Update: Update: The 68th Grammy Awards took place in Los Angeles on Feburary 1. Kendrick Lamar was the biggest winner of the night, taking home five awards. We also saw the first ever Grammy for K-pop, Olivia Dean took best new artist and Bad Bunny got the first ever Grammy for a Spanish-language album.
The stars are out, and things are looking ‘Golden’ ahead of the 2026 Grammy Awards.
We have reviewed the Kalshi Grammy Awards prediction markets to highlight the biggest and most important markets to watch ahead of Sunday’s annual showcase.
Will the K-Pop sensation Demon Hunters take home Song of the Year? How many Grammys will Lady Gaga walk away with?
Let’s dive into the latest 2026 Grammy Awards prediction markets.
2026 Grammy Awards Prediction Markets
Grammy Awards Prediction Markets: Grammy Award for Song Of The Year
Winner: Billie Eilish (Wildflower)
One of the highest profile markets, and maybe one of the most hotly contested Grammy Award prediction markets.
HUNTR/X from Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters leads the market right now with ‘Golden’. If they were to win be the fourth ‘fictional’ band to win, and it would mark the 12th time a song written specifically for a movie won one of the top four awards at the Grammys.
Borderline perennials, Kendrick Lamar (luther), Bad Bunny (DtMF), and Billie Eilish (Wildflower) also feature prominently in the Grammy Award for Song Of The Year prediction market.
One sleeper to watch in this market: APT. by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars — it’s currently trading at 2 cents, well behind the favorite 'Golden' at 69%. That’s a long price for a track that was the first fastest K-Pop track to reach 1 billion streams on Spotify and claim the spot of top song on Apple Music in 2025.
Is 'Golden' dominating the betting markets too? Find out with the Covers.com Grammy Awards odds for 2026
Grammy Awards Prediction Markets: Grammy Award for Best New Artist
Winner: Olivia Dean
The second biggest market by volume on Kalshi, the Best New Artist Grammy is more cut and dry than the Best Song Grammy market.
Olivia Dean is dominating, with a 72% chance of taking home her first Grammy award.
Addison Rae is a big name to watch with potential sleeper-energy, available at 5 cents. She may be the sleeper here, though her dual careers of acting and music won’t likely sway Recording Academy voters.
Grammy Awards Prediction Markets: Grammy Award for Album Of The Year
Winner: Bad Bunny (DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS)
Trading at 71 cents, a win here would be Kendrick’s 23rd Grammy all-time, but his first win in the Album of the Year category.
Meanwhile, Puerto Rican superstar rapper — and occasional WWE star — Bad Bunny received just his second career Album of the Year nomination.
Grammy Awards Prediction Markets: Who will perform at the 68th Grammy Awards?
Grammy Awards prediction markets stand out because, honestly, almost every option listed could cash if the artist performs on Sunday.
This makes them one of the more unusual types of prediction markets: they aren’t strictly outcome-versus-outcome. For example, the market for who will perform at the 68th Grammys is essentially a long list of yes/no options for each potential artist.
There’s a real chance we’ll see a dozen or more of these artists on stage — after all, the Grammys are known for their numerous musical interludes. In 2020, there were 22 performances during the broadcast. That number has dropped in recent years, topping out at 12 across the last three ceremonies, but that still leaves plenty of slots to fill.
We see value in Kendrick Lamar, but watch out for other names getting added to the market, including Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars/ROSÉ, and Post Malone, all of whom were flagged up in analysis as logical contenders missing from the current prediction markets. There’s also a good chance we’ll see a ‘legacy’ act like The Cure, or even Fleetwood Mac, with the 50th anniversary of their seminal album Rumours coming up.
The Record-Breakers: Who Will Rewrite Grammy History in 2026?
The 68th Grammy Awards could well be a historic night of firsts, with many of the world’s favorite performers poised to rewrite the record books over the course of the evening.
Prediction markets indicate that a number of long-standing records are expected to fall on February 1, from Lady Gaga’s Best Pop/Duo Group title to Jay-Z’s rap record, as heavyweights like Kendrick Lamar and Bruno Mars take the titles. We could even see the first-ever win for a K-pop act in what’s set to be a 'Golden' night for music.
HUNTR/X to win the first-ever Grammy for K-pop
Outcome: Correct ✅
Fictional K-pop group HUNTR/X from the Netflix hit KPop Demon Hunters could become the first-ever K-pop act to win a Grammy this year.
The film’s anthem, 'Golden,' has become a viral juggernaut. It’s now holding a dominant 69% win probability on Kalshi, following a significant rise after the song’s success at the Golden Globes.
Titans like BTS and Rosé may have paved the way with past nominations, but neither of these acts has yet been able to secure a win in a traditional music category. Does HUNTR/X have what it takes?
Kendrick Lamar to become the most decorated rapper
Outcome: Correct ✅
Kendrick Lamar is going in with nine nominations, the most of any artist this year. That puts him on a direct path to becoming the most decorated rapper in Grammy history.
Currently, this record is held by Jay-Z, with 25 wins. But Kendrick’s now sitting at 22, so he only needs four more to take the title.
Kendrick is currently leading the odds by a long way in categories including Best Rap Album, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Record of the Year, and Best Rap Performance. That means he’s well-positioned to solidify his status as the most-awarded hip-hop artist next month.
First Spanish-language album win for Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Outcome: Correct ✅
Bad Bunny has already made history with his album Debí Tirar Más Fotos. He’s the first artist to have been nominated across Album, Record, and Song of the Year simultaneously, with an exclusively Spanish-language project.
If Bad Bunny is successful, it’d be the first time a non-English album has ever won the night's top prize, and that’d indicate a real shift in the Academy's recognition of global superstars.
Olivia Dean to become the fourth British female to win Best New Artist
Outcome: Correct ✅
Rising soul star Olivia Dean is widely expected to become the fourth British female artist to win Best New Artist. If it happens, she’ll be following in the footsteps of music legends like Amy Winehouse (2008), Adele (2009), and Dua Lipa (2019).
Dean started to pull ahead of her closest competitor, Leon Thomas, last November. She now has a 72% chance of winning.
In November, a ‘Yes’ for Leon Thomas was trading at 73¢ on Kalshi. His price has since fallen to 17¢.
Bruno Mars to equal Lady Gaga’s Best Pop/Duo Group record
Outcome: Correct ✅
The battle for the most wins in the Best Pop Duo/Group Performance category is heating up, as Bruno Mars looks increasingly likely to take the crown from one of pop's biggest icons.
Lady Gaga currently holds the record with three wins (for 'Shallow', 'Rain on Me' and 'Die with a Smile'), but a victory for the global smash 'APT.' by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars would bring Mars’ total up to three (his previous wins include 'Uptown Funk' and 'Die With a Smile,' with Gaga).
