When the business end of the WNBA season rolls around, the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty could see plenty of each other – and their showdown at Target Center headlines today’s slate.
The Atlanta Dream and Las Vegas Aces, who both expect to be part of the contender conversation too, are both in action, and my WNBA player props target big days from Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson.
Read on for my free WNBA picks for July 11.
Top WNBA player prop bets for today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Breanna Stewart |
Over 19.5 points | -112 |
 Bridget Carleton |
Over 3.5 rebounds | -125 |
 A'ja Wilson |
Over 9.5 rebounds | -135 |
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-112)
The New York Liberty's 13-9 record undersells the talent on this roster, especially when Breanna Stewart is playing at this level. This Over has been a winning ticket in four of her last five contests, and I'm going back to the well for today's clash with the Minnesota Lynx.
Stewart shredded the Lynx for 36 points last Friday at Barclays Center, making 14 of her 19 shots, and it's a matchup where Minnesota desperately misses Napheesa Collier, who's ramping up for her return but won't be involved here.
The Liberty have injury worries of their own, with Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally both out, and that should just put the ball in Stewart's hands more often to attack an overmatched Lynx frontcourt.
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABC
Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 rebounds (-125)
Bridget Carleton has made a steady adjustment from role player to central figure for the Portland Fire, and I'm expecting her impact to show up all over the box score today against the Atlanta Dream.
Carleton is best known for her 3-point shooting, but her work on the glass can go under the radar, and that makes this Over an appealing play. She's finished with 4+ boards in five of her past six outings, and it'll be all hands on deck here to slow down the Dream's rebounding threats.
Atlanta's fast pace should help create extra opportunities to clean the glass, and Carleton is logging a career-high 30.2 MPG this year in Portland.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CBS
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds (-135)
A'ja Wilson is back - and the Las Vegas Aces instantly look like WNBA title favorites again. That starts with her impact around the rim, where she continues to be the standout rebounder for Becky Hammon's squad.
Wilson ended up with a double-double on her return from injury in Portland on Thursday, and she had 15 boards in her prior outing against the Chicago Sky. So the stage is set for similar production tonight against the Phoenix Mercury.
She hauled in 10 boards against Phoenix last month, and I don't see Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner keeping her in check here. There's a nice floor for this prop, too, with Wilson grabbing 9+ rebounds in seven of her last eight games.
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Where to bet on WNBA player props
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