The 2026 World Cup 2026 officially ends tonight, once the dust settles around Argentina and Spain.
To help wrap things up on another terrific tournament, we've polled our soccer experts for their favorite World Cup picks for what may not be the most exciting final.
Here are our Argentina vs. Spain expert picks, with the action kicking off at 3 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium, with the TV broadcast on FOX.
Argentina vs Spain expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Chris Vasile: Under 2.5 |
-149 |
 Jason Ence: Lionel Messi to score a goal - YES |
+178 |
 Sam Farley: Either team to win in regulation - NO |
+194 |
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Chris Vasile's expert pick: Under 2.5 total goals
Kalshi probability: 60%
American odds: -149
World Cup finals are rarely played at full throttle from the opening whistle, and this matchup feels no different. The stakes are enormous, meaning every mistake is magnified, and neither manager will want to be the first to blink.
Spain will dominate possession, but that doesn't necessarily translate into clear-cut chances against an Argentina defense content to protect the middle of the pitch and force play wide. At the other end, Argentina have little reason to speed up the game against a Spanish side that thrives when matches open up.
I'm expecting a patient opening hour before each side finds a breakthrough, with a 1-1 scoreline keeping the Under 2.5 alive through regulation.
Jason Ence's expert pick: Lionel Messi to score a goal - YES
Kalshi probability: 36%
American odds: +178
Messi leads all players at the tournament with 34 attempts, and only Kylian Mbappe has more accurate ones. That said, this Spanish defense is difficult to break down, which is why he’s got the longest odds he’s had to score in any tournament match thus far.
That’s not to say he won’t get chances. Messi will be a tricky matchup for Pedro Porro, and his experience and technical ability will be difficult for Spain to defend against. He’s also the beneficiary of a side set up to do all the work while providing him service.
Argentina have a 66% implied probability to score, making Messi’s price strong value given he’s bagged eight of their 15 regulation goals.
Sam Farley's expert pick: Either team to win in regulation - NO
Kalshi probability: 34%
American odds: +194
Two of Spain's four knockout games featured winning goals after the 88th minute. Otherwise, those games would have finished level in regulation.
Meanwhile, the Argentines have had two of their four knockout games require extra time, while winners scored in added time against Egypt and England are the reason they’re here. Argentina are at their best when teams sit back deep against them, allowing the likes of Lionel Messi to dictate play high up the pitch.
England saw that in the semifinals, and Spain, with their excellent press and ability to control the ball, won’t allow that to happen. This could be a long, uneventful 90 minutes.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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