Everything about this WNBA Finals matchup points to a long, tense series, and there’s every reason to think tonight’s Game 2 will follow a similar script to Friday’s dramatic opener.
The Las Vegas Aces’ bench boost swung Game 1 and could be the X-factor again here as Becky Hammon’s squad tries to take a firmer grip on the series, but I’m turning to a trio of playoff veterans for my favorite Mercury vs. Aces props.
Check out my Top 3 WNBA picks for this October 5 battle.
Mercury vs Aces props
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Thomas o33.5 pts + rebs + asts |
-106 |
 Wilson o3.5 asts |
+102 |
| Bonner o8.5 pts |
-120 |
Alyssa Thomas Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists
Alyssa Thomas isn’t going to hide after her costly missed free throws late in Game 1. The Phoenix Mercury are depending on her to be a factor all over the box score, just as she was in the Finals opener, and I like the Over on this combo prop.
Thomas has gone past this number in four straight contests. Her uptick in scoring stands out in this postseason — she’s scored 18+ points in five of her last six outings — but she’s been rock solid across the board, with 8+ rebounds in six straight games and 8+ assists in five of her past six matchups.
You’ve got to consider Thomas’ overall postseason averages, too — 18.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG and 9.1 APG. This is the time of year when she consistently hits top gear.
With Phoenix desperate to level the series, I don’t expect Thomas to get much of a breather. She’s logged 36+ minutes in all but one of the Mercury’s games on this playoff run, and that sets this up as a nice volume play.
A’ja Wilson Over 3.5 assists
+102 at FanDuelThe Mercury did a nice job of limiting A’ja Wilson as a scorer in Game 1, holding the MVP to 7-for-16 shooting.
That represented a big drop in attempts for Wilson, who had jacked up 71 shots across her prior three outings, but it also unlocked more of her playmaking skills.
Wilson dished five dimes on Friday, and she’s logged 4+ assists in three of her past four contests. She also had seven helpers against Phoenix back in June.
In the face of physical defense and swarming double teams, Wilson has shown she trusts her Las Vegas Aces teammates to make the big shots, and I expect her to lean on Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd again in Game 2.
DeWanna Bonner Over 8.5 points
In this series, DeWanna Bonner will feel more like a starter than a bench cog. Her post defense is a critical part of the Phoenix game plan against Wilson, and she chipped in with 10 points and eight rebounds in Game 1.
She ended up with that points total despite only shooting 4-for-13 from the field, and it’s reasonable to expect a more efficient effort here, especially with her work on the offensive glass leading to second-chance buckets.
Bonner scored 13 points in the Mercury’s semifinals clincher against the Minnesota Lynx, and her playoff experience is a nice card for Nate Tibbetts to have up his sleeve.
Don’t be surprised if her workload continues to climb, starting with tonight’s showdown, and I’m taking the Over on this modest 8.5-point line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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