The Hamilton Tiger-Cats take on the Ottawa Redblacks in Week 8 of CFL action on Friday night. These teams faced off three weeks ago with Hamilton winning at home, however, rookie quarterback Dustin Crum made his debut in that contest and has since led the Redblacks to consecutive upset wins.
That has made a believer out of oddsmakers with CFL betting lines opening with the Redblacks as 4.5-point favorites for this East Division showdown. Can the Ticats prevail again, or will Crum's magic continue, I let you know with my best Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks CFL picks and predictions for July 28.
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks picks and predictions
Don't look now, but the Ottawa Redblacks are coming off back-to-back overtime victories against the Blue Bombers and Stampeders and have the hottest young quarterback in the league. So it might seem strange that I'm fading them at home against the extremely disappointing Hamilton Tiger-Cats that have questions at QB — but let me explain why.
The first thing I'll say is that Hamilton's 21-13 win against Ottawa in Week 5 isn't a huge factor in this play. The Ticats had the now-injured Matthew Shiltz under center in that contest while Dustin Crum was forced into action after Jeremiah Masoli ruptured his Achilles tendon late in the second quarter.
Crum threw for 149 yards while adding another 91 on the ground after coming on in relief, but he also threw a pair of picks and he's looked like a better passer since actually preparing as Ottawa's starter over the last few weeks.
Crum is a dynamic QB with a bright future but he still has a mediocre offensive line and few weapons surrounding him. In addition, Hamilton defensive coordinator Mark Washington should be able to better gameplan for Crum since he faced him already and has additional film on the rookie.
The biggest reason I don't like the Redblacks in this contest is that they are on just four days of rest after playing in overtime in Calgary Sunday night. While they won their last two games, they were getting dominated by the Bombers until the end of the fourth quarter and also surrendered 480 yards to the Stamps.
The Redblacks also get the customary boost on the spread at home but haven't benefitted from home-field advantage in recent years. There's been plenty of publicity about the Elks having the longest home losing streak in North American pro sports history, but the Redblacks haven't been much better. They have won their last two games at home but lost 24 of their previous 26 contests at TD Place while going 5-21 ATS during that span.
With large stadiums and modest crowds, there really isn't a huge home-field advantage for many home teams in the CFL. Travel time is really the biggest edge to playing at home in the CFL and with the Tiger-Cats making the short trip to Ottawa, it's a relatively negligible difference.
The Ticats haven't looked impressive this year but they still have some talented pieces and I'll take them with the points against a Redblacks side in a letdown spot.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats +4.5 (-115 at Betway)
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks same-game parlay
Tiger-Cats +3.5
Under 48.5
Crum Over 231.5 passing yards
With this total sitting at a relatively high 48.5, I'm selling on an Ottawa offense that isn't quite as explosive as the late two weeks would indicate. It also doesn't help the Over that the Ticats will either have dink-and-dunk rookie Taylor Powell or offseason disappointment Bo Levi Mitchell under center.
I'm expecting the Ticats defense to focus on keeping Crum in the pocket. However, Crum has also thrown for more than 250 yards in each of the last two games and should be able to go Over his low passing yards total against a Hamilton secondary that allows 292.3 passing yards per game.
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Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Redblacks at -4.5 but has been bet down to -3.5 at most books, although Betway is still dealing -4.5 at -105.
Ottawa is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games while Hamilton is 2-1 SU and ATS in its previous three. While the Redblacks turned to Crum after injuries to Masoli and Tyrie Adams, the Ticats were also forced to scour their depth chart for last week's rookie starter Taylor Powell.
However, Bo Levi Mitchell has been activated from the 6-game IL and is expected to start on Friday. Mitchell's play has declined over the last few years and he had fewer than 200 passing yards while throwing a pair of picks in each of Hamilton's first two contests this season.
That said, the former two-time MOP winner has a proven track record and faces a Redblacks defense that ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (311.3) and yards allowed per pass attempt (10.3).
The total opened at 49 and has seen minimal movement. The Redblacks were an Under machine earlier this season when they relied on a stout defense and couldn't score points due to mediocre QB play.
However, since Crum took over, they have dropped 30+ points in back-to-back games while their defense regressed. That defense should get a boost though with defensive back Cariel Brooks and linebacker Jovan Santos-Knox set to return after missing significant time with injuries.
The Ticats have allowed a league-worst 30.8 points per game but they held the Redblacks to just 13 points in that previous meeting.
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Ottawa. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks.
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks game info
| Location: | TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Friday, July 28, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Joe Figueroa LT (Out), Chris Van Zeyl OT (Out), Mason Bennett DE (Out), Matthew Shiltz QB (Out).
Redblacks: DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out), Money Hunter DB (Out), Tyrie Adams QB (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Tevaun Smith WR (Out), Jackson Bennett RB (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
