Nick Ball vs Sam Goodman Predictions, Picks & Odds for August 16

Nick Ball takes on Sam Goodman in a clash of young, undefeated fighters looking to make their mark in the busy featherweight division. 

With Ball attempting to prove his mettle among the other champions, he’s looking for an impressive win over the undersized Goodman, and my Ball vs. Goodman predictions believe he’ll get it.

Here are my best free betting picks for this bout from Riyadh.

Ball vs Goodman prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Ball moneyline (-550 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Ball to win in Round 7-12 (+170 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
Nick Ball is making the third defense of his featherweight title and is undefeated, but the consensus is that he is not yet considered the best in his division. While Sam Goodman is a decent enough prospect, he is largely unproven and moving up in weight after injuries kept him out of a title fight with Naoya Inoue on two separate occasions.

Ball is aiming to solidify his championship credentials and set himself up for a unification fight, and he will need more than a routine win over a smaller, unproven opponent to truly make his case.

Ball arguably deserved the decision in his split draw with Rey Vargas, but he rebounded with a split decision win over Raymond Ford to win a title and is coming off back-to-back stoppage victories against Ronny Rios and TJ Doheny.

The champion will give up a four-and-a-half-inch height advantage to Goodman, but he will hold advantages in overall size, power, and experience against higher-caliber opponents.

Normally, Ball is not a power puncher, but he can generate significant momentum and apply sustained head-and-body pressure that wears opponents down late, as seen in his two recent title defenses. His ability to carry power deep into fights makes him a dangerous assignment for a light-hitting technician like Goodman.

Goodman made his mark by upsetting Doheny early in his career, then outpointing fellow prospects Ra’eese Aleem and Chainoi Worawut to earn a mandatory shot at Inoue that ultimately fell through.

He is a resilient fighter who relies on angles, counterpunching, and hand speed, but making his featherweight debut against an undefeated champion in his prime represents a significant step up in weight and competition. He will need to use his reach and footwork to create openings for counters, but if he fails to earn Ball’s respect, he risks being outworked and worn down in the later rounds.

Goodman may jump to an early lead with his reach and speed, but Ball’s pressure and ability to adjust will turn the tide. If Ball could close the distance effectively against Vargas, a proven champion, he should have little trouble doing the same to Goodman, making it an uncomfortable night for the challenger.

While questions remain about how Ball stacks up against the division’s elite, this is his fight to lose. Ball is the pick.

Best best analysis
Ball has a strong chance to make it three stoppages in a row against an opponent who appears both undersized and overmatched. Goodman lacks the power to hold his own in exchanges and does not possess the craft or awkwardness to sap the energy of the well-conditioned champion.

With just eight knockouts in 20 wins, Goodman will rely on movement and angles, which won’t count for much as Ball’s pressure will trap him on the ropes and limit those opportunities. Once there, the champion’s size and body attack should take over.

My best bet is Ball to score a late-round stoppage between Rounds 7-12.

Nick Ball vs Sam Goodman odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-16.

Nick Ball vs Sam Goodman tale of the tape

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