NFL betting officially gets underway for the 2019 season when the Atlanta Falcons face the Denver Broncos in Canton, Ohio Thursday night.
The Hall of Fame Game odds have gone on one hell of a ride, opening as big as Atlanta -2.5 and swinging as far as Denver -3, with early money hitting the Broncos with both hands. Most books enter Thursday’s exhibition game just under the key number of a field goal. **video
If you’ve been starved for football betting action, we breakdown the best ways to wager on the Hall of Fame Game with our NFL picks and predictions – from quick-hitting props to the side and total.
DENVER BRONCOS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS (+2.5, 34)
QUICK HITTER
The Hall of Fame Game has really fallen out of favor with head coaches, who despise having an extra exhibition game on the schedule. Teams featured in Canton have opted to sit out the bulk of their first teams more and more, and Thursday’s game is no exception.
The Falcons and Broncos won’t run the risk playing their starting QBs nor will you see too many name-worthy skill players. Any familiar faces will be in the trenches, with both teams trying to iron out their starting offensive lines.
Even with more starters watching from the sideline, the opening quarter of the Hall of Fame Game has been busy in previous years. There were 17 first-quarter points scored last August and 22 points in the opening 15 minutes in 2017. In fact, in the past six HoF Games, there has been at least one touchdown scored in the first frame in five of those warm-up contests.
While we’re not basing bets on preseason trends (that’s a no-no), we do like having some experience plowing the road for the offense. The Falcons have a solid ground game with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith and the Broncos have a hungry QB in Kevin Hogan making the start, as he tries to keep rookie QB Drew Lock at bay for the backup job.
PREDICTION: Score in first 7:30 of first quarter: Yes -115
FIRST HALF
Baptism by fire seems to be the game plan for new Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, who told the media he wants to test his team by putting them in tough situations.
“For instance, if I’m pretty confident they might be throwing it, instead of giving a corner some help, we’ll see if he can cover his guy. Play a light box even though we think they might be running it, things like that,” Fangio told the media earlier this week.
That gauntlet was also thrown down in front of the offense, with Fangio challenging his offensive line and running backs early into the Hall of Fame Game.
“Yeah, let’s see who can block a good pass rusher without chipping them,” Fangio said. “Even though they’ve got the box loaded, let’s see if we can run the ball up the middle.”
It remains to be seen if he’ll do this with the third and fourth-string guys in the second half, but these tough tests could have the Broncos falling behind in the opening 30 minutes of preseason play.
PREDICTION: Atlanta first-half +0.5
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TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Matt Schaub has led a charmed NFL career over the past few seasons, earning almost $1.9 million a year while serving as the backup to former MVP Matt Ryan and being relatively untested for the No. 2 spot.
However, 2019 brings the challenge of Ken Benkert, a second-year undrafted free agent who showed some chops in last year’s exhibition slate. Atlanta coach Dan Quinn will take a long look at both passers, especially the more-mobile (and cheaper) Benkert Thursday night. Expect that competition to bleed over into the Hall of Fame Game.
The Falcons could also see some life from their running game. As mentioned, there will be some starting o-linemen paving the way in the opening quarter and Freeman and Ito are also locked in a battle for snaps. There’s also fifth-round selection Qadree Ollison giving the Falcons something to look for in the second half.
New (yet old) offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has installed an up-tempo attack, so expect a quicker pace and no-huddle offense from Atlanta. That should test the Broncos defense and conditioning early into exhibition play.
PREDICTION: Atlanta team total – Over 16
OVER/UNDER BET
As mentioned above, we predict more fight from the Falcons’ quicker offense than oddsmakers are projecting. And with a total as low as 34 points, Over bettors won’t need much extra from these offenses.
Quinn has said the Hall of Fame Game will be more a showcase for his rookies and younger players, namely on defense, where the Falcons desperately need to find capable reserves after injuries shredded their depth chart early into 2018.
As for the Broncos, Hogan will get the early snaps but expect added reps from Lock. He’s done his best work at camp in move-the-ball two-minute drills, not striking for deep passes but instead hitting running backs and tight ends for short gains to keep the chains moving.
That tempo could have some inexperienced Falcons defenders on their heels (as well as sucking wind. There’s no shape like game shape), leading to added scoring in the final two quarters. Traditionally, the HoF Game has been lower scoring in the second half, with totals of 16, 13, 7, and 10 scored in the final 30 minutes the past four showcases. We aren’t buying into that Thursday.
PREDICTION: Over 34
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SIDE BET
The Hall of Fame Game line hit the board a week ago at most sportsbooks, and if you’re into chasing steam then hopefully you got the best of the number on the Broncos before the spread flip-flopped to Denver -2.5.
Some people point to Fangio and his new post in Denver, with an extra incentive to win in his head coaching debut – at least providing more motivation than Quinn and his staff at Atlanta. Bettors could also be scared off by the fact the Falcons have posted an 0-8 ATS mark in the preseason the past two years.
We’re not buying it. Denver is working in a brand-new staff and will be leaning on an unproven rookie passer for most of this game. Atlanta does have a new OC in Koetter – kind of (was with Falcons between 2012-2014) – and Quinn is taking over playcalling for the defense, but there’s familiarity there. Plus, Schaub has plenty of experience and Benkert played in the preseason last sumer.
Thanks for the points.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +2.5
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