The 68th Annual Grammy Awards are rapidly approaching, and February 1 looks set to be a record-breaking night for the music industry.
According to the latest data from Grammys prediction markets, we could be about to witness a shift in the status quo, with artists like Kendrick Lamar and Bruno Mars poised to claim the records of the likes of Jay-Z and Lady Gaga.
Kendrick Lamar’s dominant year has made him the odds-on favorite to finally seize Jay-Z’s crown. And the Pop Duo/Group field is heading for a shakeup, with Bruno Mars now favorite to match Lady Gaga’s historic win streak in that category.
The new record most likely to hit headlines, though, is the surging probability of a breakthrough for K-pop. Anthem "Golden" now leads the charge, with traders betting that we’re about to see the first-ever Grammy win for a K-pop act, a milestone decades in the making.
Key Takeaways:
- The 68th Grammys could deliver the first-ever win for a K-pop act, a historic milestone for the genre.
- Bruno Mars is positioned to challenge Lady Gaga’s dominance in the Best Pop Duo/Group category.
- Kelsey Barnes and Alexander McCloy give their expert anlaysis on the records we could see broken this year.
We spoke exclusively with industry experts Kelsey Barnes, digital editor at Schön! Magazine and contributor for grammy.com, and Alexander McCloy, previously Digital Transformation Director at Sony Music, to get their insight into whether this could be a new era in Grammy history.
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HUNTR/X favorite to win the first ever K-pop Grammy
Netflix hit KPop Demon Hunters has already made its mark on the streaming charts. Now, its fictional group, HUNTR/X, is the frontrunner to secure a historic first Grammy win for the K-pop genre.
The film’s viral anthem, "Golden," has seen its win probability on Kalshi surge to a dominant 68% following victory at the Golden Globes. Icons like BTS and Rosé broke ground with previous nominations, but a win in a traditional category has remained elusive. Could this be the year that K-pop finally gets its big moment?
Kelsey Barnes told us that a win for HUNTR/X would be “both symbolic and transformative.”
“Despite K-pop’s large, monolithic impact on music and the industry as a whole, the Grammys have yet to properly acknowledge that. A Grammy would show that the genre is not just a niche or a trend, but part of the mainstream. Also, HUNTR/X winning would recognize Korean artists as equals to other artists in creativity, artistry, and influence.”
K-pop has previously been framed as more of a trend than a tradition, but Barnes says that framing risks “overlooking important aspects, even if the groups are put together by a label or larger organization.”
“K-pop stems from decades of Korean music evolution, and the groups that fall under the K-pop label are trained to be meticulous performers, singers, dancers, and more. Their lyrics, visuals and ideas tend to reflect Korean culture, providing a window into their world.”
”Framing K-pop as fleeting, trendy entertainment undermines its complexity, skill, and cultural significance,” argues Barnes.
Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS could take first Spanish-language album win
Bad Bunny’s Spanish-language album “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” has already made history. **Its the first one to have been nominated across Album, Record, and Song of the Year simultaneously, for an exclusively Spanish-language project.
The latest odds on Kalshi show Bad Bunny could well take the best album title very soon. The album currently has an implied probability of 61%, and that’s risen steadily in recent weeks indicating rising levels of confidence amongst traders.
If Bad Bunny is successful, it would indicate a significant change in the Academy's recognition of global superstars. Barnes told us “Pop is no longer exclusively defined by English-language releases from North America and beyond.”
“If anything, a Bad Bunny win represents what music is and what it has always been: about communicating through sound over words. Music can find its audience beyond geographical and language barriers.
“Fans can engage with the beats and mood rather than needing to literally understand them, similarly to K-pop. A win like this would prove that pop is global, something that the history of music has reflected for years, with or without the awards.”
Language doesn’t have to be a barrier in music, as the prevailing success of artists like Bad Bunny has shown.
“Bad Bunny taps into universal themes that he expresses easily through rhythm, energy, and emotion rather than explaining himself by singing in English. Much like K-pop, listeners don’t necessarily need to understand what he’s saying to feel the emotion behind what he’s singing about,” said Barnes.
Olivia Dean poised to become fourth British female to win Best New Artist
Rising soul star Olivia Dean is now favored to become the fourth British female solo artist to secure the Best New Artist trophy.
A win for Olivia Dean would see her join an elite group of UK icons. She’d be following in the footsteps of Amy Winehouse (2008), Adele (2009) and Dua Lipa (2019).
Market sentiment has shifted dramatically in Dean’s favor recently. She pulled ahead of Leon Thomas in November, and her win probability has since surged to 70% on Kalshi.
Alexander McCloy can see Olivia Dean taking her place amongst industry greats very soon. “In the past we’ve talked about Artistic DNA, Adele has it, Dua Lipa has it, and Olivia has it too,” said McCloy.
”The difference is that we’re are not waiting for Radio One to break the artist, but building the foundations across multiple channels in the home market to build the ‘fever' that will cut through in the US.”
McCloy explained that it’s Dean’s authenticity that’ll most appeal to voters. “Listen to Dean’s The Art of Loving, you can hear the studio sound, the breaths from Dean, the soul arrangements, this is an authentic artist with vision, and talent realising it in the most authentic way possible. Exactly what voters are tuned into right now.”
Olivia Dean has risen to superstardom in the UK, but breaking through internationally is never an easy feat. As McCloy explains, “Audiences are global, but having a streaming audience on Spotify doesn’t guarantee global recognition. Olivia’s slot opening for Sabrina Carpenter was the perfect play for international positioning, converting UK industry hype into strong US awareness.”
Kelsey Barnes told us that its Dean’s refusal to be defined by a specific sound that has been key to her success. Describing Dean’s music as “genre-fluid,” Barnes told us that today’s “artists are no longer stuck in one box.” Now, top artists “move and dip freely between genres.”
“It speaks to artists like Taylor Swift, who has mixed country, pop, rock and even trap across her discography, and the taste of listeners who want artists to evolve with every release. Sometimes that means exploring a genre outside of what people expect,” said Barnes.
Bruno Mars expected to match Lady Gaga’s Best Pop/Duo Group record
Bruno Mars is on the verge of matching one of pop’s most legendary win streaks. Lady Gaga currently holds the solo lead with three trophies in this category (for "Shallow," "Rain on Me," and "Die With a Smile") but Mars is close behind with two wins to his name.
A victory for global phenomenon "APT." by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars would see Mars match Lady Gaga’s record, and traders on Kalshi have made him a heavy favorite in the run-up to the awards.
Kelsey Barnes told us that Mars’ consistency could be the key to his success. “There is a sense of consistency in Bruno Mars’ music, which provides comfort to people,” explained Barnes.
“He’s been on the radio since 2009 and has had consistent success with radio hits across decades, so in uncertain times — social, political, economic — people gravitate toward music that feels stable and predictable.”
”He might not change or morph into a different artist with every release, but that’s comforting to his listeners. He’s familiar and easily digestible to listen to.”
