The 68th Annual Grammy Awards is edging ever closer, and all eyes are on a certain artist who we might soon be able to call the world’s most decorated rapper.
Kendrick Lamar enters the arena on the edge of a legacy-defining moment, with a staggering nine nominations following his recent dominance in the charts.
Looking at the latest probabilities on Grammys prediction markets like Kalshi, it appears almost certain that Kendrick will soon take the title from Jay-Z, who has 25 Grammys to his name. Having already won 22, Lamar now needs just four more awards to take the crown, and he’s a clear frontrunner in four of the categories he’s nominated in.
Key Takeaways:
- Kendrick Lamar needs four wins from nine nominations to surpass Jay-Z’s record of 25 Grammys.
- Prediction markets show high levels of confidence, with Lamar favored at 91% for Best Melodic Rap Performance.
- Industry experts David Hampian and Manny Faces analyze the cultural momentum driving a potentially historic night.
Recent movement on Kalshi shows that traders fully expect a coronation for Kendrick on February 1. Traders are pricing in a Kendrick sweep across several major categories. His implied probability of a win in Best Melodic Rap Performance now stands at 91%, and his chance of taking Best Rap Album is currently 75%.
We spoke exclusively with industry experts David Hampian and Manny Faces, author of “Hip Hop Can Save America!” to find out more about what’s made Kendrick such an unstoppable force this year, and whether they can see him dethroning Jay-Z at the Grammys.
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David Hampian on Kendrick Lamar and Raising the Bar
David Hampian was responsible for shaping and leading the marketing strategy for The Pop Out, in close collaboration with Amazon Music’s artist teams and pgLang.
The event marked Lamar’s first hometown performance of “Not Like Us” and became one of the most talked-about live moments of the year.
Hampian explained that while huge moments like The Pop Out may appear inevitable, there are still risks involved for artists like Kendrick Lamar.
“When an artist has a culture-defining moment as big as The Pop Out, the risk is in defining what's next. The bar is higher. How can they build on that moment, but with a new bag of tricks? But this is what fuels great artists and pushes culture forward.”
Turning a song into a cultural moment
The first live performance of “Not Like Us” instantly turned a diss track into a global cultural event. And Hampian told us that’s largely down to Kendrick’s abililty to read the cultural context of the moment.
“A song becomes a moment when an artist has a deep understanding of the cultural context. What's happening in the world? How are people feeling about it? How are they expressing it? Great artists are able to tap into that in ways most people just can't.”
Kendrick Lamar’s popularity has soared in recent years, with some suggesting that might actually make it even more difficult for new artists to break through on their own terms. But Hampian doesn’t believe this raising of the bar will prove detrimental to new talent in the long-run.
“Hip-hop is competitive, “ he explained. “An artist like Kendrick who raises the bar only inspires other artists to exceed those heights and push the culture forward even more.”
Huge talents like Kendrick Lamar stay at the top because they consistently push the boundaries, and as they do so they change they industry time and time again.
“Kendrick is able to push music forward because he's intentional. There is a really defined sense of identity in everything he does.”
”In the business world, we would call these brand values. To the audience, it looks like authenticity. He's not chasing his peers or the latest trend. He's staying on his own path. And if you have the talent to back it up, you'll end up leading the pack.”
Kendrick builds intrigue and hype through subtraction
One of the ways in which Lamar has set himself apart in recent years is through his tendency to disappear for long stretches of time without ever losing his audience. And that’s largely down to the trust he’s built up over the years.
“Content in general has become such a volume game. The higher your output, the faster you grow.”
”Artists like Kendrick are able to build intrigue and hype through subtraction - they leave for a bit and everyone gets spun up. It's due to the trust he's built with his audience. He's consistent. We know that when he drops, it's going to be legendary. Not everyone can do that.”
When an artist like Kendrick Lamar drops, people know it will matter. That trust is vital to the ongoing success of any artist, but it’s not something that’s easy to build and sustain in the long-term.
