Sky vs Liberty Predictions, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

The Liberty have had a difficult time covering large spreads but they have been fast out of the gates this season. So while covering a 16-point spread against a weak Sky team isn't necessarily appealing, targeting New York's early scoring prowess is.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 23, 2024 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read
Sabrina Ionescu New York Liberty WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Liberty look to improve to 5-0 when they host the Chicago Sky on tonight.

That unblemished record doesn’t mean much to WNBA bettors, however, as New York has managed to cover the spread in only one of those first four games. Oddsmakers — and my Sky vs. Liberty predictions — have New York laying the lumber tonight, setting it as 15-point home chalk.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this Eastern Conference clash and give my best WNBA picks on Wednesday, May 23.

Sky vs Liberty predictions

My best bet
New York Liberty first quarter Team Total Over 22.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

My analysis

The New York Liberty have come out firing in their first four games, putting up scores of 23, 25, 27, and 33 points in the first quarter of those contests. Unfortunately for those laying the points with New York, things tend to cool off in the final 30 minutes.

The Liberty are shooting almost 60% in first quarters this season, with their three biggest stars setting the tone. Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu are averaging at least 6.5 points in the initial frame so far this season.

That aggressive attack out of the gate will put the Chicago Sky on their heels. The Sky have only played two games — both versus the Dallas Wings — and have been off since May 18, leaving a five-day gap between actual game action.

The Sky faced a depleted Dallas team, especially in the second of that home-and-home set, with the Wings already missing Satou Sabally and losing star forward Natasha Howard to a foot injury in the season opener. Chicago held Dallas to 16 and 20 points in the opening quarters of those meetings, but the Libs are a different beast.

New York is a big step up in competition, with scary scoring depth and a first-quarter pace rating of 104.4 — third highest in the WNBA. Chicago is one of only two teams playing a quicker tempo in the opening quarter at 105.6. That means an up-and-down start to tonight, plenty of shots early on, and another high-scoring 1Q from the Liberty.

This derivative market is simply chopping the Liberty's team total of 90.5 O/U into quarters and not factoring in just how solid the offense has been in the first frame in 2024. New York is scoring almost 31% of its total points in the first quarter, averaging 27 1Q points compared to less than 19 per second quarter.

Sky vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)

Liberty 1Q TT Over 22.5

Sabrina Ionescu Over 4.5 rebounds

Liberty moneyline

New York comes out swinging and given the projected pace of this game, points should be flowing in the first 10 minutes.

Ionescu had a couple of quiet rebounding games while guarding perimeter threats. She’s projected for more than six boards against a high-volume shooting team like the Sky.

Even with my power ratings pumping out a spread of New York -17.5, I’ll play it safe with the Liberty moneyline for the SGP and benefit from bet365’s early payout should New York get up by 18 points at any time.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sky vs Liberty odds

Sky vs Liberty live odds

Get the latest Sky vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.

Sky vs Liberty opening odds

  • Spread: Chicago +15.5 (-110) | New York -15.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Chicago +1,000 | New York -2,000
  • Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 (-110)

Sky vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

  • New York opened between -15 and -16, with most books settling in at -15.5 before a move to -15 on Thursday morning.
  • The Liberty are 1-3 ATS to start the season — not the most appealing bet when laying this many points.
  • My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of New York -17.63.
  • The Over/Under hit the board at 165.5 and has come down half a point to 165 O/U.
  • Both New York and Chicago have split their opening games in terms of total results, with the Liberty 2-2 O/U and Sky at 1-1 O/U.
  • According to Covers Consensus data, 70% of picks are taking the points with the Sky while 54% of picks on the total are siding with the Over.

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Sky vs Liberty trend

The Over is 16-5 in the New York Liberty’s last 21 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Liberty.

Sky vs Liberty game info

Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Date: Thursday, 5-23, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Sky vs Liberty latest injuries

Sky: Diamond DeShields (questionable).
Liberty: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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