The New York Liberty emerged victorious in Game 1 with a 76-69 OT win against the Phoenix Mercury on the road. Back at Barclays Center for Game 2, the Liberty will look to close out the first-round series and advance to the semifinals.
However, my Mercury vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks expect the Mercury to cover and force a winner-take-all Game 3 in Phoenix behind another all-around showing from Alyssa Thomas on Wednesday, September 17.
Mercury vs Liberty predictions
My Mercury vs Liberty best bet: Mercury moneyline (+125)
Game 1 didn’t go quite the way the Phoenix Mercury wanted, but they have plenty of reasons to be optimistic heading into Game 2 on the road.
In Game 1, the Mercury shot a dreadful 32.5% from the floor and 23.1% from beyond the arc, both significantly lower than their respective season-long marks of 43.3% and 34%. The Mercury were among the Top 5 in rebounds per game during the regular season, but they were crushed 48-31 on the glass.
The Mercury’s 13.5 turnovers per game during the regular season ranked fifth in the W, though Phoenix lost the turnover battle 21-11 in Game 1. Despite the home team's poor efficiency and ball security, the New York Liberty still needed overtime to win.
Breanna Stewart is banged up, and the Liberty will miss her tremendous two-way play if she’s unable to take the court. Her potential absence only sweetens this pick. Facing elimination and with nowhere to go but up, I expect the Mercury to come away with a win and send this series back to Phoenix for Game 3.
Mercury vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury moneyline
Under 159
Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 assists + rebounds
Game 1 went to overtime, and even with the extra 15 combined points, the game total was only 145. Phoenix and New York have hit the Under in three straight head-to-head matchups, and I expect another low-scoring affair. Points will be at a premium for New York if Stewart is out, and Phoenix’s defense will be desperate to secure a win in this elimination game. Both teams hit the Over only 18 times in 44 regular-season matchups.
Thomas averaged exactly 18 assists+rebounds during the regular season. Not counting the season finale in which she played only 13 minutes, she went for at least 18 in four straight. Thomas posted 17 in Game 1, but she averaged 20.3 in four regular-season matchups with New York and hit the Over three times. Expect another do-it-all performance as she helps her team fight off elimination on the road.
Mercury vs Liberty odds
Mercury vs Liberty live odds
Mercury vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +4.5 (-110) | New York -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +165 | New York -200
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Liberty trend
Phoenix won and covered the spread in three of four regular-season meetings with New York. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Liberty.
How to watch Mercury vs Liberty
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, September 17, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mercury vs Liberty latest injuries
Mercury: None.
Liberty: Breanna Stewart F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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