Redblacks vs Lions Week 17 Picks and Predictions: Keeping Things Close on the West Coast

The Lions have already secured a playoff berth and are surely the better side in their Week 5 matchup with Ottawa, but will they be able to handle the 7.5-point spread? Our CFL betting picks and predictions suggest not — we break it all down below.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022 4:49 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Ottawa Redblacks head to Vancouver to face off against the BC Lions in Week 17 of CFL action on Friday night.

The Lions have already clinched a playoff berth and will try to head into the postseason with some momentum while the Redblacks will simply look to avoid finishing at the bottom of the league standings for the third season in a row.

CFL betting lines opened with the Lions as 8.5-point home favourites but that number has since slimmed to -7 at most books. Here are my best free Redblacks vs. Lions CFL picks and predictions.

Redblacks vs Lions best odds

Redblacks vs Lions picks and predictions

We've seen a lot of close games in the CFL this season and it's fair to say that the league has a decent amount of parity at the moment.

Despite the Redblacks having the league's worst record, they've lost by more than a touchdown just four times all year and now they face a Lions side that hasn't been quite the same since losing superstar quarterback Nathan Rourke to a season-ending injury. 

Sure, Vernon Adams Jr. is about as good of a replacement as you can get at this point in the year but integrating a new quarterback midseason is always tough. I don't trust him enough to spot Ottawa this many points, especially at BC Place where the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their previous five games. 

Meanwhile, the Redblacks have covered the spread in their last four games on the road and have been more consistent on offense since naming Nick Arbuckle as their starting QB.

It's never easy for an East Division team to start a game on the West Coast at 7:30 p.m. (10:30 p.m. ET) but I'll take the Redblacks with the points which you can still get at above that key number of 7.

My best bet: Redblacks +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Redblacks vs Lions spread analysis

The Lions have already secured a postseason spot with a 9-4 record but have lost three of four games since losing Rourke. That said, two of those losses came with Antonio Pipkin under center and the Lions upset the Stampeders 31-29 in Week 15 with Adams impressing in his first start with BC.

The Lions' offense came crashing back to earth last week in a 25-11 rematch loss to the Stamps. Adams faced constant pressure in that contest and completed just 12 of 24 passes for 151 yards before Pipkin took over in the fourth quarter for a garbage-time touchdown.  

The Redblacks also looked awful last week, with the Argonauts blowing them out by 30 points, dropping their record to a league-worst 3-10. Arbuckle had his worst performance since taking over the starting job and threw two picks before being replaced by Caleb Evans who threw three more interceptions. 

That said, Ottawa has been better offensively with Arbuckle under center and even in last week's loss, he and Evans combined for 368 yards through the air.

Although the Redblacks rank dead last in the league with just 20.3 points per game, they rank fourth in net offense and need to cut down on turnovers and be more efficient in the red zone. 

Redblacks vs Lions Over/Under analysis

The Lions really miss Rourke, who was on pace to run away with the Most Outstanding Player Award, but they still have the best group of wide receivers in the CFL led by Bryan Burnham, Dominique Rhymes, and Lucky Whitehead.

Adams was shut down last Saturday but he completed 78.1% of his passes for 294 yards the previous week and should have success against an Ottawa defense that ranks second last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.2) and opponent pass efficiency rating (102.1).

The Leos' defense has taken a step back in recent weeks and their inability to stop the run (league-worst 5.3 yards per carry allowed) has been exposed now that they haven't been playing with early leads.

Redblacks vs Lions trend to know

The Redblacks are 14-5 to the Under in their last 19 games overall while going 7-2 to the Under in their previous nine contests on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Lions.

Redblacks vs Lions game info

Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Date: Friday, September 30, 2022
Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Redblacks vs Lions key injuries

Redblacks: Sherrod Baltimore DB (Questionable), Darius Ciraco C (Questionable), Nate Behar WR (Questionable), Ucambre Williams OT (Questionable), William Powell RB (Questionable), Adam Auclair LB (Questionable), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Kwaku Boateng DE (Out), Justin Howell DB (Out).
Lions: Obum Gwacham DE (Questionable),  Sione Teuhema DL (Questionable), David Mackie FB (Questionable), Delvin Breaux Sr. DB (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out), Nathan Rourke QB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Redblacks vs Lions weather

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