Sparks vs Mercury Picks and Predictions: Los Angeles Comes Out Swinging on Road

After a finals run last season, this year has been a nightmare for Phoenix both on and off the court. Now it has to face a Los Angeles team who is well rested and hungry. Who will prevail? Find out in our WNBA betting picks for Sparks vs. Mercury.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jun 5, 2022 • 12:45 ET • 4 min read
Nneka Ogwumike Chiney Ogwumike Los Angeles Sparks WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Sparks hope a brief break in schedule doesn’t cool their recent play heading into Sunday’s road showdown with the Phoenix Mercury.

Los Angeles has won two in a row and three of its last four outings, but enjoyed a rare rest spot in the frantic WNBA schedule, getting four full days to recover — and more importantly practice before traveling to the desert for a matchup with Phoenix. L.A. opened this winning run with a 99-94 home win over the Mercury on May 25. 

Here are our free picks and predictions for Sparks at Mercury on June 5.

Sparks vs Mercury odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Sparks vs Mercury predictions

Predictions made on 5/6/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Best WNBA bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in first bet offer with Caesars! Sign Up Now

B) New users can get two first bet offer bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now

*Eligible USA locations only

Sparks vs Mercury info

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Sunday, June 5, 2022
Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Arizona, Sportsnet LA

Sparks vs Mercury betting preview

Key injuries

Sparks: Kristi Toliver G (Out), Rae Burrell F (Out).
Mercury: Tina Charles F (Questionable), Kia Nurse G (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Los Angeles is 6-1 Over/Under in its last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Mercury.

Sparks vs Mercury picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The 2022 schedule doesn’t give teams much time to catch their breath, let alone run proper practices between games. Los Angeles finds itself playing its best basketball of the young season and getting an extended hiatus before Sunday’s trip to Phoenix.

The Sparks are 3-1 straight up and against the spread over their past four games and didn’t run a full practice in that stretch. Now, not only has L.A. had time to rest and recover — potentially getting standout guard Jordin Canada (11.3 PPG) back for Sunday — but it has a full-fledged game plan for its opponent, and had the luxury of fixing some of its glaring weaknesses. 

The biggest blemish for Los Angeles is a defense ranked dead last in the WNBA with a rating of 107.6. The Sparks have allowed almost 88 points per outing, including 94 points to the Mercury in their most recent matchup. 

Head coach Derek Fisher is getting back to the fundamentals on the defensive end, focusing on closing the space between shooters and getting back on transition defense, as the team has been torched by fastbreak buckets. 

Those defensive adjustments will come in handy against a Phoenix attack that runs the third quickest pace in the league (97.74). The Mercury aren’t the most dangerous fastbreak offense in the WNBA, but they put up 16 points on the break in the last meeting with L.A. — nearly doubling their season average in fastbreak production.

The Sparks have been able to overcome those defensive shortcomings with an improved scoring attack during this four-game span, owning an offensive rating of 114.8 in those contests — tops in the league. Los Angeles is pouring in 93.3 average points on 55.8% shooting, including a near 49% clip from beyond the arc. That attack gets a huge piece of the backcourt back in Canada, who missed the previous two games with a hamstring injury. 

Given that offensive output and some bonus time to tighten up the defense, we like the road team to take it the host Mercury, who are already playing without Brittney Griner inside and could also be down veteran center Tina Charles tonight.

This line actually flipped from L.A. +1 to -1.5 in the process of writing this piece, which is a good indicator that Charles will likely sit or that sharp money is getting out ahead of official news.

Prediction: Sparks -1.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

The Mercury were forced to go small with Charles out of action vs. Connecticut on Friday, with 6-foot-1 guard Sophie Cunningham stepping into the forward role and playing in the post. That lineup stirred up a quicker tempo for that game, which boasted a pace rating of 102.6 — well above Phoenix’s season-long rating of 97.74. 

If Charles is out again, the Mercury could steer into that up-tempo approach against Los Angeles. The Sparks have a big frontcourt protecting the inside, with 6-foot-8 Liz Cambage, 6-foot-3 Katie Lou Samuelson, and 6-foot-2 Nneka Ogwumike protecting the paint.

Phoenix will look to push the ball whenever it can, in an attempt to beat that towering lineup down the floor and avoid L.A. getting set in the halfcourt. The Mercury aren’t shy about letting it fly in transition from beyond the arc either, ranked out fourth in 3-point attempts.

Even with Los Angeles' re-focus on defense, these teams can put up a pile of points as evidenced by the 193 combined points in their matchup on May 25.

Prediction: Over 170.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

The Sparks already dominate the interior with a forceful frontcourt that leads the WNBA in points in the paint, with 42.2 per contest. 

Add to that the team’s current offensive rhythm, a series of much-needed practices, and a small lineup from the Mercury, and L.A. could flirt with 100 points in Phoenix tonight.

Fisher’s dedication to defense could help fuel the L.A. offense. Phoenix has lost seven in a row while coughing up the ball an average of 14.4 times per game which have been flipped into 16.4 points off turnovers per game in that span. The Mercury registered 20 turnovers and allowed 24 POTO in Friday’s loss to Connecticut.

Los Angeles sits fifth in forcing turnovers (15.7 per game) and translated its opponents errors into 18.7 points for — third highest in the WNBA. 

The Sparks’ team total is set at 85.5 points, a mark Los Angeles has eclipsed in four of its last three (and just stayed Under with 85 points in the win at Minnesota on May 29). This team total has climbed at other books, jumping to 86.5, so shop around for the lowest number.

Pick: Sparks team total Over 85.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

WNBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Sparks vs. Mercury predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?

Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo