Sun vs Liberty Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

The New York Liberty are alone atop the WNBA standings heading into the monthlong break for the Olympics, and they can grow their lead with a win tonight against the Connecticut Sun.

New York may be without its best player, but that can directly provide value in our free Sun vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks for Tuesday, July 16.

Sun vs Liberty predictions

My best bet
Jonquel Jones Over 16.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Breanna Stewart could still play for the New York Liberty tonight, as she has not officially been ruled out, but it would be a surprise. The defending MVP will lead the U.S. into the Olympics over the next month, so this is effectively her last chance to rest while most of the league readies for a long vacation.

In her absence, New York still has the delightful fortune of turning to two other stars vs. the Connecticut Sun. Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones should be more than enough to beat just about any team in the WNBA.

Many might assume Stewart’s rest will most benefit Ionescu’s stat line, but the two do not overlap as much as Stewart and Jones do. For example, Ionescu takes more than half her shots from deep and Jones nears 40%, but Stewart is below 29%.

Ionescu grabs only 7.5% of available rebounds, not surprisingly. Meanwhile, Jones and Stewart both track down more than 15% of available boards, including more than 5% each of available offensive rebounds.

Some of Stewart’s work in the lane will naturally fall to Jones. Some of her midrange shots could instead become post moves from Jones. Some of Stewart’s usual offensive rebounds will be loose for Jones to secure within putback range.

That should be enough to propel Jones past a points prop she has already cleared in seven of her last 13 games.

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Sun vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)

Jonquel Jones Over 16.5 points

Jonquel Jones Over 10.5 rebounds

Liberty moneyline

+309 at FanDuel

Jones has been on a rebounding tear of late. Some argument can be made that Over prop should be the best bet. In Jones’ last eight games, she has grabbed at least 11 rebounds in six of them, averaging 10.6 boards in the stretch.

With Stewart presumably sidelined, there is absolutely no reason to doubt Jones continuing that stretch.

And the idea of the best post player in this game notching a double-double tonight should add a bounty of confidence to New York winning outright.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sun vs Liberty odds

Sun vs Liberty live odds

Get the latest Sun vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.

Sun vs Liberty opening odds

• Spread: Connecticut +6.5 | New York -6.5
• Moneyline: Connecticut +235 | New York -310
• Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5

Sun vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

• New York opened as a 6.5-point favorite late on Sunday, a number that fell to -4.5 on Monday afternoon when the Stewart news became clear.
• Is Stewart worth two points? The line fell by that much on Saturday, from -5.5 to -3.5, when Stewart was sidelined against the Chicago Sky. A consistent move like that argues for the validity of the aggressiveness.
• This total opened at 153.5 early on Monday morning and proceeded to fall to 152.5 on Monday night before steadying at most books at 153.

Sun vs Liberty trend

New York has covered the spread in four of its last five games and by an average of 5.1 points in those four ATS wins. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Liberty.

Sun vs Liberty game info

Sun vs Liberty latest injuries

Sun: M. Jefferson (Out).
Liberty: B. Stewart (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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