The 2025 WNBA regular season opening weekend continues Saturday night with a matchup between two teams that finished in the middle of the pack last year. The Seattle Storm will travel to Arizona to take on the Phoenix Mercury.
The Storm have a very new roster this season with the departure of Jewell Loyd, but will feature the debut of second overall pick, Dominique Malonga, from France. The Mercury return leading scorer Kahleah Copper but feature an entirely new roster otherwise.
My Storm vs. Mercury predictions run down the spread and total for this season opener as I give my best WNBA picks for May 17.
Storm vs Mercury predictions
My Storm vs Mercury best bet: Storm -3.5 (-105 DraftKings)
The Seattle Storm will need to replace leading scorer Jewell Loyd, who averaged 19.7 points per game last season. However, they added Alysha Clark from the Las Vegas Aces, who won Sixth Player of the Year just two years ago. The Storm also added a lot of size between Li Yueru from the Los Angeles Sparks and second pick, Dominique Malonga.
Seattle is also returning key players Skylar Diggins, Ezi Magbegor, Nneka Ogwumike, and Gabby Williams. Those four combined for 53.8 points, 22.2 rebounds, and 14.4 assists per game last season. So, they will have plenty of chemistry to start the season.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury will have a lot of chemistry to build early on this season, with returning only two players from their entire 2024 roster. The good news is that one of those two players is Kahleah Copper, who averaged 21.1 points per game. The other good news is they added a lot of scoring from elsewhere in the off-season.
Satou Sabally averaged 17.9 points per game last season for the Dallas Wings and was First Team All-WNBA two years ago. Alyssa Thomas averaged 10.6 points last year for the Connecticut Sun and has been First Team All-WNBA each of the last two seasons. So, talent will not be an issue for this Mercury team despite revamping the roster.
However, it will likely take some time for this Mercury team to gel and will be going against a core four players that have played multiple years together. Depth could also be a big issue for the Mercury, so I will take the Storm to get this early season win on the road and cover the small spread.
Storm vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Storm -2.5
Skylar Diggins 15+ points
Nneka Ogwumike Under 7.5 rebounds
To go with my best bet, I am going to play a couple of player props. To start, I am going with Diggins to score at least 15 points. She will need to be more of a scorer without Loyd this season and she averaged 15.1 last year. She also averaged 17.3 points per game on the road last season.
Finally, I am going to take Ogwumike Under on rebounds. She dropped down to one of her lower career rebounding averages last season playing with Magbegor. Now add any minutes that newbies Yueru and Malonga contribute, and her rebounding opportunities will continue to decrease. She will also have Thomas to deal with, who is one of the better offensive rebounders in the league.
Storm vs Mercury odds
Storm vs Mercury live odds
Storm vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -4.5 (-112) | Phoenix +4.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Seattle -192 | Phoenix +160
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-108) | Under 154.5 (-112)
Storm vs Mercury trend
The Storm are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 matchups with the Mercury. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mercury.
How to watch Storm vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, 5-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family Sports, CBS 5, KOMO 4, CW Seattle |
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