“Building trust is a lot harder than breaking it.” Hampian told us. “For artists, that relationship starts immediately. Everything you do is a cue to your audience. Do we believe this guy or no? While it can take years to truly solidify that trust, one move can wipe it all away overnight.”
Changes in definition of pop music pave the way for record-breaking night at the Grammys
Given recent movement in the odds, it looks highly likely that Kendrick Lamar will dethrone Jay-Z and take the title of most decorated rapper at the Grammys in February.
We spoke to David Hampian about the collection of trophies Kendrick has now amassed, and why he seems better placed to pick up the top awards than some of the most successful rappers of recent years.
“It's largely just due to his sheer talent and greatness. But another aspect is that the definition of pop music is increasingly broad. Rap is pop music. It's much less of a "second-class citizen" at award shows than how it was treated in the past.”
Kendrick now only needs four more Grammys to claim Jay-Z’s title. He’s the clear favorite in four categories, and with nine nominations to his name he could well smash that record on the night. But even if happens, Hampian feels it’d be a mistake to compare the two artists.
“Music is so moment-driven. Kendrick taps into what people feel right now, just like Jay-Z did when he was on top. Jordan vs. LeBron. You can't compare eras.”
Manny Faces: “When in doubt, I imagine many voters might say, just choose Kendrick.”
Manny Faces is an award-winning journalist, podcaster, and TEDx speaker who advocates for the power of Hip-Hop culture to improve lives and communities. He’s also the author of ‘Hip Hop Can Save America!’
Kendrick Lamar is fully deserving of all the awards he’s won, but he’s still something of a safe choice for the Grammys, argues Manny Faces. He’s an artist that’s “fairly universally recognized as highly talented” and “he represents the intelligently lyrical faction of the genre.”
“Any time he’s in the running for an award, he’s likely to be favored, and so one would imagine this makes it an easy call for voters who might be less familiar with Hip Hop music as a whole.”
The perception of Kenrick Lamar as a safe choice could well work in his favor. Manny Faces told us, “generally speaking, a vote for Kendrick is a safe enough vote that should he win that particular category, few would be able to criticize the outcome.”
What would it mean if Kendrick were to take Jay-Z’s title?
The ongoing success of Kendrick Lamar has led to many arguing that the the industry’s attitude toward hip-hop has shifted, but Manny told us that while “it’s hard to deny the impact of Kendrick albums “To Pimp a Butterfly” and “DAMN.” and songs like “Alright,” there were other worthy entrants during Kendrick’s GRAMMY run that just couldn’t break through.”
“I think it says more about the direction of the institution taking rap seriously to see who wins in the non-Kendrick years.”
”Seeing Nas win big, seeing Tyler win big, seeing Killer Mike win big, actually says good things about how the academy is able to recognize the depth of the genre in recent years,” Manny Faces explained.
When asked about his predictions for the upcoming awards, Manny said: “In my humble opinion, “Not Like Us” is an absolute lock for rap song/record of the year – maybe even the overall category choice. No other single song affected American culture like it in quite some time. Incredible feat.”
There are several other worthy winners amongst this year’s nominations, however. And whether they emerge triumphant on the night or not could be indicative of where the Academy currently stands regarding its voters’ attitudes to the genre.
As Manny Faces explains, “the fact that Kendrick likely remains favored to win rap album of the year and that a Clipse or Tyler the Creator win would be considered an upset, shows that the Academy overall still might be perfectly fine with the “safe choice.””
“After all, as with the GRAMMYs, a large part of the Hip Hop public doesn’t generally care (or pretends not to care about) “mainstream” acceptance or validation… But when it comes, most will at least give a headnod of approval, – throwing in an “About damn time!” of course.”
“In this case, this year, Clipse was able to say that. Being nominated shows some level of the academy “getting it.” A win, however, would suggest that maybe the Kendrick spell is able to be broken.”
