The BC Lions come off a bye and head across the country to take on the Montreal Alouettes in Week 14 of CFL action Friday night. Both teams will try to bounce back from losses with BC looking to find a replacement quarterback for Nathan Rourke, and the Als trying to fix their issues on defense.
CFL betting lines hit the board for this contest with Montreal installed as a 4.5-point home underdog with the Over/Under as high as 55. Here are our best CFL betting picks and predictions Lions vs. Alouettes on September 9.
Lions vs Alouettes best odds
Lions vs Alouettes picks and predictions
The Lions were a juggernaut for much of the year, but losing the league's top player in Rourke completely changed the makeup of this team. Not only will their attack slow down, but their defense — which was statistically the best in the league — will also take a big step back since it can't sit back in coverage after the offense jumps out to early leads.
This opening line gives way too much credit to what BC was and not what it is now. We saw in Week 12 that O'Connor (if healthy) is not a starting caliber CFL QB, and we've known that about Pipken for years since he has completed just 53.7% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and nine interceptions in his career.
Adams is a better option than both of them, but he still needs to learn the playbook and build chemistry with his receivers.
Another factor to consider is special teams since the Lions' previously dominant play on offense and defense hid their biggest weakness. The Leos sit near the bottom of the CFL in punt and kickoff return average along with opponent punt and kick return average.
The Als have one of the league's best return games, ranking first in the CFL in big play returns (nine) and kickoff return average (25.5) while ranking second in punt return average (12.1). They've also gotten excellent play from their coverage units allowing the fewest big play returns (one) in the league.
My best bet: Alouettes +4.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
Lions at Alouettes betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Alouettes are coming off a 38-24 loss to the Redblacks last Friday which dropped their record to 4-7. Despite being three games below .500, they're still just two games behind the Argos for the lead in what has been a weak East Division.
The Als rolled up 401 yards of offense in that contest, but turned the ball over four times while their secondary was torched for 313 yards. The Als have been a fairly average team in most statistical categories, ranking third in CFL in yards per play and sixth in yards per play allowed.
With the exception of a pair of modest games against Winnipeg's dominant defense, Montreal's passing attack under Trevor Harris has been very productive since firing head coach Khari Jones before Week 6. With that said, it has really missed the league's top running back in William Stanback — who has been out with an ankle injury since the season opener.
The Lions were a serious Grey Cup contender and began the year with an 8-1 record before losing MOP front-runner Nathan Rourke to a likely season-ending injury. Without their superstar QB, the Lions struggled to move the ball against the Riders in Week 12 and finished with just 251 yards in a 23-16 loss at home.
Their defense — which allows the fewest yards in the league — also looked awful, surrendering 321 yards through the air and another 164 on the ground to what had previously been an anemic Riders' offense.
Michael O'Connor started at QB in that contest and completed just six of 15 passes before exiting with a groin injury. He was replaced by former Montreal backup Antonio Pipkin who went nine for 17 for 112 yards.
That QB play was so uninspiring that the Lions traded for Montreal's Vernon Adams Jr. last Wednesday. Adams was a 2019 CFL East All-Star who had fallen out of favor with Als' GM and head coach Danny Maciocia after inconsistent play over the last two years.
Adams was acquired to eventually take over the starting duties but Pipkin has been named the starter for Friday. Nonetheless, we'll likely see Adams take the field at some point in this contest, at least in certain packages.
Over/Under analysis
Both of these squads have been cashing Overs lately with the Lions 5-1-1 O/U in their last seven games on the road and the Als 5-0 to the Over in their previous five contests at home. However, the relatively high total for this game (as high as 55 at SportsInteraction) might not accurately reflect the current state of BC's offense.
The Lions were leading the league with a whopping 459.2 yards and 35.9 points per game until Week 12, but expect those numbers to plummet without Rourke, who not only easily lead the league in every passing category, but also had the mobility to avoid pressure and make plays with his feet.
BC's defense — which had held foes to a league-low 276.4 ypg — will also regress since it won't benefit from the strategic advantage of playing with a big lead and forcing opponents to become one dimensional.
The Als rank second last in the league with 28.3 ppg allowed, but despite their play last week they have actually been average against the pass. They are fifth in yards per attempt (8.1) and opponent passer rating (93.5) while ranking third in passing yards allowed per game (265.8). Their biggest weakness has been on the ground where they have been gashed for 110.1 ypg on a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry.
Fortunately for Montreal, the Leos aren't built to exploit that weakness since their running game has been mediocre throughout the season, and won't have Rourke to keep defenses honest anymore.
Lions vs Alouettes game info
• Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QB
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Lions vs Alouettes key injuries
Lions: T.J. Lee DB (Out), Michael O'Connor QB (Questionable), Nathan Rourke QB (Out), Woody Baron DT (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out).
Alouettes: Najee Murray HB (Questionable), William Stanback RB (Out), Greg Reid DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Lions vs Alouettes weather
Lions vs Alouettes betting trend to know
The Alouettes are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight-up loss. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Alouettes.
