Week 1 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday night with the Saskatchewan Roughriders facing off against the Edmonton Elks. These were the two worst teams in the West Division last year and they transformed their rosters in the offseason.
The Riders have a new-look offense led by Trevor Harris while the Elks should have more continuity in Chris Jones' second year as head coach. CFL betting odds opened with the Riders as 2.5-point favourites but the line has swung and the Elks are now 2.5-point chalk.
Here are my best free CFL picks for Roughriders vs. Elks for Sunday, June 11.
Roughriders vs Elks best odds
Roughriders vs Elks picks and predictions
The spread has swung five points since opening and the best betting value lies in going against the line movement at this stage of the week.
While both teams struggled last season, the Riders actually started the season strong thanks to an excellent ground game and a ferocious pass rush. However, injuries to running backs Jamal Morrow and Frankie Hickson, and breakout defensive linemen Pete Robertson and Anthony Laniers sapped those positions down the stretch. With all four of those players entering this season at full strength I'm expecting those positions to be strengths once again.
Saskatchewan's biggest weakness last season was its passing attack but the entire receiving corps has been overhauled and Harris has been brought in to replace Cody Fajardo. On paper, the WR group doesn't look any better but Harris is a better pure passer than Fajardo and should be an upgrade under center.
Both Saskatchewan and Edmonton's offensive lines struggled last year and despite making changes, pass blocking should still be an issue especially early in the year. However, Saskatchewan's superior pass rush is far better equipped to exploit that weakness.
It's also worth noting that Edmonton hasn't benefitted from home-field advantage in recent years. That might be partially due to the feel of the Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium which is open-air and has a track running around the field creating a gap between the fans and reducing the effect of crowd noise. The Elks have gone just 0-16 straight up and 3-13 against the spread at home since the start of the 2021 season.
My best bet: Roughriders +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Roughriders vs Elks same-game parlay
Roughriders +2.5 (-110)
TD scorer Taylor Cornelius (+150)
Jake Wieneke Over 39.5 rec yds (-110)
Edmonton quarterback Taylor Cornelius rushed for 502 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games last year. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound QB is unstoppable in short-yardage situations and should get more goal-line chances now that Edmonton's offense has improved.
Harris isn't the runner that Cornelius is but he's more experienced and accurate. He could struggle to build chemistry with his new receivers early in the season but he'll already be on the same page as Wieneke who he played with in Montreal.
The 28-year-old Wieneke had a down year last season but was an All-Star in 2021 and should get plenty of targets in Week 1 with several Saskatchewan wideouts on the IL.
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Roughriders vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
Money has poured in on the now-favored Elks who are expected to be much better in year 2 under Jones (his second go-around with the franchise). The Elks might have lost seven of their final eight games (going 3-5 ATS during that stretch) but Jones was constantly experimenting with different lineups and several key starters were injured on both sides of the ball.
There should be more continuity in terms of personnel this season and upgrades have been made across the board. Cornelius is still the No. 1 quarterback and while he was inconsistent last year he should be more polished this season. He also has a much better group of weapons surrounding him after the Elks added 2022 East Division MOP Geno Lewis along with Steven Dunbar and Kyran Moore to their receiver corps.
The Riders were competitive at the start of last season but floundered down the stretch losing their last seven games and going 0-6 ATS in their final six contests. Fajardo was unable to attack downfield due to underachieving group of receivers and a terrible offensive line.
The O/U opened at 44.5 before ticking up to 45.5 which might seem a bit low when you consider that Edmonton's final 14 games had totals between 48 and 53.5. In fact, these teams played three games against each other in 2022 and two of those contests had a total of 48.5 while the final clash closed at 49.5.
However, both defenses should be improved this season while the offenses might take time to gel with so many changes on the offensive line and at receiver.
The Elks had the worst stop unit in the league last season but should be better now that they're healthier, have more chemistry, and added veterans A.C. Leonard and Louchiez Purefoy. Likewise, Saskatchewan's stout defense was decimated by injuries in the final two months and had some rough games.
Roughriders vs Elks trend to know
The Roughriders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Edmonton. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Elks.
Roughriders vs Elks game info
| Location: | Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, Alberta |
| Date: | Sunday, June 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Roughriders vs Elks key injuries
Roughriders: Kian Schaffer-Baker WR (Out), Godfrey Onyeka DB (Out), Brayden Lenius WR (Out), Philip Blake OL (Out), Derrick Moncrief LB (Out).
Elks: Aaron Grymes DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
