We live in an odd time. A meeting between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces is not one that drives many WNBA headlines right now.
The best rivalry in the league in recent years has fallen onto harder times as the Liberty are just 3-6 in their last nine games, while the Aces are barely in the playoff picture right now.
Yet, the superstars in this matchup demand a focus. These WNBA picks look at the reigning MVP and the best shooter in the league.
WNBA player prop bets for July 8
A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 points (-115)
Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3-pointers (-108)- Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 assists (-120)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
There may be an instinct to doubt A’ja Wilson these days as she has fallen short of this prop in 10 of 15 games this season, including in seven of her last 10 games.
But three of those shortcomings were just by the hook. Two of those moments came when she did not play more than 30 minutes because Las Vegas was enjoying a rout.
Tonight will be no such rout. A rivalry remains between the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty, even if the broader world is not paying attention in mid-July as Las Vegas plummets in the standings.
New York is missing its best (and arguably only) interior defender. The reigning MVP should exploit Jonquel Jones’s absence. The Liberty defense is still strong, ranking second in the WNBA, but realize it was first before Jones suffered her first sprained ankle this season.
In fact, it was at an 87.7 through seven games. In the 11 games since, New York has ranked No. 9 in defensive rating at 104.6 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Maybe the Liberty defense is not still strong. Wilson should prove that tonight.
Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3-pointers (-108 at FanDuel)
As Las Vegas struggles, Wilson and head coach Becky Hammon have regularly talked about retaining the defensive identity from their dynasty run. We have not seen that defense.
The Aces sit No. 9 in defensive rating this season, eight points per 100 possessions behind the Lynx’s No. 1 defense. Part of the problem is Las Vegas allows opponents to shoot 34.3% from beyond the arc, No. 10 in the WNBA.
Sabrina Ionescu may be the best shooter in the WNBA — she ranks fourth in percentage at 33.8% among players to have taken at least 100 threes this season — something obscured this season by her scuffling start. Remove Ionescu’s first four games of the season, when she went 6-of-24, and her percentage jumps to 35.7%.
She has not yet caught fire, but she has cleared this prop in her last three games while ticking further upward to 11-of-27 (40.7%).
This is the exact defense Ionescu should want to face as she finds her rhythm.
Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
The Liberty added Natasha Cloud to their injury report on Tuesday morning due to a hip worry, officially listing her as questionable. Media did not see her at the morning’s shootaround.
If Cloud is indeed sidelined, Ionescu’s ball-handling workload will skyrocket. Cloud leads New York in assist rate, assisting on 35% of teammates’ buckets when on the court.
Only Ionescu is within shouting distance of her at 29.9%. For that matter, Ionescu has already cleared this prop in four of her last six games.
Today’s WNBA games
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