Mercury vs Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Phoenix's Griner Rises to the Occasion

Two teams looking to move up in the standings this year will face off on Friday as the Phoenix Mercury visit the Los Angeles Sparks to start their respective 2023 WNBA seasons. 

Los Angeles finished last in the Western Conference in 2022 with a 13-23 record. Phoenix was just two games better at 15-21, though that was good enough to snag the final playoff spot.

The Mercury will get a huge lift this season thanks to the return of Brittney Griner. We’ll look at how Griner’s presence will impact this game in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Sparks on May 19.

Mercury vs Sparks best odds

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Mercury vs Sparks picks and predictions

A huge shadow hung over the 2023 season for the Phoenix Mercury. Brittney Griner missed the season after being arrested on drug smuggling charges in Russia for carrying vape cartridges containing small amounts of hash oil. While Griner would eventually be released and returned to the United States as part of a prisoner swap in December, she missed the entirety of the 2022 WNBA season.

The Griner arrest and imprisonment became a major international issue, overshadowing any impact it had on the basketball world. But there was no doubt that Griner’s absence hurt Phoenix both in terms of missing her production and in morale, as her teammates worried about her safety in Russia.

Griner has been one of the best players in the WNBA since her rookie season in 2013. She is a seven-time All-Star, a five-time All-WNBA First Team player, and a two-time Defensive Player of the Year. In four of her past five seasons, Griner has averaged over 20 points per game. In each of those seasons, she has also averaged at least seven rebounds and 1.8 blocks. Simply put, Griner is one of the most dominant two-way players women’s basketball has ever seen.

It's hard to know exactly what to expect from Griner in her return to play after a year off. There may be some rust, and the Mercury might ease her back into the offensive flow. On the other hand, there may be few teams that present a better matchup for Griner than the Los Angeles Sparks.

Along with her impressive skills, Griner is adept at using her size and physicality to overwhelm smaller opponents. Griner comes in at 6-foot-9, dwarfing much of her competition. That will be the case on Friday, as the Sparks have only one player over 6-foot-9. Former Connecticut Huskies standard Azura Stevens is 6-foot-6, but generally served as a rotational player for the Chicago Sky, averaging 21.9 minutes. It’s unclear how heavily Los Angeles will lean on her to guard Griner. 

The Mercury are a completely different team with Griner in the lineup. They’ll be looking to contend in the WNBA Championship odds for the second time in three years, and can go back to playing with the bigger, more experienced lineup that they found success with in 2021. And the heart of that team’s offense was Griner, who scored 20.5 points per game in that campaign.

Expect to see that dynamic in full force on Friday against an undersized Sparks team. Griner’s points prop sits at just 17.5 points, and while it’s understandable why oddsmakers don’t want to go too high right off the bat, this matchup is tailormade for Griner. I’m taking the Over.

My best bet: Griner Over 17.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)

Mercury vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Los Angeles Sparks opened as a 2.5-point home favorite in the WNBA odds for tonight’s matchup, a number that has held firm as of noon on Friday. However, if you want to bet on the home team, you can find Sparks -1.5 as the main line at some books.

The Sparks and the Mercury split four games last season, but both teams are very different from the squads that matched up in 2022. We’ve already talked about what Griner means to Phoenix, but Los Angeles also made changes in the offseason. Curt Miller is in as head coach, while Karen Bryant has taken over as general manager. The team is still led by sisters Chiney and Nneka Ogwumike, but has added depth with players like Azura Stevens and Dearica Hamby. 

Still, the biggest difference from last year will be Griner, and she should be able to go to work in this matchup. I’m leaning towards the Mercury and the points tonight.

The Over/Under on this game opened at 158.5, with the consensus total falling a bit to 158 at the time of this writing. There’s a lot of variance between books, however. You can get the Over as low as 157, or take the Under at 159 at some sites.

Last year, both teams played well above that opening number. Phoenix averaged a total of 165.2, while the Sparks came in at an average of 166 points. Phoenix should be better on defense this season with Griner in the low post, which will also free up the 6-foot-4 Brianna Turner to shift back to power forward. Anyone who wants to beat the Mercury will likely be looking to do so from the perimeter. 

Still, this number feels a little low when you consider the offensive talent on both rosters. I’m looking at the Over as the better play tonight, especially if you can shop around for one of the lower numbers on the market.

Mercury vs Sparks betting trend to know

Brittney Griner has scored 18+ points in eight of her last 10 regular season WNBA games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mystics.

Mercury vs Sparks game info

Mercury vs Sparks key injuries

Mercury: S. Cunningham (Out), M. Gustafson (Out), S. Peddy (Out), S. Diggins-Smith (Out)

Sparks: A. Stevens (Out), J. Thomas (Out), D. Hamby (Out), K. Samuelson (Out)

Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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