According to the calendar, it’s the final day of spring. That also means the 2023 WNBA season is a month old.
Before the summer sets in and tips off the race to the All-Star Game, we have three matchups on the WNBA odds board Tuesday. The Atlanta Dream visit the Dallas Wings in a non-conference clash, the L.A. Sparks face a familiar foe in the Minnesota Lynx, and the Seattle Storm host the Connecticut Sun.
Sides and totals are fine, but I jump into the individual odds and give my best WNBA prop picks and predictions for June 20.
WNBA player prop bets for June 20
- Parker Over 7.5 rebs
- Sabally Over 2.5 asts
- Jones Over 8.5 rebs
Picks made on June 20 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today's best WNBA player props bets
Cheyenne pepper
The Atlanta Dream have been a nightmare for recent opponents and are stunning their way up the Eastern Conference standings, bringing a three-game winning streak to Dallas tonight.
A big part of that push in the interior excellence from Cheyenne Parker. The veteran forward has been especially impactful on the glass, leading the team in rebounding with 7.1 boards per night.
Her player props are bouncing between 7.5 (Over -125) and 8.5 (Under -135) rebounds across different sportsbooks Tuesday afternoon. Player models are all calling for eight or more boards from the 6-foot-4 Parker — with a ceiling of 9.1 boards from some projections.
Tonight’s matchup with the Wings promises an up-tempo game as these clubs rank Top 2 in pace rating. Dallas and Atlanta also sit No. 1 and No. 3 respectively in field goal attempts per game, which means plenty of shots and a spike in rebounding opportunities.
Parker pulled down 11 rebounds when the Dream played the Wings at home in the season opener, and given the uptick in this total, game script is calling for a shootout. Parker has pulled down eight or more rebounds in five of her 10 outings this season.
Atlanta has been huge on the glass during its three-game streak, boasting a league-high 54.8% rebound rate in that span. Dallas — which was among the better teams on the boards this season — is running out a smaller lineup with starting center Teaira McCowan away for international play. She had nine rebounds in that first meeting with Atlanta.
Given some models are calling for just more than eight rebounds from Parker, we’ll pay the vig on the 7.5 Over -125 to get the shorter prop total before the market consensus moves to 8.5 O/U.
Cheyenne Parker prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at FanDuel)
Wind beneath the Wings
Dallas' do-it-all forward Satou Sabally is having a year. The fourth-year forward is stuffing the stat sheet with 20.9 points, 11 rebounds and more than three assists per game this season — making a quiet run up the WNBA MVP odds board.
Sabally’s scoring spike — going from 11.3 points per game in 2022 to close to 21 points this season — has started to draw closer coverage from rival defenses. With teams trying to take the ball out of her hands, Satou has seen an increase in her assist output in recent games.
She dished out four dimes in the loss to L.A. last Wednesday and then had five assists in an upset loss to Seattle on the weekend. Her assist projections for Tuesday’s home stand against Atlanta range from 3.2 to 3.6 against an Over/Under prop of 2.5 (Over -140).
The ceiling for three or more dimes is very high considering the game script for this non-conference clash. The total is up to as high as 173.5 (from an opener of 168.5) which means plenty of points to cash in those passes. Sabally’s milestone/alternative markets have five or more assists priced at +390, which isn’t a bad flyer if you're feeling greedy.
Satou Sabally prop: Over 2.5 assists (-140 at bet365)
Ms. Jones and me
The Connecticut Sun make the middle stop of a three-game Western road swing in Seattle tonight, with oddsmakers installing the East’s top team as hefty road chalk.
Connecticut is a deserving favorite with a roster stocked with talent, including long-time pillar Brionna Jones.
In her seventh season with the Sun, Jones is averaging more than 16 points and 8.5 rebounds an outing. That’s where bookies have her rebounding total parked tonight: 8.5 (Over -113). Jones’ player models are calling for closer to 10 rebounds with some projections as high as 10.5 boards.
The 6-foot-4 forward battles with a Storm frontcourt that struggles to keep foes off the glass, owning the second-worst rebound rate in the land (47.7%). Jones is especially active on the offensive glass, pulling in a league-high four offensive rebounds per contest.
Vig on Over 8.5 rebounds is climbing to -120 at some books, so shop around for the lower end of the price if you can. And if you want to take a gamble on 10+ boards from Brionna given the projections, that’s paying +160 on alternative totals.
Brionna Jones prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)
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