The 2023 CFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the Calgary Stampeders hosting the BC Lions at McMahon Stadium. These teams clashed in the Division Semi-Finals last year and are expected to be playoff teams again, with the O/U for regular season wins for both clubs set at 9.5.
CFL betting lines opened with the Stamps as three-point home favorites, with the total set at 46.5 before ticking up to 47. Here are my best free Lions vs. Stampeders CFL picks and predictions for June 8.
Lions vs Stampeders best odds
Lions vs Stampeders picks and predictions
The Over is usually a betting trap in the first few weeks of the CFL regular season, but with the continuity these teams have on offense and the losses they have on defense, I'm expecting plenty of points in this one.
The Lions lost last year's superstar quarterback Nathan Rourke to the NFL, but Vernon Adams Jr. flashed when Rourke was injured last year and will be even better now that he's had a full training camp with BC and has developed chemistry with standout receivers Lucky Whitehead and Dominique Rhymes. Adams looked fantastic during the preseason with his accuracy, as well as the ability to extend plays with his legs and attack downfield.
Although there are question marks about the Leos ground game after losing 1,000-yard rusher James Butler, new starting running back Taquan Mizzell is a better target in the passing game. In fact, the smaller Mizzell in the backfield will likely result in BC relying even more on its aerial attack, which should be conducive to the Over cashing.
The Lions defense looked strong at the beginning of last season, but their inability to stop the run was exposed once Rourke got injured and they weren't jumping out to massive early leads anymore. That D should be even more of a sore spot after losing leading tackler Jordan Williams and a pair of veteran defensive backs in Loucheiz Purifoy and Delvin Breaux.
The Stampeders also lost a few standout defenders after saying goodbye to linebacker Jameer Thurman, along with defensive linemen Shawn Lemon, Folarin Orimolade, and Stefen Banks. While they typically do a good job of replacing defenders within their system, it could take a few weeks to get everyone on the same page, and their pass rush won't have the same juice.
However, Calgary's offense should be ready to roll from Week 1. The Stamps return the CFL's leading rusher in Ka'Deem Carey along with explosive backup Peyton Logan behind an exceptional offensive line. Quarterback Jake Maier is now the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback in Calgary after beating out former MOP winner Bo Levi Mitchell midway through last year. He has a pair of terrific targets in Malik Henry — whom I identified as a potential value bet to record the most receiving yards in my CFL futures column ahead of this season — and Reggie Begelton.
My best bet: Over 47 (-110 at DraftKings)
Lions vs Stampeders same-game parlay
Over 47.5
Malik Henry Over 70.5 rec yards
Dominique Rhymes Over 71.5 rec yards
Vernon Adams Jr. Over 259.5 passing yards
I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Adams, who was named an East All-Star in 2019 before being hampered by injuries the last couple years. Rhymes should be his top target and was second in the CFL with 1,401 receiving yards last year. The 6-foot-4 wideout has been especially dangerous against the Stamps, racking up at least 72 receiving yards in three of four meetings.
I'm also expecting a big performance from Henry, who had 1,023 receiving yards in just 13 games last season. Henry had at least 88 receiving yards in all three of his contests against the Lions, hauling in seven catches for 119 yards during that playoff loss.
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Lions vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
These teams faced off last week in the preseason, with the Lions winning 25-22 on a last-second field goal. Adams looked excellent, completing all 12 of his pass attempts for 213 yards and three scores. However, it would be a mistake to take away too much from that game, since the Stamps used plenty of rookies in a contest where evaluating depth was more important than winning.
The Leos traded for Adams at the end of August after Rourke was injured and he made six starts, including back-to-back contests against the Stamps. He completed 25 of 32 passes for 294 yards in Week 15 as the Lions pulled off the upset as seven-point underdogs in Calgary. However, Adams was limited to just 12 of 24 passing for 151 yards the following week, with the Lions losing 25-11 as 1.5-point pups at home.
When these teams faced off in the playoffs, the Lions won 30-16 at BC Place with Rourke leading the way. The Stamps were able to move the chains on offense, but their inability to convert in the red zone proved costly.
The total for Thursday opened at 46.5 and was quickly bet up to 48, although it's still available at 47 at some books. It's expected to be a warm and dry evening on Thursday night, so don't expect weather to affect the play on the field.
Lions vs Stampeders trend to know
Four of the last six games in this series have gone Over the total. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Stampeders.
Lions vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Thursday, June 8, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Stampeders key injuries
Lions: Keon Hatcher WR (Questionable).
Stampeders: Joshua Coker (Questionable), Nick Statz DB (Questionable), Jalen Philpot WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
