almost 10¢.
"The ‘curse’ can follow you across the Atlantic," says Carratt. "Expectations are raised with a precursor win, then deflated with a loss at the Academy Awards."
For Chalamet, the BAFTA miss could already be causing the kind of psychological shift that Carratt warns about.
If he loses the Oscar on March 15, he will join the ranks of Bill Murray (2004), who saw a "tidal wave of precursors" but ultimately lost out on the big night, a defeat that Carratt notes "shifted his perspective on awards entirely."
Expert Take: Lynn Carratt on the Oscar Curse
To understand why the industry remains so superstitious, we turned to commentator Lynn Carratt, who explained that the Oscar curse is often as much about the "fever pitch of awards season," as it is about the films themselves.
The BAFTAs are seen as a top precursor event for the Oscars, but they’re also watched by those looking for evidence of the Oscar curse at play.
“Winning a BAFTA is a thrilling moment of triumph,” says Carratt, “but for some stars it can also be the start of a nail-biting wait for the Oscars.”
“Many BAFTA winners have watched their Academy Award dreams slip away, giving rise to the notion that early recognition doesn’t always guarantee ultimate glory. In other words, the “curse” can follow you across the Atlantic: a big win a home, heartbreak abroad.”
Carratt told us that this year’s headline-grabbing BAFTA winners (One Battle After Another, Jessie Buckley) are the ones to watch as we look towards the Oscars, “but as pundits point out, a BAFTA win is no guarantee of Academy gold.”
“Sometimes the miss becomes part of the conversation itself,” says Carratt. “With Sinners nominated for more Oscars than BAFTAs, could that film dominate across the pond?”
There’s no shortage of evidence that can be used to argue that this curse is all too real. Take Bill Murray, for example.
“After a tidal wave of precursor awards, including a BAFTA, for Lost in Translation, he unexpectedly lost the Best Actor Oscar in 2004. He later reflected that the defeat shifted his perspective on awards entirely.”
“Stars like Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball) and Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) saw their careers veer into less acclaimed territory after their Oscars, starring in films that failed to resonate with critics or audiences—a commonly cited pattern in “Oscar curse” lists.”
However, for every follow-up that can be used to argue for the existence of an Oscar curse, there are several more than disprove it.
“History also shows that the narrative isn’t gospel,” says Carratt. “Many actors and filmmakers thrive after Oscar wins and some who miss out go on to high-profile careers anyway.”
Ultimately, the curse is a "neat shorthand for the drama" that follows these highly anticipated nights, says Carratt. It’s another reminder that in Hollywood, the higher the rise, the more scrutinized the fall.
Looking back on previous curse victims
It’s difficult to prove the existence or lack of an Oscar curse for definite, because of the subjective nature of this work. However, we can look at some notable Best Picture winners and assess how their immediate follow-up projects fared in terms of both critical reception and Box Office success.
The following table highlights films where the next major project from the director or lead producer arguably experienced a dip in critical reception or commercial success compared to their Oscar-winning triumph.
| Oscar-Winning Film (Year) | Director / Lead Producer | Next Major Project | Critical Reception (Compared to Oscar Winner) | Box Office (Compared to Oscar Winner) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocky (1977) | John G. Avildsen | Slow Dancing in the Big City (1978) | Mixed/Negative (Significant Dip) | Commercial Flop | Struggled to replicate Rocky's magic. |
| Dances with Wolves (1990) | Kevin Costner | The Postman (1997) | Largely Negative | Box Office Bomb | A notorious example of post-Oscar overreach. |
| Shakespeare in Love (1999) | Harvey Weinstein (Producer) | Various Miramax projects (often successful, but none matched cultural impact) | Varies, but no single unified follow-up. | Varies | More of a studio curse than individual, but hard to replicate cultural zeitgeist. |
| Crash (2004) | Paul Haggis | In the Valley of Elah (2007) | Mixed (More muted) | Underperformed | A solid film, but couldn't escape Crash's shadow. |
| The Artist (2011) | Michel Hazanavicius | The Search (2014) | Overwhelmingly Negative | Commercial Flop | A stark contrast to the charming success of The Artist. |
Many Oscar winners do go on to have hugely successful careers, though. For every project named as one of the possible victims of this curse, there are countless examples of filmmakers who continue to excel.
Realistically, the Oscar curse is less about failure and more about the immense and often unrealistic pressure that follows such a prestigious win.
So, as we watch the envelopes open on Oscar night, spare a thought for the winners. Their moment of glory might just be the beginning of their next great challenge: defying the Oscar Curse.
FAQs
The BAFTA spanner occurs when a performer who is not nominated for an Oscar wins the BAFTA (like Robert Aramayo’s shock win for I Swear). While it doesn't change who can physically win the Oscar, it destroys the invincibility narrative of the frontrunner. On Kalshi, this often triggers a sell-off for the favorite (e.g., Chalamet dropping from 78¢ to 68¢) as traders lose confidence in a clean sweep.
In prediction market terms, 90¢ represents a 90% implied probability. While it’s the closest thing to a lock, it isn't a guarantee. High prices like Paul Thomas Anderson’s 93¢ reflect a market coronation, but they also make ‘No’ contracts a cheap, high-reward hedge for contrarian traders betting on a historic upset.
Traders often use the Oscar curse narrative (the idea that the Academy avoids rewarding the same person too quickly or prefers overdue legends) to justify price shifts. This season, the curse is working for Paul Thomas Anderson (overdue after 11 losses) and against Leonardo DiCaprio, whose previous win makes his current 10¢ price a sentiment floor that is hard to break.
Prediction markets react to momentum rather than just total wins. Taylor is at 52¢ (the favorite), but Mosaku’s jump to 26¢ suggests a late-breaker narrative. Traders are buying Mosaku now because her ‘Yes’ shares are cheap. If she wins the upcoming Actor Awards, her price will likely skyrocket toward 50¢, allowing early buyers to sell for a profit before the Oscars even begin.
It depends on the liquidity trap. When a favorite like Jessie Buckley hits 91¢, the ‘Yes’ side has a very low return on investment (you risk 91¢ to make 9¢). Many experienced traders pivot to the ‘No’ side of the second-place challenger, or look for value dips in categories like Best Actor, where a frontrunner’s price has been artificially suppressed by a regional BAFTA upset.
