Both the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs come into this weekend’s matchup with big wins on their Big 12 resumes. The Wildcats took down Oklahoma as massive 28-point underdogs two weeks ago, while the Horned Frogs are coming off an upset of Texas in a game where they were getting 11 points.
Oddsmakers are more impressed with TCU at this point, installing them as 9.5-point favorites for this Big 12 battle. Check out our best NCAA football picks and predictions for Kansas State vs. TCU, with kickoff scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 10.
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful day for football in Fort Worth. The forecast is calling for clear skies, minimal wind and temperatures in the mid-80s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Kansas State: Joshua Youngblood WR (Probable), Skylar Thompson QB (Questionable), Cooper Beebe OL (Questionable), Kiondre Thomas DB (Questionable), Lance Robinson DB (Questionable), Wykeen Gill WR (Out).
TCU: Emari Demercado RB (Questionable), Marcel Brooks LB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
These Big 12 rivals are known for playing tight matchups. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the Under is 4-0 in the last four. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Kansas State vs. TCU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
With each of these teams securing big wins already this season, this game could have important implications when it comes to the Big 12 standings and a potential trip to the conference title game.
Kansas State followed up the win over the Sooners with a slight upset over Texas Tech last week, and QB Skylar Thompson is looking more and more comfortable each week. The senior is completing 63 percent of his passes for 626 yards and four touchdowns with no picks, while adding another three scores on the ground.
But Kansas State needs to remain balanced to be a threat, and they get that with RB Deuce Vaughn, as the freshman is averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season.
On the other side, Max Duggan might be the most underrated QB in the Big 12 this season. The Horned Frogs sink or swim with Duggan (who is also the team’s leading rusher), but he has some excellent weapons at his disposal in Taye Barber, Quentin Johnson and Blair Conwright.
But with TCU already suffering a conference loss to Iowa State, this game has even more significance. That puts added pressure on the Horned Frogs to not suffer another conference defeat, but you know the Wildcats will put up a feisty effort. TCU is a little more talented and is at home, so I think they win, but covering 9.5 points is asking a lot.
PREDICTION: Kansas State +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
As mentioned, these two love playing tight games, resulting in the Under cashing in four consecutive meetings and it won’t be a shock if it happens once again. Both the Wildcats’ and the Horned Frogs’ respective defenses are better than the numbers indicate at this point in the season, so the stats should be taken with a grain of salt.
Kansas State’s defensive numbers certainly won’t jump off the page, but it has already forced seven turnovers this season, while TCU has struggled on defense early but has played two of the top teams in the conference and was arguably the best defensive unit in the Big 12 last season.
Additionally, K-State will want to put an emphasis on running the football in an effort to shorten the game, as the Wildcats know they won’t be able to keep up in a track meet.
That means a heavy dose of Vaughn & Co., but TCU is no slouch in the time of possession game, averaging 35 minutes of ball possession so far this season. This one should sneak Under.
PREDICTION: Under 50.5 (-110)
First-Half Moneyline Pick
Kansas State got off to a hot start against Texas Tech last week, going up 14-0 before the half and the Wildcats are giving us some great value to hold the lead at halftime once again.
While we expect the TCU defense to improve as the season moves along, they are still allowing 7.2 yards per play right now, which ranks third-worst in the country. With the pressure on the home team to not drop another conference game, and K-State’s emphasis on draining the clock as quickly as possible, don’t be shocked if the Wildcats enter the half with a lead.
PREDICTION: First half Kansas State ML (+230)
Kansas State vs TCU betting card
- Kansas State +9.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
- First half Kansas State ML (+230)
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