Sun vs Mystics Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Atkins Bounces Back

The Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun could very well be playing for second place in the WNBA’s Eastern Conference this season, but don’t tell them that.

These two rivals clashed in Connecticut on Sunday, with the Sun holding off the Mystics for a closely contested 80-74 victory. This home-and-home set swings to the nation’s capital, where Washington is waiting as a 5.5-point favorite Tuesday night.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for this Eastern Conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sun at Mystics on May 23.

Sun vs Mystics best odds

Sun vs Mystics picks and predictions

Washington still hung tough with Connecticut despite a bad shooting day from just about every member of the starting lineup.

Included in that Sunday funk was guard Ariel Atkins, who went 2-for 9 from the floor, including 0-for-5 on triples, to finish with only eight points in 33 minutes. Atkins actually scored six of those eight in the first half, picking up four points from the free-throw line, before a 1-for-6 flop in the final two quarters.

Atkins posted 14 points in the opening win over New York, shooting 5-for-10 from the floor, but again struggled from deep with a 1-for-4 clip from beyond the arc. She averaged just over 14 points versus Connecticut last season (a high of 18 points in their last matchup of the year) and today’s point prop versus the Sun has Atkins hovering on that line at 13.5 Over/Under.

Today's WNBA player projections are calling for a bigger offensive effort from Washington’s defensive stopper, with a forecast north of 16 points. That’s a solid gap between the oddsmakers’ expectations and the even-money price tag on the Over 13.5 provides excellent positive expected value.

Atkins played her best ball in D.C. last season, leading the Mystics with 15.6 points per home game while enjoying a near 45% success rate from the field along with a 41% 3-point percentage. That production dipped to 13.7 points on the road, where the six-year veteran made less than 40% of her shots including just 31% from outside.

With Washington’s spread jumping as much as 1.5 points and this total climbing higher than Sunday’s closing number, game script is calling for a stronger showing from the Mystics stars as hosts. And no member benefits more from homecourt than Atkins. 

My best bet: Ariel Atkins Over 13.5 points (+100 at bet365)

Sun vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun opened as slim favorites at home for this past weekend’s game, but the market moved toward the Mystics and closed with the visitor as short 1.5-point road chalk. Tuesday’s line opened as short as Washington -4 and has since climbed to as high as -5.5 this morning.

Sunday’s first meeting of the season was a thrilling showcase for two of the top teams in the league, who many forecast to finish No. 3 and No. 4 behind the “super teams” in Las Vegas and New York. Washington could have been suffering from a touch of the “letdown spot” after upsetting the Liberty in the season opener.

Connecticut roared back from an early 12-point hole to D.C., leaning on its defense to flip its fortunes in the final three quarters Sunday. The Sun checked the Mystics to less than 40% shooting on the day, including a dismal 3-for-21 mark from beyond the arc from Washington.

The Mystics hope home court can spark some efficiency on offense. Even in its one-sided win over New York, Washington was stellar at scoring. It just got more chances with the new-look Liberty turning the ball over 20 times. The Mystics shot below 46% and were a cold 6 for 23 from long range in that victory.

The Over/Under total for Tuesday’s game opened at 159.5 points and has bounced between that number and a slight climb to 160.

The Sun and Mystics were the top two defensive teams in the WNBA last season, and Sunday’s 80-74 final score played up to that billing, staying below the closing total of 158.5 points. That number opened as low as 156.5 and jumped two points with play on the Over.

Sunday’s game was played at a pace rating of 102.0, which is a much higher tempo than what we saw from these offenses last season (Washington ranked slowest at 94.05 while Connecticut’s rating was at 96.45). However, these squads look a little different than 2022.

The Mystics have a healthy Elena Delle Donne on the floor for the first time in a long while and the Sun are under a new head coach in Stefanie White and reworking the focus of their attack with former MVP Jonquel Jones in New York.

Last season, the Sun and Mystics played Under in all three meetings and are on a 0-4 O/U run after Sunday’s low-scoring result.

Sun vs Mystics betting trend to know

The Mystics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mystics.

Sun vs Mystics game info

Sun vs Mystics key injuries

Sun: Lauren Cox F (Questionable).
Mystics: Myisha Hines-Allen F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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