Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Keeping It on the Down Low

The Phoenix Mercury may have to find a way to win without superstar Brittney Griner when they visit the Washington Mystics on Friday night.

Phoenix (2-6) lost Griner in the second half of their loss to the Seattle Storm on Tuesday. She’s listed as doubtful for tonight’s game against Washington (5-4). 

The Mystics come in as heavy favorites over a Mercury team that will likely be shorthanded tonight. We’ll break down what this means for bettors in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Mystics on June 16.

Mercury vs Mystics best odds

Mercury vs Mystics picks and predictions

The Mercury have gotten off to a slow start in 2023. Despite being reinvigorated by the return of Griner after her imprisonment in Russia, Phoenix has struggled to find wins this year, with its only two wins coming against two of the weakest teams in the league: the Indiana Fever and the Minnesota Lynx.

The Mercury had a chance to get another win over an overmatched team on Tuesday, when they took on the Storm at home. Seattle had just one win on the season heading into the game, but ultimately walked away with a 14-point win over Phoenix.

The loss of Griner, who only played nine minutes, certainly didn’t help Phoenix. Without their star center, the Mercury struggled to even stay in the game at home against arguably the worst team in the WNBA. Griner is averaging 20.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game, production that Phoenix can’t easily make up for when she’s out of action.

That’s an acute issue against the Mystics, a team that brings a lot to the table in the paint. Power forward Elena Delle Donne leads Washington with 18.4 points per game. But while the two-time MVP is always a problem for any opposing defense, she’s not the only threat on the inside.

The Mystics also get huge contributions from Shakira Austin. The 22-year-old second-year center is averaging 12.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, and has helped establish Washington as one of the toughest teams to deal with in the paint.

Without Griner in the lineup, the Mercury will have a difficult time guarding the Washington bigs in the paint. Backup center Megan Gustafson might get more run than usual, but she’s just 6-foot-3, and is far from the imposing presence that Griner (6-foot-9) presents. Delle Donne and Austin are both 6-foot-5, not to mention more skilled than any of the other Phoenix post players. 

Washington should dominate in the paint tonight, and that should lead to lots of easy points. We’ve already seen how the Mercury struggled against a poor team without Griner in the lineup; now, we’ll get to see how much worse that situation gets when they face real star power in Delle Donne. I’m taking the Mystics to cover a double-digit spread at home tonight.

My best bet: Mystics -11.5 (-104)

Mercury vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mystics opened tonight’s game as an 11-point favorite. The number has moved a bit further in their favor since then, with the consensus line moving to Washington -11.5 as of noon on Friday. There are many books offering that number straight up, meaning that if you want to bet on the Mercury, you can get +11.5 at -110. 

Both teams are playing a bit worse than expected so far this season. Washington is just 2-7 against the spread, while Phoenix isn’t much better, going 3-5 ATS in 2023. 

Phoenix had lost three of its last four games even with Griner in the lineup, before getting blown out at home by the Seattle Storm when she didn’t play. I don’t expect the Mercury to rush Griner back into the lineup tonight. That’s a problem considering they’re on the road against a solid team that has a strong interior presence. This game should be a blowout win for Washington, and that’s why I’m backing the Mystics on the spread.

The total for tonight’s game opened at 158 points. However, the Over/Under has dropped to 156.5 at most sites, likely because of Griner’s doubtful status. You can get the Over at a flat 156 with -110 odds at some sites, while the best Under available is -110 at 156.5 points. 

Phoenix has played evenly to both sides of the total this year, with the Over going 4-4 in Mercury games. Washington has consistently been playing below the number, however, with the Under going 1-8 when the Mystics play.

The Mystics have hit the Under in six consecutive games, and have done so by more than 15 points in four of those games. Phoenix will struggle to score a bit tonight without Griner on the floor, which should depress the total even further. I’m leaning towards the Under in tonight’s game.  

Mercury vs Mystics betting trend to know

The Mercury are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Mystics.

Mercury vs Mystics game info

Mercury vs Mystics key injuries

Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Doubtful), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Mystics: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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