Joseph Parker is on the verge of a long-awaited title shot, but he’ll make one last stop as he faces off against dangerous puncher Fabio Wardley in the featured boxing attraction of the weekend.
Parker is the -400 favorite while Wardley is a +300 underdog. Here are my Parker vs. Wardley predictions and betting picks for this October 25 bout from Greenwich.
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Parker vs Wardley prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Parker moneyline (-400 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Parker to win and Under 1.5 knockdowns (+110 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Eight years into his career, Fabio Wardley finally finds himself on the cusp of a heavyweight title shot. The 6-foot-5 power puncher from Suffolk has long carried the look of a dangerous prospect, but recent performances suggest there still may be work to do for the 30-year-old.
We won’t know for sure, because he’s essentially in a do-or-die fight against former world champion Joseph Parker. Unfortunately for Wardley, he’s running into a fighter operating at the absolute peak of his abilities, hungry for another shot at heavyweight gold.
Parker has quietly rebuilt himself into one of the most complete heavyweights in the world. Since linking up with trainer Andy Lee in 2021, he’s elevated his game by incorporating tight defense, improved shot selection, and the ability to persevere under fire.
His recent run of wins over Joe Joyce, Deontay Wilder, and Zhilei Zhang has reignited his career and established him as the rightful next in line for a title shot.
The talk of an Oleksandr Usyk fight in 2026 is no accident, and Parker will likely get it with a win.
Wardley, meanwhile, enters this bout on shaky ground. He narrowly escaped disaster against Justis Huni, getting outboxed for nine rounds before salvaging victory with late power.
He also went life and death with Frazer Clarke, drawing with him in their first fight before winning their rematch by first-round knockout.
His power is undeniable, but there’s plenty to worry about as he’s hittable and an open book for fighters with range management and good footwork. Against a fighter with Parker’s chin, defensive acumen, and experience, it might translate to a rough night.
Parker neutralizes punchers through rhythm and pressure. He keeps them off balance while with sharp, controlled combinations. This approach dismantled Joyce and Wilder, who were better punchers and more skilled than Wardley.
Being Parker’s high guard, early frustrations should take the sting out of Wardley’s offense early and give Parker the chance to take over the fight completely by the midpoint.
Unless Wardley lands something that Parker isn’t ready for, this fight is Parker’s to lose, and he’s the pick.
Best best analysis
Expect Wardley to force some shots that will get picked off or miss their mark, and Parker’s sharper punching and counters will sap the fight from him.
Parker dropping Wardley isn’t out of the picture, and if he does, I feel Wardley won’t get up if he gets dropped.
Joseph Parker vs Fabio Wardley odds
| Method of victory | Joseph Parker | Fabio Wardley |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -400 | +300 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -110 | +450 |
| Win by points or decision | +210 | +1100 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 10-23.
Joseph Parker vs Fabio Wardley tale of the tape
| Parker | Wardley | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 30 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 36-3 | Record | 19-0-1 |
| 24 | Wins by KO | 18 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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