Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Picks and Predictions: Paul Won't Fall Sunday

Jake Paul's finally facing an actual boxer in the ring, but those hoping for him to take a hard fall against "tougher" opposition may be disappointed by Tommy Fury. See why as our boxing picks preview this bout.

Last Updated: Feb 26, 2023 2:01 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jake Paul boxing picks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury is scheduled for eight rounds in the cruiserweight division and is the featured boxing attraction this weekend from the Diriyah Arena in Saudi Arabia.

This match has been at its boiling point for months now, and it looks like there are no more obstacles preventing the boisterous Paul and equally arrogant Fury to have at it.

The current Paul vs. Fury odds have Paul favored at -138 to win. Fury, half-brother of heavyweight champion Tyson, is a +110 underdog.

Here are our free betting picks and predictions for Paul vs. Fury on Sunday, February 26.

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury odds

Method of victory Jake Paul Tommy Fury
Win outright -138 +110
Win by KO/TKO +250 +240
Win by points or decision +240 +400
Draw +1,000 +1,000

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 23, 2022.

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury betting predictions

Picks made on February 23. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best boxing bonuses

Looking to bet on boxing? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Either fighter to be knocked down BOOSTED TO +100 at Betway! Bet Now

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury betting preview

It took long enough, but Paul is finally facing off against an actual pro boxer in rival Fury. There has been much said about Paul’s inability to fight a boxer thus far, instead facing former MMA and NBA stars, but this feels like a step back from him. Fury has the last name, but is as far removed from the class of half-brothers Hughie and heavyweight king Tyson.

Paul (6-0, 4 KO) gets plenty of flak for his choice of opponents, though there is actually substance behind his flash. He’s developing into a decent fighter, has good fundamentals, and punching power. Not many fighters could post the record he has against the competition he’s faced, and he actually represents the biggest test of Fury’s career, not vice versa.

The social media influencer has a knockout rate of 66.6% and an average fight time of 4.3 rounds. Paul is developing boxing instincts and showed a lot of versatility in his decision win over Anderson Silva last year, and now he’s on the verge of finally toppling a professional boxer.

Fury (8-0, 4 KO) isn’t that much different from Paul. After his pro debut, he went to star on the reality show Love Island and resumed his career after the show ended. Though he looks the part of a boxer, Fury’s performances have been less than inspiring. Half of his fights have come against opponents with zero professional victories, and his win over Daniel Bocianski last April was the second time he fought someone with a winning record. 

In spite of that, Fury is the classically-trained boxer, which is an edge that is keeping the lines close. The Manchester native has a 50% knockout rate and an average fight time of three rounds. This will be the first time Fury is scheduled for an eight-round fight. Questions linger about his conditioning and punching power, but he possesses a long, stiff jab that can punish Paul from a distance.

An added factor many aren’t mentioning is that these two have been preparing to fight each other for over a year. That could benefit Fury more so than Paul due to him being in camp solely focusing on the fight, whereas Paul has to spend his time promoting the card and his other ventures. This will also be a test of each other’s ability to keep their emotions in check once the bell finally rings.

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Paul ML

For those hoping Paul was going to get his comeuppance against a boxer, they’ll still be hoping. Fury is underdeveloped and mentally might not be up for the challenge. There’s no doubt that Paul can perform under the bright lights and significant pressure, having faced sterner opposition beyond anybody on Fury’s record.

Too many things fall into Paul’s favor. There’s nothing we’ve seen in Fury’s fights that put him ahead of Paul in any major category. Speed, power, experience, and conditioning all favor Paul. This fight isn’t as dangerous as it is being made to be for the YouTube star.

In this big-time battle between small-time fighters, we expect Paul to come out on top.

Prediction: Paul moneyline (-138 at bet365)

Best Bet: Paul by decision/technical decision

Fury’s tendency to drop his hands and suspected conditioning issues will be his demise. Paul doesn’t neglect body punching, and that should sap Fury’s strength and allow him to take more chances. 

Though he hasn’t fought an actual boxer, Paul has beaten more resourceful opponents. Fury is typically gasping for air after three rounds, and this one is scheduled for eight. Once Fury starts to fade, Paul will start putting his punches together and pull away on the scorecards.

Bet on Paul to score a decision.

Prediction: Paul by decision or technical decision (+240 at bet365)

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo