Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Alvarez Wins Mexican Standoff

It's Cinco de Mayo weekend, and that means the pride of Mexico, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez, is back in the ring. He faces undefeated fellow countryman Jaime Munguia on Saturday, but our boxing betting picks don't see Canelo letting down his public.

Danny Howard - Betting Analyst at
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
May 4, 2024 • 20:15 ET • 4 min read
Canelo Alvarez boxing
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Undisputed super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces off against undefeated puncher Jamie Munguia tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Boxing odds have Alvarez as a -500 favorite for this Mexican standoff, with the undefeated Munguia listed as a +360 underdog. 

Here are my free betting picks for Alvarez vs. Munguia on Saturday, May 4.

Alvarez vs Munguia prediction and pick

Fight analysis

There are indicators that Alvarez is entering the back nine of his legendary career, and this fight signifies a change of narrative where he is now the older fighter taking on an undefeated champion six years his junior. Munguia is a former junior middleweight champion with a heavy frame and big punching power who is coming off a pair of big wins against the likes of Sergiy Derevenchenko and John Ryder.

Alvarez hasn’t shown the same competitive fire he’s been known for in years past, with his wins following his humbling defeat to Dmitry Bivol having seen him take a cautionary approach to how he operates. Even if Alvarez, now 33, is in the evitable slowing down process of his career and perhaps more selective with his opponents, there isn’t anything in Munguia’s makeup aside from those intangibles that make him a threat. With Alvarez looking sharp last October as he easily dispatched Jermell Charlo, who provided more of a stylistic challenge on paper than Munguia does, it would take a dramatic decline in form for him to lose.

Munguia is a plodder who can outlast other like-minded pressure fighters with his heavy hands, but he is open to absorbing shots all the same and hasn’t fought a technically-proficient fighter half as good as Alvarez. Also, it wasn’t that long ago when Munguia’s team was actively avoiding fights with top fighters at middleweight, such as Jermall Charlo, Demetrius Andrade, and Janibek Alimkhanuly, as they could have potentially sunk this potential mega fight.

Toughness alone isn’t enough to overtake Alvarez just yet, and unfortunately for Munguia backers, toughness is all he has to offer. Expect Alvarez to sharpshoot his way to victory.

Best best analysis

Since 2020, four of Alvarez’s six wins have come by decision. While he possesses stopping power, Alvarez gets his knockouts through accumulation and counterpunches rather than pure aggression and doesn’t tend to stop fighters with a natural size advantage or considerable punching power.

Munguia is easy to hit, but his chin looks solid and he has always taken big shots well. If Alvarez feels like he’s getting ahead on the cards and isn’t overextending himself to find scoring opportunities as Munguia plods forward, his footwork and outside boxing ability will carry him to the finishing line. Perhaps a sign of Alvarez’s decline has been his unwillingness to step on the gas and put down overmatched foes like Ryder and Charlo, but Alvarez has always been an intelligent fighter and actively assesses risk and reward as the fight goes on.

I expect Alvarez to outclass Munguia, but he’s not going to do so in a manner where he’ll threaten a stoppage. This should be a typical Alvarez performance where he’ll opt for skill over grit, outpointing a hapless Munguia. 

Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia odds

Method of victory Canelo Alvarez Jaime Munguia
Win outright -500 +360
Win by KO/TKO/DQ +170 +950
Win by unanimous decision +115 +1,100
Draw +2,000 +2,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-4.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia tale of the tape

Alvarez   Munguia
33 Age 27
5-foot-8 Height 6-foot
168 pounds Weight 168 pounds
71 inches Reach 74 inches
60-2-2 (39 KOs) Record 43-0 (34 KOs)

Not intended for use in MA.
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