Usyk vs Dubois Picks and Predictions: Neither Fighter Will Go Down Early

Oleksandr Usyk continues to prove he belongs in the heavyweight division, and now he finds himself as a -1,100 favorite against Daniel Dubois. Our boxing picks expect a Usyk victory, but it may not come as quickly as some think.

Last Updated: Aug 26, 2023 8:14 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Oleksandr Usyk Boxing
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The Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois WBA, WBO, and IBF heavyweight title fight takes place this weekend, August 26, from the Tarczynski Arena in Wroclaw, Poland.

After failed negotiations with Tyson Fury threatened to put Usyk on the shelf, he turned to mandatory challenger Dubois to stay busy and defend his titles.

Boxing odds favor Valdez as a massive -1,100 favorite, and the once-beaten Dubois is a +650 underdog. Here are my free betting picks and predictions for Usyk vs. Dubois this Saturday in Poland.

Usyk vs Dubois odds

Method of victory Oleksandr Usyk Daniel Dubois
Win outright -1,100 +650
Win by KO/TKO/DQ -250 +900
Win by points or decision +250 +2,800
Draw +1,800 +1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of August 24, 2023.

Usyk vs Dubois betting predictions

Picks made on August 26. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Usyk vs Dubois betting preview

Oleksandr Usyk is the reigning and defending WBA, WBO, and IBF heavyweight champion, hot off a second-straight victory over Anthony Joshua. Usyk is a surgical boxer whose power comes more from his precision than force. He uses his footwork to set up traps and fire shots from different angles, proving he’s right at home at heavyweight.

Many hoped that Usyk would face off against Tyson Fury, who faces Francis Ngannou this October, instead. The consensus is that Fury’s size and style are all wrong for the former undisputed cruiserweight champion. On the flip side, there isn’t any other heavyweight in the world Usyk can’t convincingly beat — including Daniel Dubois.

Dubois has rebounded nicely since getting battered by Joe Joyce two years ago. He’s rattled off four straight KO wins since his lone career defeat, earning a shot at Usyk. “Triple D” has won 18 of his 19 fights by knockout, is the taller fighter, and is younger than Usyk by 10 years.

As dynamic and explosive as Dubois is, there’s a ceiling to his ability. Joyce withstood his power and left him with little else, and he hit the canvas three times against journeyman Kevin Lerena in his last fight. It was disclosed in the Lerena fight that he tore his ACL after the first knockdown and is fighting for the first time since getting surgery for that injury. Though he doesn’t have all the tools to convince the world he can beat Usyk, Dubois’ youth and power cannot be ignored.

Usyk vs Dubois boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Usyk ML

Despite the overwhelming odds, there is some intrigue in this fight. Usyk is 36 years old and not a natural heavyweight, relying on movement and guile as opposed to resilience and power. Eventually, Usyk will go over the cliff and be in a position where he can get victimized. 

Dubois is 10 years younger than Usyk and has fast hands and serious power. Unfortunately, he’s easy to hit, basic from a technique standpoint, and he’s been hitting the canvas with increased frequency over his last few fights. If Usyk could withstand Joshua’s biggest shots in their two fights, he should handle Dubois’ power.

Ultimately, Usyk is too good in his current state to get upset by Dubois. While Dubois might flash some hand speed in the early rounds, Usyk’s inside fighting and footwork should neutralize his offense rather quickly. There shouldn’t be a moment where the fight is in doubt, and Usyk will be in control from beginning to end. 

Prediction: Usyk moneyline (-1,100 at DraftKings)

Best Bet: Over 6.5 rounds (-155)

Oddsmakers are calling for Usyk to stop Dubois — which I can understand — but have trouble seeing. Usyk forced an ancient Chazz Witherspoon to retire in his corner in 2019 in his heavyweight debut, and all his fights since have gone the distance. While Dubois did go down three times against Lerna, that could be attributed to him tearing his ACL as opposed to his chin. 

That perception helps trim the line in a big way. The tactical-minded Usyk isn’t going to rush and give Dubois a chance to win, and he hasn’t stopped anyone in the first half of a fight in close to a decade at cruiserweight. 

The best bet here is picking the fight going over 6.5 rounds at -155. 

Prediction: Over 6.5 rounds (-155 at DraftKings)

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