We are living in a world where Ryan Garcia may be days away from winning a world title. Still, the upset-minded Mario Barrios is no stranger to playing spoiler and keeping his welterweight title around his waist.
Garcia is a -250 favorite, while Barrios is a +195 underdog. Here are my free boxing picks for Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios from Las Vegas on Saturday, February 21.
Barrios vs Garcia prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Ryan Garcia moneyline (-250 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Ryan Garcia moneyline (-250 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Ryan Garcia returned from a year-long PED suspension only to lose to Rolando Romero in a fight designed for him to win.
Under normal circumstances, that kind of loss would send a fighter down the ladder, but Garcia’s popularity and the promotional upside keep him firmly in the spotlight. That’s how he finds himself challenging Mario Barrios for the welterweight title despite the setback. Barrios, meanwhile, has struggled to shake the perception that he’s a transitional champion, yet he enters this bout making his third title defense, being overlooked once more.
Starting with Garcia, he’s physically strong and explosive, has good footwork and impeccable hand speed, along with a strong sense of self-belief that borders on delusional.
For all the good he can do, he’s really just a one-punch fighter whose game plan is to set up his whiplash left-hook and put you out with a follow-up flurry. Fighters like Romero and Gervonta Davis exposed the flaw in that approach. If Garcia can’t find the right timing or angle, his offense can stall, and he doesn’t always have the versatility to adjust on the fly.
Barrios is the definition of a blue-collar champion. He does everything adequately but nothing at an elite level, which is why many view him as vulnerable despite holding a title.
That reputation has made him a perceived stepping stone for bigger names. Even a 47-year-old Manny Pacquiao saw him as an attainable target.
What Barrios does possess is durability and resilience. His biggest issue is his fight IQ and a lack of urgency that can allow quicker opponents to build early leads.
While Garcia can implode and lose the script, Barrios doesn’t have the intangibles that those opponents possessed to knock Garcia out of his game.
Barrios’ textbook approach and deliberate pace could leave him chasing rounds early, especially if Garcia’s speed creates knockdown opportunities that swing the momentum. Garcia is the pick.
Best best analysis
Barrios’ toughness is underrated. He went 11 rounds with Davis and went the distance with big punchers like Pacquiao and Keith Thurman in defeat. While Garcia has the power to finish, Barrios has shown he can absorb punishment and survive. Taking Garcia at anything under -300 is a good look, so Garcia straight up is my best bet.
Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia odds
| Method of victory | Mario Barrios | Ryan Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +195 | -250 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +700 | +125 |
| Win by points or decision | +330 | +230 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 21.
Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia tale of the tape
| Barrios | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 29-2-2 | Record | 24-2 (1 NC) |
| 18 | Wins by KO | 20 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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