Week 5 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday night in Regina where the Saskatchewan Roughriders will play host to the Edmonton Elks.
The Riders are coming off a bye while the Elks are looking in rough shape after starting the year 0-4 both straight up and against the spread.
CFL odds hit the board with the Riders as 7.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 43.5 for this showdown at Mosaic Stadium. Here are my best Elks vs. Roughriders CFL betting picks for July 5.
Elks vs Roughriders best odds
Elks vs Roughriders picks and predictions
When I looked at this line earlier in the week, I considered taking the Elks with the points. After all, they've generally played close contests against the Roughriders over the last few years and barely lost in Week 1 after getting stuffed on the goal line in the fourth quarter.
However, upon closer inspection, I think this game will be more lopsided. Saskatchewan quarterback Trevor Harris is looking more and more comfortable with his new team and while a few starting wideouts are injured, Sam Emilius, Shawn Bane, and Tevin Jones have emerged as reliable targets.
Saskatchewan's running game also got going in Week 3 with Jamal Morrow rushing for 133 yards on 22 carries. Frankie Hickson is also back in the lineup and he and Morrow were the best running back duo in the league when healthy last year.
They should be able to gash an Edmonton defense that's surrendering a CFL-worst 164 rushing yards per game (50 yards more than second-worst Hamilton).
Saskatchewan's offensive line is banged up with center Peter Godber recently joining left tackle Jerald Hawkins on the IL. That said, backup pivot Logan Bandy started 11 games last year and Brandon Council has been manning the blindside for the last few weeks so both have experience. They also won't be tested by an Elks defensive line that has generated just four sacks this year.
On the other side of the ball, Edmonton's quarterback carousel continues with the Elks going back to Taylor Cornelius after replacing him with Jarrett Doege last week. Doege looked awful against the Redblacks but Cornelius also struggled mightily to begin the year and it won't matter who's playing QB for the Elks if their line can't block.
That offensive line has been their biggest weakness and has struggled in both run and pass blocking. That's bad news against a Saskatchewan stop unit that brings plenty of pressure up front.
In addition to all those factors, the schedule-makers have not been kind to the Elks. This will be their third game in the last 12 days while the Riders are fresh off a bye. I'll lay the points with the home side here and put the Elks in automatic fade territory until further notice.
The Riders barely took that contest and they held on for an overtime victory against Calgary in Week 3. Sandwiched between that was an ugly 45-27 loss at home against the Blue Bombers in Week 2.
Trevor Harris has played well at QB for the Riders and the running game got going last week but Saskatchewan's offensive line is banged up and their defensive front hasn't produced like they should. That line was held without a single sack against the Stampeders.
My best bet: Roughriders -7 (-112 at BetRegal)
Elks vs Roughriders same-game parlay
Roughriders -7.5 (+100)
Jamal Morrow Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
Shea Patterson anytime TD (+115)
The Elks are surrendering a CFL-worst 164 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry. Not only is their defensive line struggling to get a push but their tackling in the next level has been sloppy.
That's music to the ears of Morrow who rumbled for more than 100 yards in Week 3 and had 80 rushing yards in Week 1. Morrow was held to 20 yards on six carries in Week 2 but that was with the Bombers taking a big early lead and forcing Saskatchewan to abandon the ground game. Don't expect that to be the case in this contest.
Although Hickson might take a few carries from Morrow, he'll need to ease back into the lineup after missing the last few contests with a shoulder injury.
While Morrow rolled up the yardage against the Stamps, quarterback Shea Patterson vultured him for a pair of goal-line touchdowns. The former Michigan Wolverine will play in short-yardage situations and he should be able to find the end zone against an Elks defense that was shredded for 43 points in Week 3 and gave up 26 points to a punchless Ottawa offense last Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Elks vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Riders as 7-point favorites at most books but quickly shifted to -7.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, several books are starting to move to -8.
Despite many pundits expecting the Elks to show improvement this season, they seem mired in mediocrity after failing to win or cover the spread in their first four contests.
They are coming off a 26-7 road loss to the Redblacks who might be the second-worst team in the league. The Redblacks did benefit from coming off a bye in that contest and they once again face a team with that advantage.
The Riders edged the Elks in Week 1 and while they were hammered by the Blue Bombers in Week 2, they bounced back with a 29-26 overtime victory against the Stamps on June 24.
The total opened at 42.5 and has ticked up to 43.5. The Elks erupted for 31 points thanks to a pair of garbage time TDs in Week 3 but they've generally been unable to find the endzone. They totaled just 20 points in their other three games and each of those contests cashed the Under.
Elks vs Roughriders trend to know
The Elks are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Roughriders.
Elks vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Thursday, July 6, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Roughriders key injuries
Elks: Andrew Garnett LT (Out), Josiah St. John RT (Out), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Geno Lewis WR (Out), Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Ed Gainey DB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out).
Roughriders: Jake Wieneke WR (Out), Peter Godber C (Out), Micah Johnson DT (Probable), Derel Walker WR (Out), Kian Schaffer-Baker WR (Out), Juwan Brescanin WR (Out), Philip Blake OL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
