NFL Week 5 Sunday has some intriguing games shaping up for sportsbooks and bettors alike. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for a few matchups, with insights from Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks, and Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills – Open: +3.5; Move: +4; Move: +5; Move: +5.5
This is hardly a marquee matchup, but for the second straight week, MGM books have big liability on Tennessee, primarily due to one big bettor. That bettor cashed last week on the Titans (3-1 SU and ATS), who bested defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 26-23 in overtime as a 3-point home underdog.
Meanwhile, Buffalo made a big regression after its surprising week 3 blowout road upset of Minnesota. The Bills (1-3 SU and ATS) were back in that same neck of the woods in Week 4, getting blanked at Green Bay 22-0 as an 8.5-point pup.
“This is a big game for us, not only on the pointspread, but on the moneyline,” Stoneback said, noting the pointspread ticket count was only 2/1 on the Titans, but pointspread money was many times more than that ratio. The moneyline moved from Titans -180 to -250.
The big bettor was the same one who had the Titans and Texans last week at MGM books, and the Saints two weeks ago at Atlanta, winning moneyline and pointspread wagers in all those cases.
“We need the Bills big time,” Stoneback said from his home base at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip. “Not necessarily outright, but it would be a big win for us if the Bills did win outright.”
The Superbook opened Tennessee a tick lower at -3 and also jumped to 5.5.
“We haven’t gotten any big bets on the Titans moneyline, but we do have several large wagers on Titans -3, -3.5, -5 and -5.5. We definitely need the Bills to cover, but not necessarily win the game,” Wilkinson said.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3; Move: None
After not winning a game all last season, Cleveland could arguably be 4-0 this year, but instead sits at 1-2-1 SU (3-1 ATS). The Browns were in another tight one in Week 4 at Oakland, losing 45-42 in overtime as a 2.5-point pup in the first NFL start for rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Baltimore is out of the gate 3-1 SU and ATS, tied with Cincinnati atop the AFC North. The Ravens went to Pittsburgh as 3-point ‘dogs in Week 4 and left with a 26-14 outright victory.
“Actually, things are back to normal with Cleveland. We need the Browns,” Stoneback said, noting that although the number hasn’t moved, the Ravens’ price went from -105 to -125, and the line could be headed to 3.5. “It’s a 3/1 ticket count on Baltimore, and we’ve taken some very large wagers on the Ravens.”
The Superbook put the Ravens up at -1.5 last Sunday evening and got to -3 within a day, and the price has been -120 since Wednesday.
“We’ve got a lot of liability on Ravens -3,” Wilkinson said.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -3; Move: None
Arguably the biggest game of the week features the current “It” player in Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS after getting a late touchdown on “Monday Night Football” to top Denver 27-23 as a 3.5-point road fave. Mahomes only had one touchdown pass in that outing, but he now has 14 on the season, against zero interceptions.
Jacksonville owns a big Week 2 win over New England, followed by a bad Week 3 loss to Tennessee. In Week 4, playing their third straight home game, the Jaguars (3-1 SU and ATS) rolled over the New York Jets 31-12 laying 7.5 points.
“We need the Chiefs here,” Stoneback said of a 1 p.m. ET clash. “They bet the Jaguars. Pointspread money is about 6/1 on Jacksonville, even though the ticket count is 2.5/1 on the Chiefs. Sharp money on the Jaguars.”
The line has been steady at Chiefs -3, but KC’s price has dipped from -115 to even money.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers – Open: -7; Move: -6.5
Carolina comes into this 1 p.m. ET meeting with plenty of rest, after a bye in Week 4. The Panthers (2-1 SU and ATS) topped Cincinnati 31-21 giving 2.5 points at home in Week 3.
New York is off to a sluggish start and is on the road for the third time in four weeks. The Giants (1-3 SU and ATS) couldn’t keep up with New Orleans last week, losing 33-18 as a 3.5-point home ‘dog.
“We took a bunch of money on the Giants,” Stoneback said. “We opened Carolina -7 (even), and now it’s -6.5 (-105). There’s a huge discrepancy in pointspread cash, despite the ticket count being 2/1 on the Panthers.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
