The Minnesota Lynx slammed the Dallas Wings in their season opener last Friday in a 99-84 smacking — and they're now sitting as double-digit faves for tonight's rematch.
Between Napheesa Collier and Paige Bueckers, this matchup has no lack of star power. However, my Wings vs. Lynx predictions focus on Bridget Carleton's work on the glass.
Read why in my WNBA picks for May 21, with tip coming at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Wings vs Lynx predictions
My Wings vs Lynx best bet: Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)
Bridget Carleton has been a beast on the boards in the first two games of the season, posting seven rebounds in both wins over L.A. and the Dallas Wings.
This is a significant jump from her 3.8 rebounds per game in 2024, but with Kayla McBride away from the team and Napheesa Collier playing away from the rim a little more, the 6-foot-2 Collier is logging lots of minutes and crashing the glass.
She could be even more vital on the boards tonight with fellow forward Alanna Smith nursing a quad injury.
Her current rebound prop sits at 4.5, and her player projections sit around four rebounds — not accounting for the gaps in the Minnesota Lynx lineup or Dallas dealing with enemy territory for the first time this season.
The Wings are 0-2 and hit the road to face the best defense in the WNBA. Dallas is shooting 41% to start the schedule, including just 27% from 3-point range in those two home games.
Carleton’s rebounding market is moving quickly, with some books jumping to as high as Over 4.5 -145, but you can still find that same ask for -120 at DraftKings.
Paige Bueckers pick: Bueckers finds confidence from deep
My best bet
Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 threes (+185 at BetMGM)
It’s a homecoming for the WNBA’s latest star rookie. Dallas guard Paige Bueckers — the pride of Hopkins, Minnesota — will take on the Lynx in front of a familiar crowd tonight.
Bueckers debuted in Dallas vs. Minnesota, scoring 10 points in a loss, and followed that with a 19-point performance in a home defeat to Los Angeles. She was a combined 1-for-4 from 3-point range in those outings.
However, I could see Bueckers being much more active from outside tonight. The Wings are massive underdogs inside the Target Center, which paints a game script of Dallas playing from behind.
A trailing team is more apt to launch up a lot of 3-pointers in an attempt to quickly close that gap. Bueckers hasn’t been very aggressive on offense in her first two games, but I expect her comfort level to spike with many more field goal attempts — including looks from distance.
Player models range between 1.3 and 1.44 triples from the No. 1 overall pick. The Over 1.5 is paying out a hefty sum, and I see Bueckers logging major minutes — regardless of whether the game is close.
With plenty of family and friends in attendance, Bueckers will have the green light, and even if the Lynx pull away, don’t expect Dallas to pull its young star in such a special spot.
Wings vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Bridget Carleton 5+ rebounds
Paige Bueckers 2+ threes
Courtney Williams 15+ points
Carleton has crashed the glass for seven rebounds in each of the first two games, logging extra minutes with Minnesota missing some key bodies.
Bueckers will be more comfortable in this Wings offense and playing at home, with game script saying Dallas needs big buckets from Bueckers.
Courtney Williams has picked up the scoring slack with Kayla McBride out and dropped 23 on Dallas last Friday.
Wings vs Lynx odds
Wings vs Lynx live odds
Wings vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +11.5 | Minnesota -11.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +475 | Minnesota -650
- Over/Under: Over 168 | Under 168
Wings vs Lynx trend
WNBA favorites are 8-3 SU and ATS to start the 2025 season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Lynx.
How to watch Wings vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, FDSN - North |
Wings vs Lynx latest injuries
Wings: No injuries to report.
Lynx: Kayla McBride G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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