The Toronto Argonauts host the Calgary Stampeders in Week 12 of CFL action on Friday night. The Argos are coming off a bye and are hungry for revenge after the Stamps handed them their only defeat of the year three weeks ago in Calgary.
CFL odds expect the Argonauts to prevail in the rematch with Toronto installed as a 9.5-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 51.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Argos-Stamps on Friday, August 25.
Stampeders vs Argonauts best odds
Stampeders vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The Argos are fresh off a bye after hammering the Redblacks 44-31 in Week 10. They were upset 20-7 by the Stampeders in the previous week, which was their first straight-up or against-the-spread loss since their meaningless regular-season finale in 2022.
Interestingly, the Stampeders were 10-point home underdogs in that contest and are fetching a shorter spread on the road just three weeks later.
The primary reason Toronto's offense struggled in that contest was because quarterback — and Most Outstanding Player favorite — Chad Kelly was forced to leave the game with an ankle injury early in the second quarter after throwing for 94 yards and a score. His replacement, Cameron Dukes, completed just 8 of 15 passes for 63 yards and an interception.
Calgary's running backs also combined to rush for 152 yards on 30 carries en route to the surprise victory. But given the Argos allow the second-fewest yards per carry (4.1) in the CFL, expect some regression in that area.
Calgary QB Jake Maier managed just 149 passing yards in that contest but also had only two incompletions and didn't throw a single pick. However, Maier has struggled with accuracy all year and has thrown the most interceptions (12) in the league, so it's likely he will revert to his turnover-prone ways against an Argos D that has picked off 14 passes.
With an offense that averages just 5.79 yards per play and a special teams unit that has struggled on coverage, the Stamps are 3-7 with an average scoring margin of -3.8 points per game.
Meanwhile, Toronto easily leads the CFL with 7.48 yards per play, boasts a league-best +12 turnover ratio, and has an average scoring margin of +11.6 ppg. That loss to the Stamps was the Argos' only hiccup all season and with Kelly back under center on Friday, expect them to cover the spread in a revenge spot.
My best bet: Argonauts -9.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Stampeders vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Toronto as a 9.5-point favorite and that spread has grown to -10.5 at most books as of Thursday morning. The total has seen marginal movement, shifting from 50.5 to 51.
The Argos are 7-1 SU and ATS with an incredible six of those wins coming by double digits. The Boatmen have been led by Kelly and an explosive offense that averages 33.5 ppg. Although the Argos defense carried them to the Grey Cup last year, they seem to have taken a small step back in that area, resulting in some high-scoring shootouts.
It's been a rough season for the Stampeders, who are 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. That said, they are coming off a very competitive 19-18 home loss to the Blue Bombers.
Their defense played well in that contest and has generally been solid all season. However, their turnover-prone offense and poor kick coverage teams have given opponents excellent field position.
Stampeders vs Argonauts trend to know
The Argonauts are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home while also going 5-0 ATS in their previous five contests following a bye week Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Argonauts.
Stampeders vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, August 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Argonauts key injuries
Stampeders: Bryce Bell OT (Out), Ka'Deem Carey RB (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out), Hugh Thornton OT (Out), James Vaughters DE (Out).
Argonauts: Dylan Giffen G (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
