New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Liberty Continue to Struggle ATS

The Liberty haven't been world-beaters thus far, but are still being priced like it. With the Dream proving themselves feisty underdogs, our WNBA picks are fading the favorites tonight in ATL.

Last Updated: Jun 9, 2023 2:41 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Cheyenne Parker WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Liberty will look to bounce back from their second loss of the season when they visit the Atlanta Dream as heavy WNBA odds favorites on Friday night.

New York (4-2) came into the year as one of the two supposed WNBA “superteams,” but haven’t been early as impressive as expected. Atlanta (2-3) will likely be among the teams fighting for the final playoff spots this season, but it’s looked solid against strong competition in recent outings.

The Dream have just come off one of their best performances of the season, losing by only five to the powerhouse Las Vegas Aces. We’ll take a look at whether they can compete against New York at home in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Dream on June 9. 

Liberty vs Dream best odds

Liberty vs Dream picks and predictions

When the Liberty added former WNBA MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, and four-time All-Star guard Courtney Vandersloot to the roster in this offseason, New York thought it was building a championship team that could go toe-to-toe with the Aces in 2023. 

So far, the new players are providing big returns. Stewart is averaging 23.7 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, while Vandersloot is dishing out 8.8 assists per night. Yet the Liberty haven’t been getting quite the results they want out of their so-called superteam in the early going.

The Liberty are a solid but unremarkable 4-2 on the season, and have generally underperformed expectations. In their last two games, the Liberty split a pair of contests with the Chicago Sky, scoring a one-point road win before dropping a home game 86-82 on Sunday. There’s no reason whatsoever to think New York is in any trouble, but this team doesn’t seem to be gelling just yet. 

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is off to a promising start. Sure, the Dream may only be 2-3 on the year, but they’ve put up a positive point differential and have shown they can hang with even the top teams in the league. They have an 18-point win over the same Sky team that the Liberty have struggled with, and held their own against the Aces last Friday, nearly completing a second-half comeback before falling five points short. 

The breakout star has been Cheyenne Parker. The nine-year veteran forward has always been a solid rotation player, but has taken her game to a new level early this season. Parker is averaging 17.2 points per game and bringing down 7.6 boards per night, both career highs. Along with second-year guard Rhyne Howard (17.2 ppg) and new addition Allisha Gray (16.8 ppg), Atlanta now has a solid core that could already make it a tough out in the playoffs.

These trends don’t make the Dream a better team than the Liberty. However, they do show that the gap isn’t nearly as large as we thought it was before the season. This is a game that Atlanta can and should compete in, especially at home. And while the Liberty might find their way later in the season, they aren’t a dominant force in this league right now.

Sportsbooks haven’t yet adjusted to this fact. At many sites, we can still get a generous 7.5 points if we take the Dream tonight. With Atlanta at home, this is a huge number, and all signs are that they can cover tonight. I’m taking the Dream with the points.

My best bet: Dream +7.5 (-113)

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Liberty vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened tonight’s game as seven-point favorites. There are a variety of lines out there on the market right now, and as I noted above, you can get the Dream with a 7.5-point spread. If you’re looking to bet on New York, you can give 6.5 points instead at some books.

Each of these teams has defied expectations, and despite the fact that New York has been the better team on paper, it’s Atlanta that has the superior mark against the spread. The Liberty have been favored in every game, but are just 2-4 ATS, while the Dream have put up a 3-2 ATS mark on the season. 

I already outlined why I think the Dream are the smart play on the spread tonight, so instead, let’s dive into whether there’s any reason to take Atlanta on the moneyline as well. We can get +270 on the Dream, in a home game against an underperforming Liberty squad. It’s not my favorite bet, but I’m not against this play either if you can get the longest odds possible on Atlanta.

Tonight’s total opened at 163.5 points. That number has held steady, though you can also find some books offering 163 without the hook at the moment. Atlanta has been playing fast and averaging totals of 165.4 points per game, while the Liberty are just a bit more deliberate at an average total of 156.3 points. 

This number is high, and Atlanta may not be able to push the pace against a Liberty team that is among the slowest in the WNBA. I’m leaning toward the Under in tonight’s game.

Liberty vs Dream betting trend to know

The Liberty are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Dream.

Liberty vs Dream game info

Location: Gateway Center Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date: Friday, June 9, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET

Liberty vs Dream key injuries

Liberty: None.
Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out), Danielle Robinson G (Out), Iliana Rupert C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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